Evaluating the quarterback position for NFL teams has always been an imperfect science much like trying to predict weekly FanDuel DFS odds. Tom Brady and Brock Purdy once resided in the Mariana Trench of NFL talent evaluators only to later emerge as top-tier Dynasty starters. Meanwhile, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Ryan Leaf, Sam Darnold, JaMarcus Russell, Mitch Trubisky, Josh Rosen, and perhaps even Bryce Young fell precipitously from the apex of NFL talent evaluation.
Fortunately, though, Dynasty managers do not have to be quarterback evaluation savants. It always amuses me of those who attempt to be when they have no business doing so. In the immortal words of Socrates “Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers.” In other words, the smartest people know what they don’t know.
So here is my declaration to you. “I can not evaluate the quarterback position better than NFL teams.”
There are so many subtle nuances to quarterback evaluation, unlike other positions. Forgive me if this sounds narcissistic, but I am extremely confident in my wide receiver and tight end prospect evaluation relative to NFL teams (especially when compared to my New England Patriots!) and my track record can prove it. Evaluating the wide receiver position is a lot more objective than subjective. While I still continue to improve evaluating running backs, I still rely on the opinions of certain experts whom I trust to incorporate into my evaluation.
Bill Belichick’s 1991 scouting notes for the QB position were famously released after he was hailed as a genius for discovering Tom Brady in the 6th round.
“#1 is to make good decisions — then arm, size, physically tough, leadership, guys look up to and have confidence in, a real competitor, Accurate rather than guy with a cannon. Emphasis on our game will be on decision, timing, accuracy — guy needs to be confident, intelligence is important but not as much so as field awareness & judgment. Can’t be sloppy fundamentally unsound guy with ball handling, [techniques] etc.”
This brings us to Jayden Daniels. Daniels won the Heisman on the heels of a historic year. He had 40 touchdowns and 4 interceptions to go along with 3813 yards passing and an incredible 208 passing efficiency rating.
Looks amazing right? How could he possibly be bad?
Well, it is important to remember that this was his fifth year of playing the position in which experience matters most. The very best prospects usually come out after their third year of college. If Daniels came out after his third year, he very likely would have been undrafted. In his junior year at Arizona St., he threw for a rocky stat line of just 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The prior two years both had a completion percentage under 61%.
This brings us to the point where the above really doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things. This is because there are two things we know to be facts about Jayden Daniels.
- His draft capital will be cemented before rookie drafts. It is projected to be top 15 in many mock drafts.
- His rushing profile is elite.
A Comparison
Fact one is important because it gives him tremendous job security. The top 15 quarterbacks are given every chance to succeed. Late-round quarterback picks are given every chance to fail. Justin Fields is a good player to model Jayden Daniels’s floor after. Fields was drafted 11th overall. His NFL career to date by real-life standards has been wholly uninspiring. Quarterbacks drafted round three or later may not have lasted six games if they had his resume. He has completion percentages of 58.9%, 60.4%, and 61.0% in his first three years. These are terrible by modern-day standards. His yards per attempt have consistently been towards the bottom of the league, and he is the 22nd-ranked QB in both EPA and QBR. QB connoisseurs, such as former NFL QB and owner of the QB School YouTube channel J. T. O’Sullivan, shred Justin Fields regularly on his on-field prowess. He simply hasn’t made the improvements you would like to see at this stage of his career whether it be in processing, footwork, or decision-making.
Yet here he is three years later, still with a job, and miraculously some continue to make arguments that the Chicago Bears should not draft a quarterback first overall when there may be the next Patrick Mahomes there. Now, while it is unlikely Caleb Williams is Patrick Mahomes, we know for a fact Justin Fields is not. He isn’t even a league-average quarterback after his third year of starting. He is also going into the last year of his rookie year contract. It would be astonishing to me if the Bears didn’t draft Caleb Williams. The quarterback position is far too important to settle for mediocrity. Fields has been given every chance to succeed.
QB Rushing
What Daniels and Fields also have in common is their exceptional rushing ability. It is not hyperbole to say Jayden Daniels is the best-rushing quarterback prospect since Lamar Jackson. The only player to rival him is Kyler Murray. Daniels was a far more accomplished rusher in college than Fields.
Daniels rushed for 1134 yards and 10 touchdowns this year at LSU with an 8.4 yards per carry average. PFF scored him with a rare 90-plus grade in both passing and rushing.
In researching this article, I came across this stat on Twitter:
That is Dynasty royalty right there outside of Johnny Manziel, who partied himself right out of the NFL.
Kyler Murray has finished as a QB1 in all five years of his career. Prime Deshaun Watson had four straight years of top 5 Fantasy PPG finishes. Lamar Jackson has five straight top 10 Fantasy PPG finishes. Jalen Hurts has three straight top 6 Fantasy PPG finishes including a 2nd and 1st finish the last two years.
Value Insulation
The elite rushing ability means, if he starts, Daniels is nearly a lock to be a QB1. Now let’s revisit the value insulation conversation.
This is a chart of Justin Fields’ Dynasty value over the last three years.
Despite never proving to be a better-than-league-average QB and with his future in tremendous doubt, Fields is still valued as the QB14 overall by the Dynasty community. He has been between QB10 and QB14 for most of his career.
Why? Because he is a starter producing at a high clip for Fantasy. He is QB7 in fantasy PPG this year. Job security is a fatal flaw in many Dynasty manager’s player evaluations. This brings us back to Daniels. If Daniels gets top 15 draft capital he has a high probability of starting a minimum of two years and likely three to four. If he starts, he has a high probability of being a QB1. Dynasty managers have a short memory—it was always highly likely Jordan Addison would outscore Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
It is highly likely Daniels outscores both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in Dynasty his first two years. When that happens he will be right there in valuation to both of them. The key will be when to move off of him if he is not proving to be a good real-life quarterback. You have two to three years to make that decision though and in the meantime reap the benefits of a QB1.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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