Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.
Dynasty values used for this article are from Keep Trade Cut which is a Dynasty community-driven value tool.
Statistics used are from NFL PRO premium next-gen stats.
Top 10 Running Backs by EPA per attempt
| Player | Rush EPA/Att |
| Chase Brown | +.25 |
| Bucky Irving | +.19 |
| Derrick Henry | +.18 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +.14 |
| Braelon Allen | +.12 |
| Tyler Allgeier | +.10 |
| Kenneth Walker | +.09 |
| Jerome Ford | +.08 |
| Saquon Barkley | +.07 |
| Antonio Gibson | +.07 |
Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the net value a ball carrier adds on run plays by translating yards gained into points scored.
Look for the players highlighted in the chart above to continue to earn more carries.
Some very interesting notes.
Tyler Allgeier ranks 9th in rush EPA per attempt while Bijan Robinson ranks 40th.
Braelon Allen ranks 8th in rush EPA per attempt while Breece Hall ranks 43rd.
The running backs I am most interested in from the list above are below:
Recommendation:
Chase Brown is priced as the RB36 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Bucky Irving has been a strong buy for 4 straight weeks and his value has gone up steadily. He is priced as the RB20 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Derrick Henry is priced as the RB17 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating. Henry is a perfect target for a contending team.
Bottom 10 running backs by EPA
| QB | EPA |
| Zamir White | -.65 |
| Gus Edwards | -.44 |
| D’Andre Swift | -.40 |
| Cam Akers | -.40 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | -.37 |
| Javonte Williams | -.35 |
| Trey Benson | -.30 |
| Ray Davis | -.29 |
| Zach Charbonnet | -.28 |
| Breece Hall | -.27 |
Recommendation:
Zamir White is priced as the RB54 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Javonte Williams is priced as the RB41 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
D’andre Swift has been mostly awful this season but just had a great game. That opened a sell window for him in my opinion. He is priced as the RB42 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Zach Charbonnet is priced as the RB26 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Routes | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Johnson | 13 | 7 | 83 | 1 | 32.5% | 36 | 2.3 |
| Legette | 10 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 25.0% | 36 | 1.8 |
| Mingo | 5 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12.5% | 36 | .7 |
This situation is of significance due to Adam Thielen being assigned to IR. This opened the door wide open for rookie Xavier Legette who figured prominently in the Panthers air attack with 10 targets.
Recommendation:
Diontae Johnson is priced as the WR42 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Xavier Legette is priced as the WR41 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Jonathan is priced as the WR86 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Chicago Bears Running Backs
Week 4
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 16 | 93 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 72 |
| Johnson | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 13 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| Johnson | 8 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| Herbert | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 14 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| Herbert | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 10 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Coming into week 4 the Bears coaching staff indicated they would give “an extended look”
to Roschon Johnson. Khalil Herbert and D’Andre Swift had been inefficient rushing on the year.
Turns out it was more of a kick in the butt to motivate D’Andre Swift. Johnson had 8 touches vs 13 in week 3.
The situation here is gross all around. Swift is likely to continue to be too inconsistent to start and the others aren’t getting the touches to be meaningful.
Recommendation:
D’andre Swift is priced as the RB42 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Roschon Johnson is priced as the RB41 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Khalil Herbert is priced as the RB67 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs
Week 4
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Moss | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| Brown | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Moss | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
| Brown | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Moss | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Brown | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Per Next Gen Stats, Chase Brown now leads all running backs in rush EPA per attempt. He has clearly been the most explosive running back in the Bengals backfield. His touches saw a big uptick in week 4. In the last 3 weeks, he went from 4 to 10 to 18 touches.
Recommendation:
Chase Brown is priced as the RB36 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Kansas City Chief Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Routes | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Rice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Worthy | 4 | 3 | 73 | 1 | 13.8% | 27 | 2.7 |
| Kelce | 9 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 31.0% | 31 | 2.9 |
| Watson | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 10.3% | 23 | 1.2 |
This particular situation is important to follow due to the injury to Rashee Rice which appears likely to be a torn ACL which will sideline him for the year.
The primary benefactor of the injury was clearly Travis Kelce who came away with a 31% target share reviving his season . Justin Watson has always been a solid depth receiver who can have a big game here and there. He makes for a good target in bestball leagues.
Recommendation:
Travis Kelce is priced as the TE10 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Justin Watson is priced as the WR128 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Xavier Worthy is priced as the WR26 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Denver Broncos Running Backs
Week 4
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Williams | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Tyler Badie | 9 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Williams | 5 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 29 |
Sean Payton is trying to find a spark to get his running game going. Clearly, he is not satisfied with the status quo of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. His plan was to give more touches to Tyler Badie who exited early with a back injury. Mclaughlin and Williams performed better this game than prior, but Williams still ranks 6th worst in the NFL in rush EPA per attempt.
The door seems wide open for Audric Estime ranked 3rd in this class in college career yards after contact. He also ranked 6th in the class in missed tackles forced per attempt. Williams has been in this series as a sell for multiple weeks and his value has plummeted over that time. This may be your last chance to sell at decent value.
Recommendation:
Audric Estime is priced as the RB57 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Tyler Badie is priced as the RB85 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Jaleel McLaughlin is priced as the RB49 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Javonte Williams is priced as the RB41 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Kansas City Chief Running Backs
Week 4
| Rushes | Rush Yards | YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steele | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunt | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| Perine | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Steele | 17 | 72 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Perine | 6 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| I. Pacheco | 19 | 90 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| C.Steele | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S. Perine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Steele fumbled on his second attempt and that was all she wrote. Hunt took over after that and looked quite good.
Clyde Edwards Helaire will also figure into the mix when he returns from injury.
Recommendation:
Isaiah Pacheco is priced as the RB12 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Carson Steele is priced as the RB55 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Samaje Perine is priced as the RB73 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Kareem Hunt is priced as the RB74 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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