Dynasty Analysis
Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class. I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player).
Let’s go back to 2015. A small, rookie wide receiver out of Kansas State, standing only 5’10”, 182 pounds, who was extremely fast (4.40 40), earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. He showed game-breaking ability as a receiver and returner, racking up over 1,000 total return yards and two touchdowns. He had 51 receptions for 664 yards, six touchdowns and finished as the WR44. The next two seasons he finished as the WR65 and WR57 respectively. In his fourth year, he would have one of the most efficient seasons of any receiver and finish as the WR16. If you haven’t figured it out by now, I am talking about the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, Tyler Lockett.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation!This week’s episode: Same hosts, same great IDP content, new name!News and NotesThe Fantasy Football Fellas (@TheFFfellas) Seth (@sethfffellas) and Kyle (@kyleFFfellas)Uniform Draft
Part of your duty as a dynasty owner is identifying high asset players and moving off of them before their value drops to a point you’re unable to get anything for them. It can be a hard pill to swallow, saying good-bye to a high caliber player who is in the prime of their career. But to sustain your team and remain competitive for years (not to mention avoid the uncertainty of an unknown rebuild), you will have to cut ties and gain maximum value for players. These decisions can be hard, but for Dynasty Football Factory members, they just became a lot easier.
We enter as a young boy talks with his (dynasty fantasy football) friends. His friends are scolding him for only playing with toys that are “so last year”. The young boy says to his friends, “I love these toys, they are fun to bring out and play with every time. I bet I can beat your toys in battle with my win-now team”. The rest of his friends gasp in the way that sheltered kids do when they’re not sure if parents are around, and they want to be able to save face with them if they were listening to what their friend just uttered. The young boy replies, “What? Win-now is not a dirty word!”I find myself playing dynasty much like this young boy likes to play with his toys. I see other owners celebrating players who have yet to break out like it’s a certainty that they do or entering start-up drafts while having no intention to win year one. I’ve been there, done that. Sometimes it works out well, other times you end up with a garbage roster full of post-hype players. Over years of playing dynasty, I’ve heard people talk about a three-year window or even a five-year window. I have found the most productive rosters I construct utilize a two-year window.There are quite a few benefits to this theology. Here are some of my favorites:Productive veteran players provide what might be the biggest competitive advantage in dynasty leaguesOwners are petrified to push the button in drafts on players who they believe only have one or two years of productivity left. When these types of players find themselves on rebuilding teams, the acquisition cost can be of insane value. Let’s take an example:-Julio Jones represents a player that dynasty players and redraft players are very different on. Per June ADP on DFF, Jones has an ADP of 22 overall (WR9). On Fantasypros.com which aggregates many ADP sources for redraft, Julio has an ADP of 11 overall (WR4). A difference of nearly a full round in 12 team leagues. You can find players who have a bigger difference, but in my opinion, dynasty ADP should roughly mirror redraft ADP for at least the first couple rounds. My rationale for saying so is the point of fantasy is to win. If the redraft community says that he is worth a late first-round selection and there’s no good reason to say he won’t be able to roughly duplicate a likely top 12 WR season from 2019 again in 2020, this should be a player worth pulling the trigger on close to his redraft valuation.I could go into his current contract dispute shedding light on the fact that he may find his way to a new team in 2020, but he’s still under contract for 2020 and I can’t fathom a world where he is a cap casualty at this point. Now you can quibble with Julio’s value all you want, but there’s more than just him slipping in dynasty drafts compared to redraft.
I’m going to give you at least one buy low dynasty asset at each position, that I believe you are must own or you should stash away on your bench or taxi squads. These players may need a year or so to give you a significant return, but it will be worth the wait. Let’s jump right into it.
Up first is the defensive tackle position, and we head to Buffalo, to discuss 2nd-year guy, Harrison Phillips. If you have been following me, then you know I was high on him coming out of Stanford. As a rookie, he played in all sixteen games but had zero starts. Harrison was buried on the depth chart behind veterans, Kyle Williams and Star Lotulelei. He outperformed Lotulelei and with Williams now retired; he’s a prime candidate to step into a starting role.
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Handcuff. This simple noun is known worldwide from military equipment to adult erotic toys. It means something entirely different in the world of fantasy football. When I got into fantasy football, back in the mid-1990s, drafting a risky player with high draft capital meant you had to draft their backup as their “handcuff.” So, when that player got hurt, you could slide in their replacement without missing a beat. How the times have changed. What if in 2019 the term handcuff has changed? What if I told you that you don’t have to draft a high-risk player to stash handcuffs for depth on your bench? Here are five of my favorite handcuffs for the 2019 season that you don’t need to take a risk to reap the reward.
Ryquell Armstead (RB – JAX) The 5’11, 220-lb running back from Temple was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 5th round this season. The draft capital isn’t high enough to sound the horn, but it boils down to this question: Do you trust Leonard Fournette’s ankles? He has missed 11 games so far in his first two years in the league. This comes after missing six games in his final season at LSU. Alfred Blue is listed second in the depth chart, but when it comes to explosiveness, Armstead is faster and more athletic than Blue. With no T.J. Yeldon or Corry Grant in the mix, the backfield is not as cloudy as last year. Once Fournette goes down with his annual ligament injury, don’t be surprised when Armstead takes his opportunity and runs with it. Pun intended. Armstead’s current ADP is around the 18th round…………………
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation!
2019 OutlookThere’s a changing of the guard in Tennessee. Orakpo and Morgan have been the starting OLB duo since Orakpo joined the team in 2015. Morgan has been a starter since 2011. Orakpo has retired and Morgan is still a free agent. This season, it’ll be Landry and Wake to start. Landry could easily see 800 snaps and a solid jump in production. The question is how many snaps will Wake play. In Miami last season, Wake played 518 snaps over 14 games. If Wake maintains the relatively limited snaps, it opens an opportunity for one of the remaining guys on the depth chart. Correa is a former 2nd Round pick that didn’t work out in Baltimore. Traded to Tennessee for a 6th Rounder prior to last season, he built up a little hype in the preseason.
Hello loyal readers. We are excited to debut the “Factory Fantasy Mail” today with Dan Cook answering several of our member’s questions. Dan talks about the best scoring settings for leagues, how late should, or can, you wait on a quarterback in superflex leagues. He also answers how many NFL rosters can you start three linebackers from and how early should you select IDP players in startup drafts. So, sit back, relax and watch the answers to your questions. Don’t forget if you have questions you want to watch answered on the video mailbag, send them to us so we can answer them at:
In this article, we’re going to wrap up the camp battles to watch for in 2019. You can find the previous articles in this series by clicking on the following links: Part One Part Two If you haven’t checked those articles, you should take a look to see some of the other important competitions impacting your fantasy football drafts. Here come two more exciting battles.
James Washington vs. Donte Moncrief vs. Diontae Johnson (PIT – WR) In this camp battle, these three wide receivers are fighting for the number two spot in the Steelers’ offense behind star receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Considering that last season Antonio Brown had 104 receptions for 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns, there is a lot of room for someone new to step up and potentially reach WR2 status after Brown’s trade to the Raiders. Let’s examine each of the players in turn, starting with Washington. Washington was drafted by the Steelers with the 60th overall pick in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft. In his final college season, he won the Biletnikoff Award for best college wide receiver and was extremely hyped as a member of the stacked wide receiver class of 2018. However, Washington disappointed as a rookie, only managing 16 catches for 217 yards and just one touchdown. After Brown was traded to Oakland, Washington was expected to step up into the WR2 role. However, at this moment, he is losing the competition to the next player up, Donte Moncrief………………………………………………………….
With Training Camp around the corner, it’s a good time to look at some undecided depth charts to see if there are a few IDP available who could produce this season and beyond.
Los Angeles ILB 2018 Stats
Additions: Clay Matthews – Signed 2-years, $5.5 million
Subtractions: Mark Barron – Released, signed with Pittsburgh; Ramik Wilson – Signed with Jacksonville
2019 Outlook: Last year, at this time, we were wondering who would start next to Barron at ILB for the Rams. Cory Littleton ended up breaking out in a huge way with 125 total tackles. This year, he is the unquestioned starter at ILB while we’re questioning who’s going to be standing next to him come Week 1.Barron missed the first four games of last season. In those games, Wilson primarily covered ILB but never topped 70% of snaps. Even when Barron got back on the field, he never topped 87% of snaps, as the Rams decided to remove him on passing downs for someone with a little more cover prowess. That’s where Christian entered the picture. A safety by trade, Christian would come in and play cover LB to the tune of almost 350 snaps over the course of the season. So who plays the majority of snaps next to Littleton this season? It’ll likely be a combination……………………………………………………………………….
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation! This week’s episode: Same hosts, same great IDP content, new name! …
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With Training Camp around the corner, it’s a good time to look at some undecided depth charts to see if there are a few IDP available who could produce this season and beyond. Additions Darnell Savage Jr. – 1st Round pick Adrian Amos – Signed 4-year, $37 million Subtractions Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – Traded to …
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Want to talk about a division that each team has at least one top 10 player for their position? That is the NFC South, which contains players like Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans. Even though they are top 10 in their position, are they worth their current value in fantasy? Let’s …
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Welcome to the Dynasty Outlook series where I discuss a buy low, sell high and deep sleeper for each NFL team. Today we will start off with the NFC North. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant players in this division. Let’s take a deeper dive into the values on these fantasy players![exceltable id=’47826′]Chicago BearsBuy Low: Mitch TrubiskyIn the month of June, Trubisky had an ADP of 148.7 and is the 18th quarterback taken off the board, while he finished last year as QB14. He threw for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while rushing for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns in 14 games. He was in his first year under Head Coach, Matt Nagy, and I look to see him have a breakout third season. The current QB14 taken in startup drafts is Jameis Winston with an ADP of 133.7, which is about a round before Trubisky. Of the top 20 quarterbacks in 2018, only two played in 13 games (Baker, QB17 and Mitch, QB14), one played in 14 games (Cam, QB10) and the other 17 played in all 15 fantasy football season games. If Mitch doesn’t miss those two games and keeps his 19.4 PPG, he would have finished inside the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks last season.
The 2019 Factory Fantasy Football Guide. Over 170 pages of …
Sometimes in dynasty fantasy football, it can be hard to know if your roster is worthy of a championship run or not. There are stacked teams, but this is a high variance game that we so love, so even the stacked teams find ways not to win sometimes. Today I’ll show you how to quantifiably show you are in the ballpark of contention for either a playoff spot or a championship run.
How do we do that, Mike? Well, if you’ve read my stuff before, you know I love using VBD (Value Based Drafting) for a variety of subjects. If you haven’t read some of it before, I’ve previously shown you how to game your league format using the concept, as well as quantifying how much tight-end-premium scoring really matters. A lot can be learned from comparing players to “replacement level”. That’s the very basic definition of VBD if you’re unfamiliar with the concept.
Alright already, let’s get into it then! First off, VBD is built off projections. So you will have to find your favorite set of, hopefully fairly granular projections, and get them into a player database. Once you have this, you can apply your league’s scoring format to the season-long projections for every player to determine just how many points each player projects to score, specifically for your league. For this article, I’m using my good buddy @FF_TomB ‘s season-long projections. It’s honestly better than anything I could have gotten put together this year, not having done so before. Plus he let me in to see how the “sausage is made” so to speak and I wholeheartedly approve of his methodology. I also held a contest on Twitter to decide whose league to break down. My fellow “815” guy @JasonTran guessed my favorite Chicago Bear of all time correctly.
For my next article, I’ll be working to bolster a team in its championship window with some redraft concepts! I’d like to use somebody else’s roster and league to write about. The winner of this contest will be the 1st to successfully name my favorite Bear player ever. #DFFArmy pic.twitter.com/njCR9L1oNS
— Mike2FFB (@DFF_Mike2) July 9, 2019
If you don’t know who Peanut Tillman is, look him up. He’s a genuinely cool person outside of the sport too. But…that’s not why you clicked the link to this article!
Scoring / Starting Requirements
Here are the scoring and starting requirements for Jason’s league:
As you can see here, it’s a relatively normal starting lineup for an offense only Superflex league. Flex heavy lineups allow for some cool roster construction techniques compared to more rigid starting lineup settings. A few things to note about their scoring that’s different from many leagues.
Welcome to the IDP Nation Podcast, the Factory Sports Network’s IDP-centric show. We are your hosts Dan Cook and Darrell Winstead. Are you ready for some tenacious IDP discussion? We’ve got you covered from your LB1 to your taxi squad. This is IDP Nation! This week’s episode: Same hosts, same great IDP content, new name! …
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