In this article, I’m going to walk you through three players that had a down season in 2019, but who I expect to either bounce back or breakout in 2020. For variety’s sake, I’ve decided to look at a running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Also, I’ve picked three very different types of players to explore the different ways to buy at this time in the offseason.
Ian Thomas (TE – CAR):
Starting with Thomas, we have a player that somewhat broke out in 2018 but then returned to relative irrelevance in 2019. The Panthers drafted Thomas in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He was considered to be a long-term project and the eventual replacement for Greg Olsen. However, starting tight end Greg Olsen went down with injuries at multiple points during the season, allowing Thomas to have a turn at the starting tight end spot. On the other hand, when Olsen was healthy and active, he dominated tight end snaps, relegating Thomas to a bit-part role.
Given that Thomas flashed in 2018, some people expected Thomas to challenge Olsen for targets and snaps in 2019. In contrast to that idea, Thomas was held without a catch through the first 10 games. If you look at the above table, you can see that Thomas’ opportunity and production severely declined from 2018 to 2019. Thomas finally received an opportunity when Olsen went down with a late-season injury, and he recorded those 16 receptions for 136 yards and one touchdown over the final six games.
Looking forward to 2020, it seems like Greg Olsen will be moving on from the Panthers or retiring, based on his post-season comments. Therefore, Thomas will be a full-time player in 2020. Considering the hire of Matt Rhule as head coach and LSU passing game specialist Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, the Panthers’ offense has the potential to take a significant step forward in 2020. Therefore, while I expect all the Panthers’ players to be solid dynasty risers, Thomas is the cheapest way to get in on a potentially explosive offense. Try to grab him now for a third-round rookie pick and reap the rewards in 2020.
A.J. Green (WR – CIN):
Unlike Thomas, Green didn’t play any games in 2019. After suffering an ankle injury in training camp and then a few setbacks, Green ended up missing the entire season. In Green’s last full season in 2017, he recorded 75 receptions on 143 targets for 1078 yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as the WR11. In 2018, in just nine games, Green managed 46 receptions on 77 targets for 694 yards and six touchdowns, good for a 16-game pace of 82 receptions for 1234 yards and around 10.5 touchdowns, even better than his 2017 line. Therefore, when Green was last healthy, he was still clearly a WR1.
Looking forward to 2020, Green is a pending free agent. If he remains in Cincinnati, whether via the franchise tag or an extension, he will almost certainly play with future number one pick Joe Burrow. While no rookie quarterback is a guaranteed success, I firmly believe that from day one, Burrow will be a superior quarterback to anything Andy Dalton has ever been. Therefore, if Green stays with the Bengals, he will have a significant quarterback upgrade for the first time in his career.
On the other hand, if Green leaves the Bengals, I expect that he will only go to a team with a solid offense and reliable quarterback. I don’t see Green as the type of player that will blindly sign the biggest contract offered, and there are many spots in the NFL where he could fit in nicely. Green Bay is probably the best option for Green, where he could form a dynamic duo with Davante Adams catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have supported two WR1s in fantasy in the past, with Jordy Nelson and Adams and earlier Nelson and Cobb finishing as WR1s in the same year. Also, I would expect the 49ers to be in play for Green. The 49ers need a true alpha wide receiver to pair with tight end George Kittle and young receiver Deebo Samuel, and Green would be a perfect option on a two or three-year deal.
In terms of the buying price, I still value Green around a late first or and early second-round rookie pick in standard dynasty leagues. However, given that Green hasn’t played since the middle of 2018, I expect that you will only have to pay a mid-2nd at most for him. Given that I believe Green could still have a WR1 year in 2020, that price is an easy price to pay.
Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI):
Unlike Thomas and Green, Cohen played all 16 games in 2019 and had a somewhat similar role from 2018 to 2019. His snap count moved up from 46% in 2018 to 50% in 2019. He once again played as a satellite back behind a two-down thumper and was also used a bit as a slot receiver. While he only had 64 carries in 2019, compared to 99 in 2018, he went from 91 targets to 104 and recorded 79 receptions instead of 71. Somehow, though, he went from finishing as the PPR RB11 in 2018 to the RB27 in 2019.
Touchdown regression hit Cohen hard in 2019, where he scored just three total touchdowns, compared to eight in 2018. Also, his yards per carry declined from 4.5 to 3.3, and his yards per reception went from an incredible 10.2 to a horrific 5.8. Cohen failed to break many big plays in 2019, with his longest run being just 19 yards and his longest reception only 31.
Therefore, the main takeaway with Cohen is that not much has changed in terms of his opportunity share, but his value has plummeted. After the 2018 season, Cohen was routinely valued at an early to mid-first-round rookie pick. Now, some owners barely even value Cohen as a second. If that valuation is happening in your league, and you can grab Cohen for a late second or even an early third, I would pounce. He will turn 25 before this season, and unlike typical running backs, satellite backs like Cohen tend to age more gracefully. I expect him to have multiple productive seasons ahead of him, and he is also an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season. Getting away from Mitch Trubisky and his deficiencies on offense could allow Cohen to reinvent himself with a new team. Buy him now because his value and hype will never be lower.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out anytime! I’ve been taking fantasy questions lately and trying to help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
