When people think of Christian Watson, the first thought that comes to mind for Dynasty managers who have owned him is the late-season 2022 league winner. But since then, the now 25-year-old former second-round pick (34th overall) from North Dakota State has battled many injuries. He began his rookie season slowly with Aaron Rodgers, but from Week 10 onward, he averaged 65.4 yards per game and 14.90 fantasy points per game, with finishes as high as WR2 on the week as he took the league by storm. However, with expectations high this past season, he struggled mightily with injuries that limited his production. He only finished with more than ten fantasy points three times.
Before the start of this past season, Watson ranked in the Dynasty WR20 range. Since then, his value has plummeted due to an injury-riddled sophomore season and the emergence of the other Packer wide receivers, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. So, with the 2024 season nearing, as training camps are underway and the preseason is a matter of weeks away, should you be buying, selling, or holding Watson? Let’s dive in.
* Within this article, the statistics were pulled from Sports Reference, KeepTradeCut (KTC), and Sleeper.
2023 Season Review
Throughout this past training camp, Watson looked healthy, but he ended up missing the first three weeks of the season with a hamstring injury and missed the last five games with the same injury. The Packers had a bye in Week 6, but in the games he was available (Weeks 4-13), he struggled to make an impact in most of them. He only had one game with more than 37 yards in his first seven weeks and had no weekly finish higher than WR24.
Then, in his next two games, he gave us hope and proved to us why he was being drafted so high after his strong rookie season. He had a combined twelve catches on sixteen targets for 165 yards and scored three touchdowns. He finished Week 12 as WR10 with 17.90 fantasy points (Full-PPR) and Week 13 as WR8 with 24.10 fantasy points (Full-PPR). But disaster struck once again, and he missed the rest of the season with yet another hamstring injury.
In that two-game stretch, he looked like the best player on the field against the NFC runner-up Detroit Lions and eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. This past season was supposed to be Watson’s breakout year, but instead, it was an injury-riddled season that benefited the Packer’s other young wide receivers.
Christian Watson’s Dynasty Value
Coming into this season, Watson’s value around the Dynasty community is down compared to last year but could take off once again if he proves he’s healthy because of the flashes he’s shown. According to KeepTradeCut (KTC), he is currently being valued at WR 41 and the 102nd overall player. He’s placed behind Rashee Rice, and with rookie fever currently high, he’s also behind Keon Coleman and Ricky Pearsall. But based on how big a disappointment his 2023 season was, this is a somewhat fair evaluation, as he should be behind many other wide receivers. However, seeing eight rookie wide receivers ahead of him and Rashee Rice, who potentially could miss a large chunk of the year with legal issues, is still a curious placement. Based on this, Watson should have plenty of motivation to improve his stock and placement within the Packers organization.
Outlook & Advice
This offseason Watson has been looking into the root cause of his hamstring injuries and working hard to try to resolve it going forward. He underwent a full body scan at the University of Wisconsin-Madison with the hope of preventing future issues. Watson felt that one of the biggest things he learned was the importance of body symmetry between the strength of his two legs and how that can translate to injury. Watson said that he had a little less strength in his right leg compared to his left, which can put more strain on the left side. While only time will tell whether Watson and the Packers have found the long-term answers for his soft-tissue issues Packers head coach Matt LaFleur acknowledged that Watson looks to be in the best shape he’s seen him.
When Watson is on the field he operates as the Packers’ true WR1. This past season, in Weeks 5-13, when he was playing, he led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), end zone targets (14), and first-read share (22.3%). If he can overcome his soft tissue injuries and finally enjoy a healthy season, he can begin to fulfill the potential we have seen in spurts over the last two seasons. Watson makes the Packers’ offense more dynamic with his big play ability and end zone targets, as he will easily rack up the most fantasy points amongst all the Packers wide receivers if he stays healthy.
Your decision to keep or trade Watson depends on whether you trust him to stay healthy this season and in the future. If he does stay healthy, he can break out and become one of the NFL’s premier wide receivers and Dynasty Fantasy Football studs. Even with the Packers having a full wide receiver room, I plan on buying shares of Watson if I don’t currently roster him and if I can acquire him for something reasonable. This is because he’s still only 25 years old, his stock is down at the moment, and he has superstar potential. For teams that I currently roster Watson, I will also be holding onto him. On KeepTradeCut, he’s being valued as an early 2024 second-round pick for leagues that haven’t had their rookie drafts yet or around similar values as players such as Rhamondre Stevenson and Ricky Pearsall. I would personally be looking to trade a player in this range for Watson or acquire him as a second piece in a larger deal.
Conclusion
Whether I’m a contending or rebuilding manager, Watson is someone I would be looking to acquire due to his lower cost and potential superstar upside. He’s the clear number-one wide receiver when healthy and a huge red-zone threat. Watson has an up-and-coming young star quarterback in Jordan Love and a top offensive-minded head coach, which are all factors that make him an attractive player. I’d look to acquire Watson on both contending and rebuilding teams, as he’s a young player in the prime of his career. Watson is one of the best buy-low players in Dynasty Fantasy Football right now due to his ceiling; he just needs to stay healthy. Buy him before his value takes off because if he’s figured out the solution this offseason to his hamstring injuries, then the window to buy him will be closing. Watson can become one foundation of your championship-caliber roster.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you gained some valuable information. If you have any questions or you’d like additional insight and analysis, please follow me on Twitter/X at @MonicasHubby. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
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