With the NFL Draft quickly approaching later this month, Dynasty managers are evaluating their rosters and determining who to select with their rookie draft picks. Prospect profiles and understanding how each new rookie’s landing spot affects the current NFL landscape are key to building a successful Dynasty team.
But before we get there, you might need to make some moves to make space for those rookies or to trade for picks themselves. Here are some players I think are being overvalued more than they should be and who I’m trying to move before their values plummet later this offseason.
Within this article, the fantasy player rankings and PPR finishes were pulled from Sleeper, while the actual season statistics were from ESPN.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Everyone has heard about Rashee Rice’s off-the-field distractions, but I’ve had my on-field questions as well. For the upcoming season, he very well could be looking at some kind of suspension. This is a huge question looming over his head.
Then, production-wise, I was never entirely on his bandwagon either, as he only finished as WR27 overall in full PPR formats. As a rookie, that’s not a bad first year. However, his usage regarding overall target share worries me with Mahomes at QB, who likes to keep the opponent off balance and spread the ball around evenly. The biggest red flag on his rookie season is that his average target depth is just 4.7 yards, ranking as the WR96 overall. So, most of his production comes from manufacturing yards after the catch.
His 2023 season was a tale of two halves. From weeks one through nine, Rice only broke 10 PPR points just three times. Then, after their Week 10 bye, Rice broke 10 PPR points in five out of seven weeks. This is a crazy split, but we sometimes tend to see a change in team philosophy coming out of a bye week. However, he only had two top-10 finishes on the year. Everyone is always looking for that next breakout star, similar to what Amon-Ra St. Brown did a year ago. However, St. Brown was the focal point in that Lions offense and didn’t have a target hurdle to overcome like Rice does with Travis Kelce, and now Marquise Brown is in the fold as well.
I know Rice has who’s considered the best quarterback in the game throwing him the football, but these are all legitimate concerns regarding his late-season surge. In addition, if the Chiefs draft a rookie receiver (as many experts are predicting in the early rounds), all of these factors cast even more doubt on him exceeding his 2023 statistics. For all of these reasons, I’m out on Rice being a true WR1, but this is more of a cautious sell.
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Talk about enigmas. George Pickens falls into this category as someone who frustrates fantasy owners, as he dazzles with his talent, but his production is lackluster.
Like Rice, Pickens is a wide receiver who has had inconsistent production as he finished WR30 in PPR formats this past season. He had only six out of seventeen weeks when he put up 10 PPR points or more with only four top-10 finishes. He’s shown the flashes with a 41.5 PPR output in Week 16 but lacks overall consistency for what you look for in a true number-one wide receiver. He has the ability necessary for cross and curl routes, which would equate to more targets, increasing his fantasy production. But most of his catches are deep patterns, as in 2023 when he averaged a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch.
Going forward, even with Pickens being the WR1 after the Diontae Johnson trade, there’s a lot of talk about either drafting or, more likely, a trade for San Francisco WR Brandon Aiyuk after he reportedly requested to be moved. The Steelers are rumored to be one of the top destinations for Aiyuk. With all of this, we haven’t even discussed the Steelers’ offensive woes the past few seasons and that they have a potential quarterback controversy. I can’t bank on Pickens taking the next step, so I’m selling him and finding someone who believes his talent will match his production one day.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
As we head into the NFL Draft, the running back position is the one I watch the closest regarding veterans. The case can be made that for now, the 29-year-old Aaron Jones, a solid addition for the Vikings as their RB1 this season, is an upgrade for them over Alexander Mattison. But in terms of Dynasty value, I see him as a great sell-high candidate.
The talented Jones finished as RB37 in PPR formats mainly because of injury. But, when healthy, he produces, as he showed in Week 1 when he put up a season-high 25.7 PPR points before battling hamstring and knee injuries for most of the season. In the last three weeks of 2023, he also finished strong once healthy by rushing for at least 112 yards in each game.
Due to his injury history and Jones being in a potential committee with the talented Ty Chandler who will help take some of his load and limit his production, Jones is a trade candidate for me because his strong finish will appeal to a contending manager. The Vikings could also be looking at a young running back later in the draft to groom and potentially take over if they don’t believe in Jones or Chandler as the long-term option.
Now is the time to sell the aging but productive running back from a Dynasty perspective.
Gus Edwards (RB – LAC)
Similar to Jones, as we’re quickly approaching the draft, Gus Edwards’ grasp on the RB1 position with the Chargers has me very nervous long-term. With Jim Harbaugh taking over, the Chargers are embarking on a retool, if not a full rebuild, and I can’t see their plans later in the year involving the 29-year-old running back. Even though he signed a two-year deal, it only guarantees him 3.75 million out of the 9 million, making it feel like a one-year deal. He was RB25 in PPR formats with only four top twenty weekly finishes, and his role will likely be no different. On top of that, he’s typically been a touchdown-dependent back and has limitations in the passing game, with only 37 career targets.
Sure, he’s coming over from Baltimore and is a favorite of offensive coordinator Greg Roman from their time with the Ravens. But I absolutely see the Chargers drafting a young running back with the potential of taking the starting job at some point during the 2024 season. Blake Corum, Harbaugh’s ex-player from his time in Michigan, makes too much sense here.
Now is the time to sell, as I can’t see him improving. The Chargers are also likely to bring in a young running back, making Edwards’ leash one of the shortest in the NFL. So, with Edwards currently near his peak value this offseason, I’m out on him for Dynasty.
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)
Logically, after the Stefon Diggs trade to the Texans earlier this month, we can likely temper expectations for all pass catchers in this offense, including the 27-year-old Dalton Schultz. Even with a position that’s typically sparse, there are now too many mouths to feed in this offense. Besides C.J. Stroud, I believe everyone gets downgraded with the trade.
Schultz finished as TE10 in PPR formats, so he holds great value in the fantasy and Dynasty community, but he’s now part of an offense with so many targets to spread around. In addition, he’s coming off a 2023 season where he was inconsistent, only surpassing 10 or more PPR points in six out of seventeen games. Schultz isn’t flashy, but he posts solid numbers at a typically weak tight end position as he’s averaged about 65 catches and six touchdowns, both of which are expected to decrease with more stars now on offense for the Texans.
If I were a Schultz owner, I’d try to sell sooner rather than later, and the fact that he’s in a potentially high-powered offense may appeal to other Dynasty managers.
Conclusion
These five players have me super nervous as we draw nearer to the NFL Draft in Detroit. Now is the time to sell these veterans. So don’t let your league catch you sleeping; it’ll cost you in the standings. Sell these players now before their value sinks in the next few weeks.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you gained some valuable information. If you have any questions or you’d like additional insight and analysis, please follow me on Twitter/X at @MonicasHubby. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
