In fantasy there are always the underappreciated guys who do nothing but produce yet never get the respect they deserve. When thinking of specific players, one of the first names that come to my mind is Lamar Miller. Lamar Miller is someone I am buying in both redraft and dynasty. There are many reasons you should be buying at his current 6th round redraft and dynasty (according to Dynasty Football Factory’s) ADP. While Miller’s ADP is in the 6th round, I have seen him go as low as the 7th in redraft and 8th in a dynasty startup I was recently in (my draft recap can be found here).
When I mention to people they should buy Lamar Miller the two most common responses I get is that he has “hasn’t produced for the Texans” and that D’Onta Foreman is going to take the job from him. These statements could not be further from the truth, and I will argue against both.
There are four running backs who have had over 1k total yards every season over the last 4 years. Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram and Lamar Miller. Miller has actually had over 1,200 total yards in each of the previous 4 years. That is as consistent as consistent gets! Miller has done this on bad teams throughout his career, imagine what he could do in a good offense. Oh wait, we got to see Miller with Deshaun Watson for eight games last season. In those eight weeks, Miller was the RB8 overall. Below, courtesy of RotoViz Game Splits app, is a split of Miller’s stats last season with and without Watson.
When it comes to dynasty, one of the more common concerns you hear about Miller is that he’s “old”. It does feel like Miller’s been around forever but believe it or not he is only 27. Though Miller recently turned 27, compared to players drafted in the same class (courtesy Pro Football Reference), the season prior or after, he does carry less wear and tear.
According to Dynasty League Football’s trade finder, there have been multiple trades of Lamar Miller for 2nd round rookie picks in the last month, so he can be had for cheap in some leagues. We know he has constant high-end production year after year and he isn’t at the end of his career.
Time for the Foreman argument. D’Onta Foreman was starting to force more of a timeshare and did show some signs of big play ability. Then Foreman’s season ended abruptly week 11 with an Achilles’ tendon injury. Dynasty Football Factory’s MD Eric Fjeldheim posted an article about Foreman’s injury here. As you can see the likelihood that Foreman returns to form is slim and there have even been rumors about him starting the season on PUP.
Furthermore, the Texan’s did not use any draft capital on running back. Even if you think Foreman will come back, there is close to 0 percent chance the Texans let him take over the lead back role. They are paying Miller a good chunk of salary, coming off his 4th straight 1,200-yard season. Even if the Texans do believe in Foreman, they will want to bring him back slowly. Miller is also a free agent next year, and even if he moves on from Houston, he will likely be able to land a starting gig somewhere else based on his three-down abilities. At his current redraft and dynasty ADP, he is one of the guys I’m finding it easiest to hit the draft button on. Thanks for reading, remember you can follow me on Twitter at @FFLinx.
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