My Target This Week: Allen Robinson
One player I’ll be desperately trying to get this offseason is Allen Robinson. I’ve noticed his value is, rightly, on the rise. I have no idea how this scenario with the Jaguars will shake out; we can only speculate. The fact is that Allen Robinson is a restricted free agent. He’s 24 and coming off another injury-riddled season. What will his offseason look like and how should we handle it as dynasty owners?
First of all, I think things would have to go very south for Allen Robinson’s value to dip any lower than it currently is. That’s not to say Robinson is cheap, but I think he’s going to be easier to pry from the grips of the Allen Robinson owner in your league. Allen Robinson is still only 24, so he’s younger than Michael Thomas and just a few months older than Kenny Golladay. Any NFL or dynasty team should be excited to make a move for Allen Robinson.
Alright, let me cut to the chase. I believe his value will increase as dynasty owners try to speculate where he may or may not play this year. The hope is that he ends up somewhere with a new QB. The Jaguars are already over the cap, and I don’t see them being the team to give our boy A-Rob the best long-term offer. I believe Robinson is very ready to explore the market but I don’t, however, think he gets much of a chance. After the Jags give their low-ball long-term deals and other teams give their low-ball prove-it deals, Allen Robinson will likely get the franchise tag. That would be worth $17,000,000 and would be a great “prove-it” deal.
Well, now what?
Now is your next opportunity to buy low. Everyone’s been hoping to see Robinson in a new situation and why wouldn’t they? Pump the brakes for a minute, though. Allen Robinson has barely played with Blake Bortles or Fournette. Maybe this isn’t the worst scenario after all. In fact, for 2018 it could be the best-case scenario. Even for the best wide receivers, it can be tough to switch teams and systems. Coming off an injury with a new training staff is even tougher.
I believe we will see Allen Robinson’s value rise slowly until it plateaus in free agency and a small dip in value if and when he’s franchise tagged. The best time to get him is now or when he signs that tag, and not the time in between. If he’s playing well with Bortles you can try and sell high should you want out.
This past season I made a move to get Robinson from a playoff-contending Ezekiel Elliott owner. It was week 13 with the bye week locked up and Doug Baldwin on my bench. I offered my Doug Baldwin and Alfred Morris for his Allen Robinson, and after a little dialogue, we came to terms. In my opinion, I killed this trade. Now just a little bit more than a month later and I think there’s no way I get this deal done. At the same time, with the strength his team already had and what he needed it helped him. My point is; you have to be ready to take advantage of every situation your market offers.
I also recently sold Allen Robinson in a thirty-two team dynasty league. Still not sure how I feel about this one but in a 32-team league depth is essential. In return for Allen Robinson, I received Kenny Golladay, OJ Howard and the 01.09. Not sure if I played the market right on this one but I received needed depth.
The Throw-In Player
Remember a couple of weeks ago when I said If we ask for Jeremy Hill we have to be honest about him? Well, what if we hardly ask for him?
See, I don’t want to remind the Hill owner that he won’t be 26 until October. I don’t want to tell them that I think he could be a good RB2 or RB3 and at least a nice flex if you need it. I don’t want to remind them that he’s a free agent and not likely to be a part of the mess in Cincinnati. I want that owner to keep that bad taste in his mouth from last year as long as he can.
“Throw in Jeremy Hill, and we’ve got a deal” it’s as simple as that. The owner is likely wondering why you want Hill in the first place and I’ve gone out of my way looking for “throw in players” who I can target without raising suspicion. In one potential trade, another owner and I were talking about Amari Cooper the entire time and I haven’t even revealed my target yet.
Never be afraid to get trade talks going, sometimes they end better than you could have imagined. The negotiation process can be fun, and at the very least you get some football talk.