DFF Early Off-Season Redraft Mock: Dual-threat Mindset

I took a different approach to this redraft mock draft than I would in the past. I tend to lean heavily on the top-level wide receivers but I’ve talked a lot this offseason about changing that mindset.

Bell cow running backs are becoming less common every year and therefore are much more valuable. Players like Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones are dual-threat fantasy players. They can run the ball and catch passes while a receiver rarely gets any rushing production. You will see this strategy reflect in my selections during the early rounds of this draft. 

1.08 – Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

Six running backs were selected in the first seven picks, taking my top-5 off the board. I love Joe Mixon, but 1.08 is just too rich for my blood and Davante Adams has about zero competition as the clear number one option for Aaron Rodgers. 

Adams missed four games in 2019 and finished as the WR26, but was sixth in fantasy points per game (17.3). Adams was the fantasy WR2 in 2018 when he was healthy and I see no reason why he can’t finish in the top five in 2020. 

The Packers certainly are focusing more on running the ball, being safer with the football, but Adams received a 30.3% target share last season (3rd in the league). And Green Bay hasn’t done anything to address their lack of receiving talent behind Adams, so I don’t see his workload decreasing anytime soon. 

2.05 – Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

This is where I begin building my running back stable. Jones was one of the few running backs left I’m confident will receive the majority of the workload. He’s a threat on the ground and through the air, resulting in him being able to be on the field all three downs.

Last season, he caught 49 of 68 targets for 474 yards and three touchdowns on top of his 1,084 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. He accounted for 19 total touchdowns and was the RB2 in PPR formats. Jones is in the last year of his contract and I don’t see any reason why the Packers wouldn’t feed him back as they did in 2019. I’ll take a previous top-three running back in the middle of the second round any day. 

3.08 – Le’Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets

I’m sorry, but if you’re not excited about drafting Le’Veon Bell at the back of the third round, I’m not sure what you’re doing. 

He finished as the RB15 last year in a terrible situation. The Jets have already begun to address their offensive line by signing a Gaurd, Center, and Offensive Tackle this offseason. Let’s not forget Bell has finished as a top-five fantasy back multiple years in a row before (2016-2017). I’m drafting a running back in the third round with top-five upside. This is an easy pick for me. 

4.05 – Robert Woods, WR, LA Rams

I was super excited to find Robert Woods available in the fourth round. I will admit I was down on his at the end of the year because he was a bit inconsistent. But much of it had to do with their offensive line and Jared Goff not playing well.

Yes, I didn’t like his situation with Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks eating up valuable targets. But, everything changes now that Cooks has been traded to the Texans. Woods was a WR2 last year with two other extremely talented options around him. 

He now has top-15 upside in the Rams’ offense. I’d expect them to lean on their passing game now that Todd Gurley is out of the picture and they don’t have a proven running game. I don’t think everybody has caught on to the opportunity Woods will be afforded in 2020, and I’ll continue to take advantage of that until they do. 

5.08 – Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

I took a break from running backs for one pick but I’m back at it here taking a shot in the fifth round. 

I’m not the biggest Kerryon Johnson fan, but he’s one of the few running backs left who has an opportunity to become a workhorse. It’s clear the Lions want to lean on him to stabilize their offense, but injuries have derailed his first two seasons. The Lions are likely candidates to select one of the many running backs available in the NFL draft, but Johnson still has 2nd round draft capital keeping hopes alive. 

6.05 – Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts

I didn’t think David Johnson and David Montgomery would go before Marlon Mack, but that happened. Even though I said Johnson was one of the few with an opportunity to receive all the work, Mack certainly is in that category as well. 

We’re all frightened by Nyheim Hines’s existence, but Mack did receive 247 carries last year. The issue is he was severely underutilized in the passing game with just 17 targets coming his way. The strange thing is he’s proven before that he’s a valuable option in the passing game, so I’m hoping he gets more receiving opportunities with Philip Rivers‘s tendency to check it down to his running backs.  

7.08 – Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Detroit Lions

Marvin Jones Jr. seemed like a no brainer with the wide receiver pool drying up. He finished as the WR24 last year but has top-12 upside. He’s consistently either a WR2/WR3 when healthy, and I’ll take that as my third receiver when only required to start two. 

There’s definitely an injury concern since he’s missed 10 games over the last two seasons, but good things happen when he’s on the field. So, I’ll take the risk. 

8.05 – Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Usually, I wait a bit longer on the quarterback but I’m happy to take Dak Prescott in the eighth round. He finished as the fantasy QB3 last year and we already know Amari Cooper will be back to assist his production. Prescott didn’t get the long term deal but at least we know he gets his weapons back in 2020 and should produce fantasy points at a similar rate. 

9.08 – Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants

Sterling Shephard has played a full season just twice in his four-year career but he’s been productive when on the field. 

He finished with 66 receptions on 107 targets for 872 yards and four touchdowns in 2018. He dealt with concussions last year and missed six games. But, without the injuries, he has WR2 potential. He’s going to be Daniel Jones’s first or the second option in 2020, so I’m hoping he’ll see close to a hundred targets again and exceed expectations. 

10.5 – Dallas Goedert, TE, Philidelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert saw his targets essentially double from 2018 to 2019. He caught 58 of 87 targets for 607 yards and five touchdowns. He’s consistently becoming more involved and rumors have Zach Ertz being traded before the season starts. 

Whether that happens or not, Goedert finished as the TE10 behind Ertz, should see another increase in targets, and I want a piece of the action. 

11.8 – Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans

I took Goedert knowing I was going to take another tight end immediately after to ensure I would have at least one viable option every week. 

I was actually surprised Jonnu Smith was still around in the eleventh round. We know Ryan Tannehill can’t pass up a good tight end. And Smith is in line for a majority increase in workload with Delanie Walker out of the picture. Smith finished as TE19 last year behind Walker and inconsistency at the quarterback position. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up as a top-12 tight end this year. 

12.5 – Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Cheifs 

I know, I know. Sammy Watkins can’t stay healthy and is inconsistent. But that’s why he’s being drafted in the 12th round.

 I’m taking a flyer on a player who just got a new deal and catches passes from the best quarterback in the league. He was instrumental in the Chiefs Super Bowl win and will be used when healthy. This isn’t the worst player to have as your fourth or fifth wide receiver.

13.8 – Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

My last pick of the draft was Baker Mayfield. I don’t always take a second quarterback in 1QB leagues, but Mayfield’s upside was better than any of the other options on the board at the time. He’s not only a solid option as a backup during the bye week, but he could break out and hold trade value as well.

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Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.