The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot-button issues that face Dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/sit, Non-PPR (standard), PPR, and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes!
You would say “no way,” if you were told you would own a share of ____ two months ago?
Joshua Johnson – @DFF_Cog – Ronald Jones is my answer. The “why” is simply because of his opportunity in Tampa and my draft position. I took him 1.01 in a somewhat Devy depleted draft over Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny. Go ahead call me crazy, but I already had shares of Michel and It’s fun to diversify. Also, I have more questions about the Seattle offense than the Tampa scheme, so ROJO was my pick. Then, not even 24 hours later, I picked ROJO 1.06 in a quality over quantity league. Prior to the NFL draft, I was letting the masses/naysayers sway my opinion on ROJO. Finally, the week before the draft I was looking at all my player notes. I realized besides a few highlights, I had not actually watched ROJO. You see I am a bit of an IDP dork, so some offensive players slip through cracks while I am debating players like Trayvon Henderson versus Siran Neal. Anyway, as I dove into ROJO more, I really flipped the switch to liking him. So, when Tampa became his landing spot (with just Peyton Barber as possible TD vulture) my bubble fully burst, and I was covered in ROJO love!
Ryan Santos – @FFLINX – I would say that there are two veterans I thought I would not own a share of. I thought Adam Thielen was a little overrated last season, but once Kirk Cousins arrived, I changed my mind. Emmanuel Sanders is another vet who can help you win this season. Case Keenum was very solid throwing to Stefon Diggs and Thielen last season and I believe Sanders will be his go-to receiver this year.
John DiBari – @dibari22 – Laquon Treadwell. He’s basically free, so the cost is attractive. I was not a huge fan of him coming out of college, but I believe in the 3rd year wide receiver breakout. At his current price, I’m willing to take a flier on a guy who was a top-5 rookie pick just a few years ago.
Shaun Crandall – @WhiskeyD0G: Marlon Mack. The Colts chose not to re-sign Frank Gore or participate in the free agent running back market. They didn’t even select a running back with one of their 5-picks in the top 64!!! That speaks volumes. Mack will run behind newly drafted guards in Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, so the former USF back will have the opportunity, based on depth chart and surrounding talent, to reach RB2 value this year.
Matt Walker @DFF_Walk – Jarvis Landry? Jamaal Williams? Because the answer is still the same on both: I don’t own any shares!
Players I have come around on a bit in 2018 are John Ross and Mike Williams (I had ZERO SHARES). Each has seen their values decrease significantly enough in one short year that I have been able to buy them both in different leagues for 2018 2nd-rounders and some throw-in players. Neither team added competition in the draft and both are positioned to have impact sophomore seasons. Corey Davis didn’t do sh!t his rookie year either, but owners aren’t throwing him in the trash.
Kyle Francis @FranchiseKF If you’ll allow me to push the clock back more than two months then I’ll go with Ronald Jones. I’ve been up and down on him throughout his college career in terms of what type of pro I thought he could be. I was going to take whatever back Tampa selected, so, here I am with RoJo on a roster and feeling good about it.
Scott Osterloh @FF_EvilEmpire Two months ago I didn’t have any interest in Dante Pettis coming out of Washington. He was projected to be a mid-to-late round pick in the NFL draft. I thought he’d be 4th or 5th on a depth chart, with no real chance to contribute early. Then draft day came, and the San Francisco 49ers used major draft equity (2nd round pick) on Pettis. Now, Pettis is in a spot where he may see a ton of targets, he has an up-and-coming QB, and could be a major cog in a potentially top-10 offense. I’ve been acquiring shares of Pettis ever since.
What players are you trending? In other words, which player(s) did you draft multiple copies of in your rookie or Devy drafts?
Joshua Johnson – @DFF_Cog – So far, I have 3 copies each of Tre’Quan Smith, Ian Thomas, and Jordan Whitehead.
Smith is very intriguing to me. He is big, and he can run hard. With Drew Brees as his QB for the near future I feel his stock will only rise. Thomas is the perfect/cheap depth piece at tight end. The highest pick I spent on him was 3.02 and that was in 2TE/Premium league. Otherwise, I was able to steal him at 3.11 and 4.02. He is backing up guys like Austin Hooper, Trey Burton, Delanie Walker, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Gerald Everett, and Evan Engram on my various squads.
Whitehead still gets no respect, as I have grabbed him in the 7th in all three places. So, no big loss if he is a flop. I think the world of this kid. He is fast, agile, and he can tackle effectively and efficiently. #NuffSaid
Ryan Santos – @FFLINX – Most of my Dynasty leagues are with the FFPC which allows 1.5 point per reception for tight end. Mike Gesicki is someone I tried to target in every draft from the 1.10-2.5. He lands on a Dolphins team void of big play receivers and no competition at tight end. According to Player Profiler, he is above 95% in every workout metric.
John DiBari – @dibari22 – I’ve been acquiring a sickening amount of Jaylen Samuels. He was intentionally one of my top targets in this draft class and I’m willing to overpay everywhere to get him. I think he’s the future of the NFL. The ACC invented a position for him, All-Purpose Back, just to give him an award. The NFL is starting to look for players with multi-positional abilities to create mismatches for opposing defenses. Samuels can play running back, fullback, tight end, and slot receiver. Players like Christian McCaffrey started the trend. I think Samuels blows it out if the water and he’s the start of something new in the NFL.
Shaun Crandall – @WhiskeyD0G – I’ve targeted Christian Kirk in each rookie draft. Regardless of landing spot, I think Kirk provides a high enough floor based on his route running ability. Also, his hands made him worth a late-first to early-second in each draft I participated in. Playing for his hometown team, and alongside Larry Fitzgerald, will give him the opportunity to see first-hand how the slot position is to be played in Arizona. Kirk’s impact may be dampened a bit in year one (or two) depending on how much longer Fitzgerald plays, but this is Dynasty, and it is all about the longer-term impact over just year-one.
Matt Walker @DFF_Walk – Two rookie drafts down and two to go, so, I don’t have multiple copies of any player at present. The following names represent a list of non-obvious players that I am extremely high on and will likely own multiple copies of at the end of my rookie drafts:
OFF – Lamar Jackson (my QB2), Antonio Callaway, Jaylen Samuels, Jordan Wilkins, Ian Thomas
DEF – Darius Leonard, Micah Kiser, Rasheem Green, Lorenzo Carter
Kyle Francis @FranchiseKF Most of my leagues are college fantasy, not NFL. Additionally, I don’t think I play in nearly as many leagues as most of my peers do, so, I’ll elect to pooch punt here from the 35-yard-line. I’ll just give a couple Devy buy lows here for anyone that is still drafting. Boise State JR RB Alexander Mattison, Toledo SR WR Cody Thompson, and FSU rFR WR Tamorrion Terry. Okay, I changed my mind. Cowboys WR Cedrick Wilson is basically free, I have him in multiple spots and would recommend grabbing him where you can.
Scott Osterloh @FF_EvilEmpire
I’ve got multiple copies of Calvin Ridley, WR – Atlanta Falcons. The combination of depth at rookie RB, Ridley’s lack of huge stats at Alabama, a weak combine, and advanced age have sent the star wideout tumbling down draft boards in 2018 rookie drafts. These factors have given me a chance to own Ridley using 2nd round picks. I’m not passing up on 4.4 speed and elite route running in a high-powered offense with 2nd round picks of my rookie drafts.
In your eyes what causes “trade-high” value spikes?
Joshua Johnson – @DFF_Cog – Really anything that gets #DynastyTwitter going! If I see any of my league mates pumping up a certain player that I own, I will surely send them a “reaching for stars” offer. Often, I get a counter-offer back for a more reasonable price tag, but one that is still slanted in my direction (IMO). I do the same thing with podcasts. Recently I heard John @SlizzDigital Schepps profess his love Keelan Cole. I immediately check to see who owned Cole in the league that we are in together to see if I could squeeze him from them before Schepps did. Spoil Alert: Schepps already owned him, well-played brother, well-played. In another recent surge, I sent offers in every one of my leagues to the Hunter Henry owners after the ACL news. It worked in couple of leagues! I sold players like Tyler Kroft and Jesse James (essentially two backup TEs I noticed waivers for next to nothing) for multiple future picks. So, considering the value drop in Henry’s stock I was able to capitalize on basically a couple of warm bodies.
Ryan Santos – @FFLINX – Trade-high value spikes can come from several factors. Some include new editions to teams, coaching changes and QB changes. One of the more common “trade-high” values is on rookie draft picks. People love picks and right before draft time is the easiest time to sell those picks at a value. If there is a chance to trade assets at a higher price than I believe they are valued, I am more than glad to sell them.
John DiBari – @dibari22 – This is my favorite time of year for this very reason. Fans and fantasy owners starving for any football as the off-season concludes, start seeing all the leaked videos from OTAs and mini-camps. These people lose their minds when confirmation-bias kicks in. For example, let’s say someone already had high hopes for Peyton Barber, and a report says he’s in line for early-down work and a video emerges where he puts a fancy juke on some undrafted rookie free agent cornerback… you can bet his ADP jumps a bit in the coming weeks.
Shaun Crandall – @WhiskeyD0G: Value-spikes come from a multitude of areas today. The debut of Twitter in 2006 and the ability to instantaneously provide commentary on any subject can cause volatility in player value and in some cases a severe spike upwards. The “Herd Mentality” exhibited when an analyst places their stamp on a player via Twitter can cause that player’s value to skyrocket and substantially change their ADP.
Matt Walker @DFF_Walk – Value spikes are created when an individual’s perception becomes their reality. Whether groupthink or personal-bias driven, a player can realize a sell-high value-spike from any number of factors including draft stock, changing teams, new system, new head coach, offseason puff pieces, hype videos, etc. Dynasty owners need to know how to capitalize on those opportunities to maximize player ROI.
Kyle Francis @FranchiseKF I agree with most of what was said above.
Scott Osterloh @FF_EvilEmpire
Injuries play a large part in value-spikes. Hunter Henry went down with a year-ending injury. Immediately following the news, his owners were scrambling for replacement options. Injury replacement “trade-high” situations will happen throughout training camp and preseason, and as a savvy owner, you can take advantage of these opportunities every year.