With the 2018 fantasy football season officially underway I believe that this is precisely the time to look toward the 2019 fantasy season. There is no better time to make dynasty trades than when there could be a large discrepancy between what you know the value of a player to be, and how the player’s current owner values him. However, to figure out these discrepancies in value, you must look at what the player’s situation is this year, and what it projects to be next year. One of the easiest ways to do this type of analysis is to look at the salary cap and player contracts in question.
Some important factors that cause a losing team to move on from a player are age and the intention to clear up cap space for younger, more effective players. Different factors cause a contender to move on from a player, namely the capital required to keep all of the key pieces as they progress from their rookie contracts to larger second contracts at market value. As teams make these moves to stay or move into contender status, the situations of their players are constantly changing. By predicting how the player’s circumstances will change, an astute dynasty owner can take advantage of other owners who are not paying the same attention to what’s inevitable.
Two players I’d targets whose value is likely to increase significantly in the 2019 offseason are Daesean Hamilton and Tevin Coleman.
Daesean Hamilton’s situation is very much like the first team situation I described, where a team (Broncos) who are not yet in contention but could be if they were able to clear enough cap space to retain their performing young players as well to sign auxiliary veterans who would fill holes on the roster. On the surface, it would appear that the Broncos are set at wide receiver with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but a closer look shows that the Broncos may not be in contention at any point in their remaining contracts, they have less than 5 million dollars in dead money between them, and can be cut for a combined 25 million dollar cap savings.
Enter Hamilton, who may see a 3x or 4x uptick in snaps in 2019 compared to 2018. Buried behind Courtland Sutton for snaps this year, look to take advantage of a fantasy owner who is ready to write Hamilton off as a bust, and strike before his value heats up during the 2019 season. His zero stat line in week one against the Seahawks should only help keep his cost depressed.
Tevin Coleman’s boost in fantasy value is not because of a change in the situation of players around him, but rather a change in his own situation. While the Falcons have about 15 million dollars in cap space, they owe Devonta Freeman 8 million in 2019, which is in the top 10 running back salaries.
Additionally, Vic Beasley’s contract alone jumps up another 8 million between 2018 and 2019. Enter Coleman, a talented RB who has had to fight Freeman for snaps and is likely not to be part of the Falcons’ 2019 plans. While his ADP is currently in the 6th round, when he is signed by an RB-needy team in the 2019 offense, his value will shoot up similarly to what Jerick Mckinnon’s was, in the second or third round range.
Don’t wait to trade for these players until their value increases in the coming offseason. Trading for players a year in advance is a way to keep your team competitive in the long run. It just takes the foresight of projecting the situation of player in coming years, in addition to just this year, to truly score long-term wins in dynasty trades.
Who are you targeting today for a future payoff? Let me know on Twitter @NFLscoutTampa.
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