Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.
Dynasty values used for this article are from Keep Trade Cut which is a Dynasty community-driven value tool.
Statistics used are from NFL PRO premium next-gen stats.
Top 10 Quarterbacks by EPA
| QB | EPA |
| Allen | 24.0 |
| Purdy | 19.5 |
| Carr | 18.4 |
| Murray | 15.8 |
| Daniels | 13.9 |
| Rodgers | 10.8 |
| Hurts | 9.1 |
| Darnold | 5.6 |
| Mahomes | 5.5 |
| Jackson | 3.9 |
This list is for a large part a who’s who of superstar QBs so there aren’t many buy-low opportunities. However, one name sticks out to me. Sam Darnold.
His Dynasty managers did not invest a lot in acquiring him. Plus, there is a prevailing assumption that the Vikings will start JJ McCarthy next year. He is the only QB on this list who is under the age of 30 and is not priced as a top 15 QB. He is currently priced as the QB 23. I believe the Vikings will resign him if he continues to perform at this level. Even if they do not he is playing himself into a starting role somewhere.
Sam Darnold is priced as the QB23 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Bottom 10 Quarterbacks by EPA
| QB | EPA |
| Levis | -51.0 |
| Williams | -46.4 |
| Watson | -42.3 |
| Young | -40.2 |
| Nix | -33.0 |
| Prescott | -19.0 |
| Minshew | -17.8 |
| Richardson | -15.6 |
| Brissett | -15.2 |
| Burrow | -13.8 |
Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric that measures a quarterback’s performance by calculating the difference in expected points before and after each play. EPA is a reliable way to assess a quarterback’s contribution to the offense, (EPA/Play).
Will Levis is on ice thinner than a 90’s supermodel. I am selling now while he is still the starter to get whatever value I can out of him. He was a mediocre prospect continuously making horrible decisions and costing his team points. Mason Rudolph should be rostered in all Dynasty SF leagues.
The Browns are likely committed to Deshaun Watson given his albatross of a contract. If he continues to perform this poorly, however, I would stash Jameis Winston.
We expect rookies to struggle early so I am not too concerned about Williams and Nix yet. Nix actually looked solid this past week.
Anthony Richardson is definitely a situation to monitor. He is a potential fantasy superstar but if he doesn’t have a job as a starter in the NFL he gets you no value.
Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell were in a tight battle all camp for the starting job and Minshew has not impressed with the 7th lowest EPA.
Will Levis is priced as the QB28 on KTC? At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Mason Rudolph is priced as the QB63 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Anthony Richardson is priced as the QB10 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Gardner Minshew is priced as the QB32 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Aidan O’Connell is priced as the QB43 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Here are some team situations that need to be monitored based on usage to identify who may emerge from the group:
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Routes | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Sutton | 11 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 45.0% | 25 | 2.7 |
| Humphrey | 8 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 30.8% | 26 | 1.4 |
| Franklin | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 41.7% | 12 | .9 |
| Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 9.5% | 21 | 1.7 |
I am pointing this situation out because of the utilization of Troy Franklin. This was the first game he worked his way into the wide receiver rotation. Franklin and Nix had an incredible rapport at Oregon.
He was targeted on 41.7% of his routes run. If he is on the field there is a good chance his college buddy is going to target him.
Wide Receivers drafted on day 3 of the NFL Draft (Rd 4-7) have a terrible hit rate.
However, of the 38 Day 3 WRs drafted the last 3 years, 5 from that group and 1 from 2024 met this criteria:
Yards per route run (Best season) >2.5
College Career Fantasy Points Per Game >12.5
Breakout age <21
Those five are:
and the one from the 2024 class: Troy Franklin.
That is basically every successful round 4-7 wide receiver plus Troy Franklin. Buy low
Troy Franklin is priced as the WR76 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers
Week 3
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Robinson | 4 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 1.2 |
| Atwell | 5 | 4 | 93 | 0 | 20.0% | 20.8% | 3.9 |
| Whittington | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12.0% | 27.3% | 2.5 |
| Johnson | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 16.0% | 28.6% | 1.4 |
Week 2
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Robinson | 4 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 14.8% | 14.3% | 1.8 |
| Atwell | 4 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 14.8% | 40.0% | 4.8 |
| Kupp | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 22.2% | 31.6% | 1.9 |
| Johnson | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11.1% | 12.0% | .8 |
We suggested Tutu Atwell as a strong buy in this column last week at his WR116 price and he went on to lead the Rams in receiving this week. He had nearly 3 times the receiving yards of the next closest Rams WR.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both out for at least another 2 to 3 weeks. Kupp was not placed on the injured reserve which indicates he will return sooner than Puka. He may not be 100% when he does.
Recommendation:
Tutu Atwell is priced as the WR95 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Demarcus Robinson is priced as the WR 87 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Cooper Kupp is priced as the WR38 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Tyler Johnson is priced as the WR89 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Jordan Whittington is priced as the WR71 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Tampa Bay Buccaneer Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Irving | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| White | 10 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Irving | 9 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| White | 15 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 75 |
I have been urging readers to buy Bucky Irving since before the season and every week so far. He still carries a buy rating but his value has gone way up and is far harder to acquire now.
The rush attempt split was similar to week 1 here. Once again, however, Irving was more efficient than Rachaad White.
Rachaad White was the most inefficient starting running back last season, that honor belonged to Rachaad White.
Per Fantasy Points data, last season, among the 23 running backs that carried the ball at least 200 times, Rachaad White ranked dead last in yards after contact per carry (2.24), missed tackles forced per carry (0.14), *and* rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.41).
Enter fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving, a decisive downfield runner. Irving ranked top five in this rookie class in PFF Rush Grade (90.8), Target share (11.7%), missed tackles forced per attempt (.36), and career yards after contact per attempt (3.81).
Recommendation:
Bucky Irving is priced at RB34 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Rachaad White is priced at RB18 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.
Denver Broncos Running Backs
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Tyler Badie | 9 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Williams | 5 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 29 |
Sean Payton is trying to find a spark to get his running game going. Clearly, he is not satisfied with the status quo of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. After being highly efficient last year McLaughlin has not been able to get going at all in 2024.
Tyler Badie is priced as the RB119 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating. He is only rostered in 2% of Sleeper ratings.
Jaleel McLaughlin is priced as the RB48 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Javonte Williams is priced as the RB33 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Kansas City Chief Running Backs
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Steele | 17 | 72 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Perine | 6 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| I. Pacheco | 19 | 90 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| C.Steele | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S. Perine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
We recommended Steele as a buy in this column last week and he indeed led the Chiefs rushing attack in Pacheco’s absence. He performed admirably while not lighting the world on fire.
Keep an eye on if the Chiefs elevate Kareem Hunt from the practice squad. While not the runner he once was he offers a dynamic aspect Steel does not.
Recommendation:
Isaiah Pacheco is priced as the RB13 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Carson Steele is priced as the RB47 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Samaje Perine is priced as the RB68 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Kareem Hunt is priced as the RB82 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Cleveland Brown Running Backs
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Ford | 10 | 37 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 33 |
| Foreman | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Ford | 7 | 64 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Foreman | 14 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Ford | 12 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 25 |
| Foreman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
After not playing in week 1, Jerome Ford played second fiddle to D’Onta Foreman in week 2. Foreman had twice as many carries as Ford in week 2. Week 3 flipped back towards Jerome Ford in terms of usage, but he didn’t do anything with his increased touches.
For the second week in a row, I am suggesting this as an exit point for Jerome Ford in Dynasty.
Ultimately, neither Ford nor Foreman have done anything to separate themselves. Now is the time to buy Nick Chubb. The closer he gets to returning the more expensive he becomes.
Recommendation:
Jerome Ford is priced as the RB35 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
D’ Onta Foreman is priced as the RB75 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Nick Chubb is priced as the RB40 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Chicago Bears Running Backs
Week 3
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 13 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| Johnson | 8 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| Herbert | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00 |
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 14 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| Herbert | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Swift | 10 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Herbert | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
This backfield is gross for fantasy. After logging two healthy scratches in the first two games of the season, Roschon Johnson saw his first game action and saw solid usage. D’andre Swift has been inefficient so far this season, so the Bears were clearly looking for a spark.
Recommendation:
D’andre Swift is priced as the RB37 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Roschon Johnson is priced as the RB66 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Khalil Herbert is priced as the RB65 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
New York Giants Running Backs
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Singletary | 16 | 65 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| Tracey | 5 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
This situation was noteworthy for the usage of Singletary’s backup Tyrone Tracey. This was his first healthy game of the season and he was the clear backup to Singletary. Tracey was efficient with his touches and was utilized in the passing game.
Tyrone Tracey is an intriguing prospect. Tyrone Tracy has some eye-popping advanced metrics.
38.5% MTF/A
13.5% explosive run
4.18 YAC
Each top 2 in this RB class. Before he gets too expensive, I would try to acquire him.
Recommendation:
Devin Singletary is priced as the RB39 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Tyrone Tracey is priced as the RB59 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Baltimore Tight Ends
Week 3
| Targets | Rec | Rec Yrds | Routes | Targets per route | Yards per route | Target
Share |
|
| Likely | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11.0% | .4 | 6.7% |
| Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25.0% | 0 | 6.7% |
Week 2
| Targets | Rec | Rec Yrds | Routes | Targets per route | Yards per route | Target
Share |
|
| Likely | 3 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 20.8% | 1.5 | 8.8% |
| Andrews | 5 | 4 | 51 | 24 | 17.6% | 2.1 | 14.7% |
Week 1
| Targets | Rec | Rec Yrds | Routes | Targets per route | Yards per route | Target
Share |
|
| Likely | 12 | 9 | 111 | 24 | 50% | 4.6 | 29.2% |
| Andrews | 2 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 4.9% |
We have been urging you to sell Isaiah Likely while his value was high. Hopefully, you took advantage of that as his value has dropped precipitously in two weeks. The Raven’s offense is predictably unpredictable. I am staying away right now. Unfortunately, most Dynasty managers feel the same so it is unlikely you can get much in return in trade.
Isaiah Likely exploded for 9 receptions, 111 yards, and a touchdown in week one. Week two Likely was only able to muster a meager 8.8% target share. Week 3 that dropped again to 6.7%
More concerning was Mark Andrews only ran 4 routes in week 3. The Ravens employed a run-heavy attack vs. the suspect Cowboys run defense which resulted in only 15 pass attempts.
Recommendation:
Isaiah Likely is priced at TE7 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.
Mark Andrews is priced at TE9 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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