The 2022 fantasy season has come to a close and many of us are reviewing the end-of-year performances while looking ahead to the future potential of some of our favorite players. Rookie fever, as we’ve grown accustomed to, has become a year-long epidemic with the recent influx of high-quality first-year players. With Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase bursting onto the scene it’s no wonder everyone is looking for the next guy with each passing class. 2022 is no different.
I’ve heard a ton of buzz recently about Chris Olave and where he ranks among the dynasty wide receivers after his incredibly productive and efficient rookie season. There is one debate I just can’t let slide. Chris Olave or Tee Higgins?
I should preface, both Chris Olave and Tee Higgins are excellent NFL wide receivers and dynasty assets but one is greater than the other, and that same one may also be undervalued. Keep reading, and hopefully, I’ve swayed you a bit by the end.
THE NUMBERS
Everybody loves numbers these days. Fortunately for the fantasy community, being a data nerd is all the rage.
One of the driving forces behind the increasing hype around Chris Olave is his ability to lead the New Orleans Saints in market share of targets and air yards, along with a high expected points per game (13.1). Olave was also highly efficient as a rookie. He finished the season with a 25.3% target share, 26.8% targets per route run, 2.46 yards per route run, and a 42.2% team air yards share.
He was undeniably awesome with a less-than-desirable situation at the quarterback position. We do have to ask ourselves though, does context matter? Olave played much of the season with a depleted wide receiver group. The Saints lost Michael Thomas and free agent acquisition Jarvis Landy for most of the year leaving Olave as one of the few competent pass catchers. Could he maintain these numbers with a healthy MT in the lineup? I think that’s unlikely. Can they fix their quarterback situation? That remains to be seen. Can he be this productive and efficient for a full season going up against the best defensive backs in the NFL? I’m not so sure given his profile. Players indeed earn their targets and production but the Saints are almost certain to add a wide receiver in the draft or free agency and that could impact the numbers that drive the narrative behind Olave’s dynasty value.
Let’s turn the page to Tee Higgins for a moment and compare his season-long metrics. Higgins finished the season with an 18.5% target share, 21.9% targets per route run, 2.20 yards per route run, and 28.1% team air yard share. While these numbers may seem to pale in comparison to Olave’s at first glance, I’d urge you to consider Higgins was playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase for the majority of the year. Speaking of Ja’Marr Chase, let’s take a look at the stretch Higgins played without him due to the hip injury suffered in Week 7.
Tee Higgins’s numbers from Week 8 through Week 12 look like this: 26.3% target share, 24.7% targets per route run, 2.54 yards per route run, and 46% team air yard share. Those numbers look eerily similar to the ones creating the hype around Olave as the better dynasty wide receiver…they almost look better…
Sure Higgins’s target share has been declining since Week 13, but I’d attribute that to Chase returning, minor injuries, and a focus on getting the run game going. What I am trying to illustrate is that Tee Higgins would be a more dominant and productive receiver given the same or similar role that Olave has been afforded due to injuries on his team. He proved that during the five weeks without Chase. In fact, he’s performing about just as well with one of the best receivers in football lined up on the other side of him. He also profiles more as a prototypical alpha at 6’4” 215. That certainly isn’t all-important but it’s another factor leaning in his favor. Higgins finished the season with 3.0 FPPG over expected (tied for 6th among pass catchers). Imagine what he could do as the number one option on his own team, but we will get to that shortly.
THE VALUE
In a shocking discovery, I found Chris Olave is currently ranked ahead of Tee Higgins per Dynasty League Football’s consensus dynasty Superflex rankings, but I was happy to find DFF’s consensus rankings have Olave ranked WR14 while Higgins is ranked WR7. I believe this discrepancy is in part due to the narrative built by the numbers laid out in the previous section. I don’t think very many dynasty managers or analysts are considering the context around Olave’s season or Higgins’ three-year career when making this determination. This presents an interesting opportunity in my eyes. I’m a value hawk and soaring above the sky, seeing a ton of value below.
Higgins is the more established player on a better offense with the opportunity to leave in free agency for a lead role in 2024. Higgins is still just 23 years old to Olave’s 22 for any of the ageists out there. The market is telling you that Olave can be sold for Higgins plus a rookie pick or player so I struggle to find a reason I want Chris Olave on my dynasty roster more than Tee Higgins.
THE CONCLUSION
Both Chris Olave and Tee Higgins are elite dynasty assets but it appears Olave is being a bit overvalued due to a strong rookie season with extremely high volume and opportunity that may not always be there. Tee Higgins is being undervalued due to playing alongside one of the best wide receivers in the game and slightly less eye-popping season-long metrics.
I’ve tried to lay out a strong case for Higgins and why he should be the higher-ranked dynasty wide receiver and the more sought-after asset.
You don’t necessarily need to sell Olave, even though he may be a good candidate, but you should be buying Tee Higgins! And you certainly could sell Olave for Higgins plus (AND I WOULD!).
Thank you for reading. I also discuss this topic in depth on my podcast: Dynasty Underdog. If you have any thoughts or questions and would like to discuss them, you can reach out to me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
