Over the offseason, I will be taking a look at several NFL players whose dynasty value seems to be a point of contention throughout the dynasty community. This “discord” is important for dynasty owners to understand. In startup drafts, and when making trades to improve your current teams it’s important to use this “discord” to your advantage. The more owners learn to stress dynasty player values, the more they’ll be able to target players who are being undervalued and capitalize on players with inflated value.
The first player I’ll be looking at is Green Bay Packers wide receiver,Davante Adams. Green Bay selected Adams in the 2nd round of the 2014 NFL Draft. He was wildly productive in college while at Fresno State, albeit against Mountain West Conference competition. Adams caught 233 passes for 3,031 yards, and 38 touchdowns during his freshman and sophomore seasons. He also showed himself to be a tremendous athlete and was a top performer at the NFL combine in regards to vertical leaping ability. Given this production, athleticism, and his 6’1, 215lb frame, it is easy to see why the Packers were willing to invest a 2nd round pick on Adams.
During his rookie season, Adams showed flashes but struggled to make an immediate impact. Before his second NFL season, Adams received a great opportunity when Packers star wide receiver Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in a preseason game and was forced to miss the entire 2015 NFL season. Adams was unable to capitalize on that opportunity, producing numbers that were similar to the statistics he produced during his rookie campaign. In 2016, however, Adams had a breakout year, catching 75 passes for 997 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He became one of Aaron Rodgers’ most trusted weapons, especially in the red zone where he established himself as a reliable threat. The 2017 season was another solid one for Adams. While Rodgers missed 9 games because of a clavicle injury, Adams still produced, catching 74 passes for 885 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
Adams is being drafted in the early 3rd round in dynasty startups mock drafts (pick 28 in DFF’s December ADP). I have seen him go even earlier (as high as early to mid 2nd round) in startups that I’ve participated in this offseason. Optimism around Adams’ value stems from a couple of sources.
First, his production over the last two seasons, the most recent with Brett Hundley as his quarterback for more than half the season. Second, Adams just signed a four year, $58 million contract extension that makes him the fourth highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. This also means it’s safe to assume that he will be playing with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback for the next four seasons, barring injury. Expecting Adams to take another big step up in production over the next several years is very reasonable.
Despite the optimism expressed above, there is discord among the dynasty community in regards to Adams’ value. Twitter pundits and nonbelievers are quick to point out that even playing with a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback in Rodgers, Adams is yet to produce more than 75 catches or 997 yards in a season, four years into his career. They also argue that most of Adams’ value comes from scoring touchdowns, and question whether Adams can continue to produce double-digit touchdowns moving forward, as TDs are a volatile statistic. Also, Adams has had multiple concussions during his career, so there is a risk when looking at career longevity.
These points all have some validity. I believe that Adams is primed to take the next step and become an elite fantasy wide receiver. Adams is 25 years old, and won’t turn 26 until late in the NFL season. Over the last two seasons, he’s caught 22 touchdown passes, and has earned the trust of his Hall of Fame quarterback. I fully expect Jordy Nelson to become a lesser part of the offense in Green Bay, which should provide even more opportunities for Adams to shine, and improve his catch and yardage totals.
Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @DFF_Brian, and let me know what you think. I welcome discussion and feedback.