How to Manage the Chaos at Running Back for Dynasty

“A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffet

The running back situation for Dynasty is in a state of utter chaos. Dynasty contenders are shaking in their boots as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard and Dalvin Cook are each embroiled in separate contract disputes. There are talks from their camps of hold-outs looming. When in situations like this, I ask myself what would Warren Buffet do if he was in my Dynasty league. Well, I am pretty sure he would be saturating the market with lowball trade offers for Barkley, Ekeler, Pollard, and Jacobs. 

We play Dynasty to win championships. The opportunity to obtain elite difference-making talent does not come along unless there are some red flags to go with it. If a Dynasty league owner has a Barkley or Ekeler type still on their roster they likely perceive themself as a contender. They may be willing to trade one of them to diversify their roster portfolio and reduce their risk exposure.

While the current financial system in the NFL certainly is detrimental to running backs, the best solutions may only affect future stars instead of the current ones. A big problem currently is that the best running backs aren’t able to hit free agency until the point in their careers where they are on the wrong side of their productivity arc. As part of the new CBA shorter first contract for running backs would be a potential solution to allowing them to hit the market while their productivity apex is still ascending. The NFL team will pay for what you will do, not what you have done. While they may never get paid like elite talent I find it hard to believe they will forego millions when that is exactly what they are trying to obtain.

If teams keep winning Super Bowls with seventh-round running backs like Isiah Pacheco there is no logic in paying big money to the position. It has proven not to be a winning formula. 

Here are the leading rushers for Superbowl-winning teams and their salaries.

Now let’s look at the players to see which ones you should target.

Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler has made $20M in the NFL and is nearing the end at 28 years old. He wants that one final payday but at the same time, I doubt he holds out. He can’t afford to sit out at this late stage of his career. Ekeler has long been one of my favorite Dynasty assets. His receiving brilliance greatly reduces his production volatility as we see from other running backs. Ekeler has four straight years as a top-10 running back in Fantasy PPG. He finished first overall last year and second the year prior. 

In addition to a potential holdout risk, Ekeler is also old for an RB at 28. Other receiving backs, such as Darren Sproles and Brian Westbrook, have also proven to have longer-lasting careers than traditional high-volume rushers. At a cost of just RB12 Ekeler is a pretty safe investment with a relatively low risk of holding out and still multiple years of high-end Dynasty production. The age is definitely baked into his cost.

Josh Jacobs

Jacobs has earned $12M in his career to date. He is coming off his best season finishing as the RB3 overall for Fantasy. He does lean on his rushing more than the other backs on this list so he is likely to have more year-to-year volatility.

Jacobs seems like a fairly legitimate risk to hold out. This man grew up homeless and I believe the principle of improving the situation for all running backs in the future is a big deal for him. 

Saquon Barkley

At $38.6M, Saquon has earned the most money of these four running backs by far. He is also just 26 years old. So from a financial standpoint, he is more secure than the others and has a better chance to secure a bag when he returns from his holdout. Barkley along with Jacobs seem like the biggest holdout risks. Of course, Barkley’s recent media blitz is largely posturing. He is just pulling out any cards he can to create leverage. At the same time, Barkley also has the potential to be the biggest difference-maker for fantasy teams. He has finished as a top-seven fantasy asset in three of his four qualified seasons in the NFL. Included in this was a historic 24.0 Fantasy points per game his rookie year.

Tony Pollard

Pollard has the least intrinsic holdout risk of the big four. He signed his franchise tag and will be playing in 2023. I love Pollard for Fantasy this year. He has been efficient with his volume his entire career. At the same time, he has never had a workhorse type of load. So the question is can he maintain that efficiency? I would be shocked if we weren’t in this same position with Pollard next year also. So once he balls out I would be looking to move him for a nice ransom. He has only made $3.9M to this point in his career. 

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the annual membership here. It truly is the best value in the Dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.