Welcome to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. During this series, we will break down one player from each team whose stock is going down and whose stock is going up. Every team will be broken down before we get to the regular season. Today is all about the Buffalo Bills. For more from this series, check out my latest article as I deep dive into the Cincinnati Bengals.
STOCK UP – CURTIS SAMUEL
| Year | Team | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2017 | CAR | 9 | 26 | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 0 |
| 2018 | CAR | 13 | 65 | 39 | 494 | 12.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | CAR | 16 | 105 | 54 | 627 | 11.6 | 6 |
| 2020 | CAR | 15 | 97 | 77 | 851 | 11.1 | 3 |
| 2021 | WAS | 5 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2022 | WAS | 17 | 92 | 64 | 656 | 10.3 | 4 |
| 2023 | WAS | 16 | 91 | 62 | 613 | 9.9 | 4 |
At this point in the offseason, it feels more like a “take your pick on the Bill’s WR1.” After shipping Stefon Diggs off to Houston and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency (signed with the Jaguars), the Bills need someone to step up into the lead receiving role. Curtis Samuel could be in line for that role, but the team also retains Khalil Shakir and added Keon Coleman in the draft. They also brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool. Samuel, Coleman, and Shakir seem to be the favorites going into training camp, but the likes of second-year pro tight end Dalton Kincaid could see the biggest production jump out of them all.
Here’s why you should be high on Samuel and why you should believe he’s a long-term receiver for your dynasty roster(s). For starters, he didn’t sign a short-term deal to move to Buffalo. The Bills brought him in on a three-year $24M contract. Sure, the deal isn’t super lucrative, but he’s coming in with $13,110,000 of the contract guaranteed. Samuel also has shown consistency when healthy during his seven-year career. He’s topped 600 receiving yards four times, and he has finished as a WR3 (top-36) three times, along with a WR42 finish last season in Washington. No, he’s not a surefire starter for your roster every week. But he provides great depth for your team, and he could lead the Bills’ receiving room this season. Think about who is throwing the ball this year compared to others who threw him the ball during his time in Washington and Carolina.
Maybe Samuel isn’t the most glorifying receiver out there, but look at the others surrounding him in the Bills’ wide receiver room. Shakir had a decent season in 2023, but he ultimately finished as the WR61, as he hauled in 39 receptions for 611 yards and two touchdowns. Coleman comes in as a highly touted rookie, but he never reached 800 receiving yards in a season during his three-year collegiate career. MVS has never reached 700 receiving yards in his six-year pro career. Claypool only hauled in eight receptions last season, and Buffalo is the fourth team he’s played on in three years. With 152 receptions, 1,929 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns vacated from last season with the departures from Diggs and Davis, someone will need to step up in a big way this year. Samuel has a legitimate shot at becoming Allen’s WR1 this season and producing great numbers for your dynasty team.
Other Notables: Dalton Kincaid, Ray Davis
STOCK DOWN – DAWSON KNOX
| Year | Team | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Yards/Catch | TDs |
| 2019 | BUF | 15 | 50 | 28 | 388 | 13.9 | 2 |
| 2020 | BUF | 12 | 44 | 24 | 288 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 2021 | BUF | 15 | 71 | 49 | 587 | 12.0 | 9 |
| 2022 | BUF | 15 | 65 | 48 | 517 | 10.8 | 6 |
| 2023 | BUF | 12 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 8.5 | 2 |
In Knox’s first four seasons in the league, he hauled in a combined 149 receptions for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. Then, the team drafted Dalton Kincaid to leapfrog Knox as the team’s new TE1. Knox took a hit on his production in 2023, as he only hauled in 22 receptions for 186 yards and two touchdowns. But here’s the thing, Knox still has value to some in the dynasty football community. You can still trade him for something, and you should do this before he becomes an automatic drop candidate. The fact that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer on the team helped Knox’s value go up a little bit. Here’s why his long-term value will diminish by the week once the season starts.
As mentioned above in the Curtis Samuel section, the Bills brought in a decent amount of new pass-catchers to this team. All of Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, and Dalton Kincaid could outproduce Knox this season. You also have to keep in mind that James Cook is a great receiver out of the backfield for this team as well. He hauled in 44 receptions for 445 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Don’t be surprised if Knox finishes as the eighth-leading receiver for this squad in 2024. If that happens, he won’t have much value at all, and you will likely find yourself having a hard time getting any return if you try to trade him away.
At the same time, the fifth-year pro is going into his first contract extension season (expires in 2026), but he could turn into a cap casualty as early as next June. He has an average annual value of $9,833,333, and his guarantee is only $12,750,000. With Kincaid expected to take a step forward during his second season, it’s hard to imagine Knox having much of a role with this team moving forward. My advice to you is to sell him for what you can get right now before he starts the season slow and you can’t find a trade partner because it’s too late.
Other Notables: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Shorter
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