Fantasy point production is not always the best predictor of future fantasy point production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great for fantasy.
This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider trading.
Data Sources: PFF, Fantasy Pros, NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats
Week 1 Target Share Leaders
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 – 45.8%
- Justin Jefferson 9 – 39.1%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 14 – 35.9%
- Kalif Raymond 9 – 34.6%
- Puka Nacua 9 – 33.3%
- Stefon Diggs 9-31.0%
- Malik Nabers 9-31.0%
- Garrett Wilson 7-30.4%
- Matthew Golden 12-30.0%
- Malik Washington 8-29.6%
- D.J. Moore 8-28.6%
- Parker Washington 6-28.6%
- DeVonta Smith 6-27.3%
- Nico Collins 10-27.0%
- D.K. Metcalf 10-27.0%
Target share is one of the first advanced stats to stabilize and provide us with a predictor for future weeks. Here are a few highlights related to target share from Week 1:
- JSN picked up right where he left off from last year with a wild 46% target share.
- I would be buying Stefon Diggs as a contender. He is probably the best option you can get for a 3rd that will be a reliable starter. Jayden Daniels was running for his life. Diggs is a reliable quick outlet, whereas McLaurin is a downfield threat.
- Parker Washington lived up to the off-season hype, easily pacing the Jaguars in target share. The Jags didn’t have to pass much in this game as they blew out the Browns. That signals there is upside to his raw surface stats in future weeks when the game script is more favorable to passing.
- Similar to the Jaguars, the Eagles were also in a positive game script Sunday. This led to a low overall pass-attempt game. We got to see how the distribution shook out without A.J. Brown. As noted in prior articles this off-season, DeVonta Smith’s target share was amplified to the high 20’s sans Brown. Smith became the primary funnel for targets in week 1 with a healthy 27.3% rate.
- It’s clear the Packers are looking to get a return on their investment, pelting former first round pick Matthew Golden with 12 targets. With only six receptions and no td’s his surface stats don’t line up with the usage so he should still be a value in fantasy land. This was one of the more surprising usages and would indicate Golden is a strong buy for Dynasty.
- Malik Washington was an off-season buy for me. His profile and the Miami receiving room provided a clear path to targets. The Dolphins will be trailing a lot this season. Washington is another player you can get for cheap (mid-3rd round pick) who will be able to provide a reliable source of production.
Other Usage Highlights from Week 1
Christian McCaffrey: 2025 avg. vs 2026 Game 1
- Snap Share: 84% vs. 55%
- Rush Attempts Share: 65% vs 33%
- Rush Attempt Share inside the 10-yard line: 88% vs (No data)
- Routes Run Per Game: 23.2 vs 22
Takeaway: If Week 1 is indicative of CMC’s usage. So long as he can maintain the high-value usage in the pass game and at the goal line, he can absorb less low-value rush workload between the 20s and be more efficient. He will be fine.
A.J. Brown went down in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain. He will be out for an extended time (4-6 weeks). In his absence, the second-half target distribution was:
Hollins is widely available (16% rostered on Sleeper) and Douglas is available in many leagues (42% rostered on Sleeper).
Week 1 Tight End Route Participation Leaders
- Colston Loveland – 91%
- Tyler Warren – 88%
- Trey McBride – 87%
- Cade Otton – 86%
- Sam LaPorta – 83%
- Juwan Johnson – 82%
- Kyle Pitts – 81%
- Mark Andrews – 79%
- Dallas Goedert – 79%
- Michael Mayer – 77%
- Harold Fannin – 77%
Colston Loveland had an insane 91% route participation Sunday for the Bears in their 59-point explosion. So naturally, he put up a big goose egg for fantasy. If anyone is selling, BUY!!!!!!! That route participation for a perhaps historically good offense is going to print fantasy points.
Dallas Goedert looks like he will be one of the better picks vs ADP in leagues this year. He recorded 77 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, and Makai Lemon doesn’t look ready for the NFL yet, with his worst-ever yardage debut (-5 yards) for a first-round rookie wide receiver.
Most RB Forced Missed Tackles
This is a nice showing for Tuten, picking up the yards that weren’t necessarily there. He out-carried Chris Rodriguez 15-6. The question in future weeks is who gets the goal-line carries, as there weren’t any to be had in this game.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. All of my articles have one goal in common. That goal is to provide you, our member, with actionable advice that can improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft
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