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@DFF_Mste’s GPP Playbook: Week 2

Last week was all about the chalk. So much so that this week’s Milly-Maker winner was literally called ‘Chalk’ with an outrageous 301.18 points.

This opening weekend was incredible with more points than we’ve seen in a very long time. The average minimum cash in GPPs was 166.1 points and 200.32 in Cash. Compare this to Week 1 of 2017, where GPP min-cash was 133.25 and just 129.85 in Cash games!

This week we will be focusing on GPP plays, with multiple picks at each position at varying salaries, so that no matter how you are constructing a line-up this week one of these guys will slot right in.

 

Quarterback

 

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,900 vs KC) – STACK OF THE WEEK

The Kansas City Chiefs were touted as a bad defense coming into 2018 and they showed their colors in Week 1. The Chiefs allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 424 yards and 3 TDs for 33 DK points. Big Ben was frustrated by the Browns in Week 1 and is sure to come out firing this week at home against this leaky defense. The stack with Antonio Brown ($8,800) is the play to build your lineups around.

Alex Smith ($6,000 vs IND)

Alex Smith looked great in Week 1, completing 21 of 30 passes for 255 and 2 TDs. He also rushed the ball 8 times for 14 yards totalling 19.6 DK points, away to a supposedly stout Arizona Defense. This week he gets to face a poor Indy defense at home. He has already shown a great rapport with Chris Thompson ($5,500), who led the Redskins in targets in Week 1 with 7. The Skins blew out the Cardinals last week. Andrew Luck and the Colts should be able to keep up and force Smith to throw throughout the game.

Case Keenum ($5,800 vs OAK)

Keenum had a huge Week 1 performance. 3 Interceptions were not enough to stop him, putting up 25.2 DK points vs the Seahawks. The Raiders have not found their rhythm on offense yet and they are unlikely to find it at Mile High. Last week vs the Raiders, Jared Goff completed just 18 passes but still put up 233 yards and 2 TDs. The stack of Keenum and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,200) put up 57.7 DK points in Week 1 and should be fruitful once again.

 

Running Backs

 

Every Week Play: Alvin Kamara ($9,500 vs CLE)

If you can fit him into your line-up start him, no explanation needed.

Melvin Gordon ($7,400 @ BUF)

Melvin Gordon is the best three-down back in the league. $7,400 is criminally cheap, especially against this Buffalo defense. 15 rushes for 64 yards in Week 1 was not earth-shattering. But with 13 targets and 9 receptions for 105 yards for 30.6 DK points without scoring a touchdown was incredible. If he continues to be priced at under $8,000, I will be playing him without a second thought every week.

James Connor ($6,700 vs KC)

Ok, I dropped the ball on Connor last week. While fading him was a solid strategy on paper, he made myself and Le’veon Bell look like fools as he went out and exploded with 31 carries for 135 yards and 2 TDs. He also added 4 reception from 5 targets for 57 yards, totalling 38.2 DK points, single-handedly sinking all of my lineups in Week 1. As long as he is commanding 35+ touches per game he needs to be started, especially this week against the terrible Chiefs D.

Chris Thompson ($5,900 vs IND)

Thompson picked up exactly where he left off in 2017. The explosive back turned 5 carries into 65 yards and caught 6 of 7 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown for 24.8 DK points. Thompson has led the league in yards per reception at the RB position since the beginning of 2017 and the Colts have given up the most YPR to RBs over the same period of time. This has the makings of a shoot-out with the line currently sitting at 47.5 points. Thompson led the team in targets in Week 1. As long as that continues he will be a great play in GPPs.

Tevin Coleman ($5,200 vs CAR)

Devonta Freeman has been ruled out of Week 2’s contest with Carolina meaning it’s wheels up for Tevin Coleman. In 3 games without Freeman, Coleman has rushed 57 times for 250 yards and 3 TDs. At $5,200 the volume he should command is impossible to ignore and is the closest we have to a ‘free square’ running back this week.

Royce Freeman ($4,300 vs OAK)

I’m doubling down on Royce this week after Philip Lindsey came out of nowhere to split the backfield in Week 1. Royce is the most talented back on the roster and should assume the lead role as soon as this week. He was productive last week despite seeing stacked boxes on 66% of his carries, accruing 71 yards on 15 carries. The Broncos should control this game, meaning he sees a lot of work with huge TD upside.

Nyheim Hines ($4,100 @ WAS)

Hines is exactly what you want in a low price GPP play. His game has a high expected points total of 47.5. He is extremely active in the passing game as he was targeted 9 times in Week 1, catching 7 passes from Andrew Luck. Hines also ran the ball 5 times for 19 yards. Finally, his name does not stick out of the crowd so his ownership should be relatively low. If he again sees the work he did in Week 1, he is one big play away from returning massive value.

Peyton Barber ($4,000 vs PHI)

This is a play based on pure volume. Barber carried the ball 19 times in Week 1 and his main competitor, Royce Jones, was a healthy scratch. The Philly defense is no pushover allowing 74 total rushing yards and a TD to Atlanta in Week 1 on 18 attempts. It would only take Barber breaking one long run to make all of the difference. You will struggle to find anyone else with this volume anywhere near this price.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Antonio Brown ($8,800 vs KC) – STACK OF THE WEEK

AB saw 16 targets Week 1 in Cleveland and now he plays a poor Chiefs defense at home. This isn’t a hard one to justify. Do not overthink it. Just fit him in where you can.

Emmanuel Sanders ($6,200 vs OAK)

Sanders was another target monster in Week 1, catching 10 of 11 targets for 135 yards and a TD. Keenum and Sanders have quickly become best friends and we are all going to benefit from it.

Kenny Stills ($5,700 @ NYJ)

I was super high on Stills last week and boy did he pay off: 4 receptions on 5 targets for 106 yards and 2 TDs. The Jets were a force last week. If they show anything near the form of last week, the Dolphins are going to need to throw the ball from start to finish in this one. Kenny Stills is the biggest threat on the roster.

Chris Hogan ($5,400 @ JAX)

Starting a wide receiver vs the Jaguars is not something I like to do as a rule, but I think there is a lot of sneaky upside in Hogan. Jalen Ramsey stuck to Rob Gronkowski in the playoffs and looks like he will again after his comments this week. The Pats find a way to move the ball and Hogan has a good chance for it to be through him this week. The added bonus to taking a punt on Hogan is that after he let down a lot of people last week (19.9% ownership) his ownership will fall off severely.

Kenny Golladay ($4,800 @ SF)

The Lions are 7 point underdogs in this one after their atrocious display vs the Jets in Week 1, so Vegas expects them to be chasing this game. We saw what that looks like last week and that is a lot of targets for Kenny Golladay. Golladay saw 12 targets last week, catching 7 for 114 yards.

Quincy Enunwa ($4,700 vs MIA)

Much like Golladay, the targets this guy is going to see relative to his price is huge. Enunwa commanded 10 of the Jets’ 21 passing attempts, leading the league in target share. He caught 6 of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. If he commands the same workload this week he should return massive value.

Geronimo Allison ($3,800 vs MIN)

Geronimo Allison has a lot of positives coming into this contest as Xavier Rhodes is going to be all over Davante Adams. He’s coming off a big game: 5 receptions from 8 targets for 69 yards and a TD. Aaron Rodgers has trust in him. Rodgers went to him in several clutch moments in Week 1, including his TD. The upside here is huge and getting a piece of Green Bay’s offense for this cheap is a steal, no matter which defense they’re up against.  

 

Tight End

 

Jordan Reed ($5,000 vs IND)

In Week 1, Reed saw 5 targets, catching 4 for 48 yards and a TD. If Reed is healthy, he is a locked in top 5 TE, even more so with the TE-loving Alex Smith under center.

George Kittle ($3,800 vs DET)

San Francisco’s entire passing game ran through Kittle in Week 1. He caught 5 of his 9 targets for 91 yards. The Lions defense fell to pieces last week and Jimmy Garappolo will look to carve them up again in Week 2. Marquise Goodwin is out again this week and Pierre Garcon did not fire this past week, leaving Kittle as the best option for Jimmy G. At $3,800, Kittle is a steal for the volume he will see.

 

Defense

For incredible insight into how to best select your DFS Defense, check out this article from Matt Jones (@MattJonesTFR): https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/putting-the-d-in-dfs/

 

Chargers ($3,600 @ BUF)

As expected the Ravens dominated Buffalo from the get-go last week, so this is part 2 of the new rule for 2018: play whichever Defense is facing Buffalo. Lock it in and don’t think about it.

Broncos ($3,300 vs OAK)

Denver sacked Russell Wilson 6 times last week, had 2 interceptions and forced 1 fumble. This week they get to face the crumbling Oakland Raiders. The Rams D dominated the Raiders in Week 1 with 3 Interceptions including a Pick 6. This is going to be a tough week for the Raiders.

 

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mstephenson

Editor and Director of #DFS content for @DFF_Dynasty and Writer for @DFF_Redraft.

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