Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.
Dynasty values used for this article are from Keep Trade Cut, which is a Dynasty community-driven value tool.
Statistics used are from NFL PRO premium next-gen stats.
Yards Per Route Run has long been a staple advanced metric proving to be highly predictive of future wide receiver breakouts. These players have been efficient with their opportunities to date. Logic dates efficient players get more volume in the future.
| Wide Receiver | YPRR |
| A.J. Brown | 4.2 |
| Nico Collins | 3.7 |
| Rashee Rice | 3.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3.1 |
| George Pickens | 2.8 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2.7 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 2.6 |
| Jayden Reed | 2.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2.6 |
We need to start here with Jauan Jennings. Brandon Aiyuk just tore his ACL and is out for the season. A lot of people are buying up Ricky Pearsall right now, but Jennings is the target for me. He is currently fourth overall in yards per route run on limited routes. That volume is about to increase significantly.
Jauan Jennings is priced as the WR74 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
This may actually be more of a redraft take, as no one is selling Nico Collins in Dynasty at a discount. He is likely still two weeks away from returning from his hamstring injury. However, people need wins now, and if you can tolerate a couple of weeks to strengthen your team for the fantasy playoffs, do it. Tank Dell is clearly not healthy, and the Texans need Collins.
I am holding on to Nico Collins in Dynasty as the WR7. I am buying in redraft if he is at a steep discount due to his injury.
Russell Wilson may have just unlocked George Pickens. Pickens had his best fantasy output of the season this past week with Wilson at the helm.
| Wide Receiver | YPRR |
| Elijah Moore | .6 |
| Tre Tucker | .9 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1.0 |
| Tank Dell | 1.1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1.1 |
| Gabe Davis | 1.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1.1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1.1 |
I am giving the Browns wide receivers a pass for now as Deshaun Watson has been brutal this season. You could say the same thing for the Titans’ wide receivers.
You can still get something for the wide receivers below when packaged in a trade.
Tre Tucker is priced as the WR75 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Andrei Iosivas is priced as the WR70 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
There is simply no way Tank Dell is healthy. Being shot and shattering your leg will do that. In redraft, I have zero interest. If you are a rebuilder in Dynasty I’d be interested at the right price.
Tank Dell is priced as the WR34 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating. Once he gets to WR50 I am buying.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is 11th worst in yards per route run. Much of the bottom 10 are WRs on the Browns and Titans with putrid QB play.
JSN is still valued as the WR23 by the Dynasty community on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.
San Francisco 49er Wide Receivers
Week 7
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Cowing | 3 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 9.6% | 42.0% | 7.1 |
| Kittle | 7 | 6 | 92 | 0 | 22.6% | 26.9% | 3.5 |
| Pearsall | 5 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 16.1% | 19.2% | .8 |
Both Jennings and Samuel were out in Week 7, so this isn’t the best representation of future usage. Despite his first-round pedigree, Pearsall will be a hot waiver wire pickup. However, he had a rough analytical prospect profile. Plus, his advanced metrics in game one were poor. I would be surprised if he gives you consistent fantasy production. He ran a lot of routes to get those 21 yards, as evidenced by his low yards per route run.
Credit to Dwain Mcfarland for this stat pull
Deebo Samuel on the field without Brandon Aiyuk since 2021:
Targets: 38% (dear mother of god)
Air yards: 41% (holy #*&%)
Yards per route run: 4.88 (ummm… what?)
Massive UPGRADE coming for Samuel. Will be a WR1 the rest of the way.
Deebo Samuel is priced as the WR33 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Jauan Jennings is priced as the WR75 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Ricky Pearsall is priced as the WR49 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs
Week 7
| Rushes | Rush Yards | YPC | EPA/Att | 10+ runs | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| White | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | -.07 | 0 | 6 | 71 |
| Irving | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | -.03 | 0 | 3 | 25 |
| Tucker | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | -.2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
Earlier this week, Buccaneer’s offensive coordinator Liam Coen stated he would ride the hot hand, given Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker early work, and then allocate touches based on who performed best. The touch allocation was 16 for White, 12 for Irving, and 6 for Tucker.
Bucky Irving has proven to be the most consistent back for the entirety of the season. Rachaad White has been one of the least efficient backs in the NFL in the last two years. However, Tampa Bay can’t seem to quit him. Plus, he just got a huge bump in pass-game value with Godwin and Aiyuk out. (More on this in the next section)
Tucker has proven to be the most explosive back. On the season:
Rachaad White has four runs of 10+ yards on 61 attempts
Sean Tucker has seven runs of 10+ yards on 21 attempts
This situation is gross for fantasy. Irving has excellent value right now. We have been advocating him as a buy all season, and his value has skyrocketed. I would not hate it if you moved him and cashed in on your profit.
Bucky Irving is priced as the RB19 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Rachaad White is priced as the RB40 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating. I am buying from disgruntled Dynasty owners at a discount (Like RB50 prices)
Sean Tucker is priced as the RB46 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Tampa Bay Buccaneer Wide Receivers
Week 7
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Godwin | 9 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 20.0% | 22.0% | 1.6 |
| Evans | 3 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 6.7% | 33.3% | 2.8 |
| McMillan | 8 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 17.8% | 29.6% | .6 |
| Shephard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.2% | 3.7% | .6 |
| Otton | 10 | 8 | 100 | 0 | 22.2% | 23.3% | 2.3 |
| White | 6 | 6 | 71 | 2 | 13.3% | 40.0% | 4.7 |
Tampa had brutal injury luck in Week 7, losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Evans left the game early, while Godwin was injured very late. Cade Otton vaulted to the top of the target leaderboard and is very cheap to acquire. There will be a lot of demand for Jalen McMillan. Rachaad White is actually interesting as a receiving option, though his rushing is below average.
Cade Otton is priced as the TE18 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Jalen McMillan is priced as the WR59 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Sterling Shephard is priced as the WR158 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Honorable Mentions
Buy Troy Franklin
Despite poor 4th round draft capital, Franklin had an incredible analytical profile. Fourth-rounders have to earn every opportunity. First and second-rounders are given the opportunity and have to prove they are bad.
I posted this on Twitter in April.
*Click image to view full tweet*
Buy Jakobi Meyers
Meyers is priced as the WR58. Davante Adams was just traded to the Jets. He has accumulated 9,10, and 9 targets in his last three games.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
