The DFF Army got together again after the NFL Draft for its analyst-only 2023 Rookie Mock Draft. Here we randomly selected spots and ran the draft in a linear order; the settings are Superflex and PPR. Hopefully, this can help give you an updated sense of the players you should be considering in your draft. Check out every selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick.
2.01 – Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
I am back and forth on Devon Achane and Zach Charbonnet as my RB3 as I have been all summer. I would be happy getting either right here though. As much as I hate the 1.07-1.09 range, I feel like at 2.01 I am getting good value in all my drafts. Someone I am not as high on goes in the 1st and I see a player I like fall further than expected. Achane is a prospect with a specific skill set but landed in a great location with awesome draft capital. The system he is going to be in has been great for fantasy running backs in the past. There is a ton of potential upside here but I am aware that this pick could let me down at some point. I think all the prospects here carry risk but few carry this level of upside.
2.02 – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017⚙️
We do not see first-round tight ends very often anymore but we got one this year and he just happened to go to one of the league’s top passing attacks with no solidified second receiver. Not to mention, the Bills traded up in the first to secure Kincaid. I love seeing those types of moves and they give me increased confidence in the prospect. I am not usually a fan of taking tight ends in rookie drafts but in this scenario, at this cost, I think it is a good move.
2.03 – Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Kendre Miller has a solid rushing profile, and he was a third-round selection to a team with future uncertainty at the RB position. That is the rationale for taking him in the early second round. Still, I struggle to see the upside case for Miller, who doesn’t project to have much of a receiving role in the NFL. If Alvin Kamara is indeed suspended, and Miller can string together a few productive RB2 weeks early in the season, I would be looking to trade high.
2.04 – Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
Marvin Mims being taken in the second round of the NFL Draft is exactly what many of his proponents hoped for. Some aren’t enthusiastic about the landing spot but I expect a bounce back from Russell Wilson and Sean Payton hand-picked Mims. I’d like to think they intend on him developing into at least the WR2 next to Jerry Jeudy. Mims has plenty of potential and he has a coaching staff well-known for clever offensive schemes and getting the most out of their players.
2.05 – Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
The great thing about Josh Downs getting drafted in the third is it now suppresses his Dynasty rookie draft average draft position. I love the value of getting him at the 2.05. The NFL does not value slot receivers in a way that closely correlates to fantasy production. They don’t help the team in other ways besides actual receiving production.
Downs can’t block and he won’t open up the field for others like an x. What he does do tremendously well is produce receptions and yards. He will be Anthony Richardson’s new best friend and make him better in the process.
Downs has a pristine analytical profile with the top RYPTPA in this class at 3.52, college career fantasy points per game of 20.8 (1 of only 3 to cross the 20-point threshold), and a sophomore year breakout.
2.06 – Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
Tim Riley – @FF_Reez
Jonathan Mingo could be the biggest Riser post-NFL Draft. He’s a big target attached to Bryce Young for the next four years. The production profile leaves me wanting more, but he has all the tools and traits to be productive in the NFL.
He possesses the physicality to give defensive backs headaches at the next level. Mingo is very efficient with his footwork and shows the ability to play multiple wide receiver positions. He enters a situation with a clear path to a significant target share. He’s a clear value to me in the middle of the second round of rookie drafts.
2.07 – Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
We are reaching a bit of the sloppy part of the draft right here now. I am not a huge fan of any of the prospects so I decided just to take Jalin Hyatt here. Similar to my last pick with Achane at 2.01, I think there is a bit more upside than some of the other players at this spot. We have seen the man score five touchdowns in a single game before. The landing spot is not bad but I am not sure how much I trust Daniel Jones to get the ball down the field to unlock that part of his game. The depth chart there is not gonna be hard to battle through for touches though so he should be able to get on the field relatively quickly. Maybe he can have a massive week and I can flip him for a 2024 first.
2.08 – Sam LaPorta, TE, DET Lions
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017⚙️
Here I am again, drafting a tight end in a rookie draft. LaPorta played at the TE factory known as Iowa, had good production, and scored a 9.02 RAS out of 10 so he is a great athlete. Athleticism and draft capital matter a lot more at tight end than other positions so LaPorta having great marks in those two things instills a lot of confidence for him in me. Plus, he went to a good landing spot that is not afraid to use their TE.
2.09 – Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Paul Patterson – @paul_dff
Unlike Kendre Miller, I actually believe that Tank Bigsby possesses a three-down skillset. Unfortunately, he landed behind Travis Etienne, a young, efficient RB who is under contract for at least two more seasons. This means that the upside case for Bigsby is almost entirely contingent on the health of Etienne. I still want that upside on my roster, but I can’t justify spending more than a late second-round pick on him.
2.10 – Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
Looking back I might go Roschon Johnson if I had a chance to pick again but I think Tillman has a strong shot at the WR2 spot this year, Donovan Peoples-Jones is fine but limited and Elijah Moores still has a lot to prove. Tillman was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft showing the Browns at least have some confidence in his abilities. I’ve seen Tillman fall to the middle of the third in rookie drafts so you certainly don’t have to reach if you want to take a shot.
2.11 – Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
Roschon Johnson didn’t have the opportunity as the other top running back prospects as he was relegated to a backup role behind Bijan Robinson. However, when he did get the opportunity he shined. Johnson led the country in avoided tackles per attempt. This is especially impressive considering his prototype NFL size of 6’2” and 220 lbs. He is also a good receiving back ranking eighth among running backs in yards per route run.
Then there is the landing spot. We know the Bears like to run and David Montgomery is gone. That leaves only Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman as competition for touches with Johnson.
2.12 – Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Tim Riley – @FF_Reez
The third-round pick from Tulane has some knee injury history. However, his ability to create yards after contact might be the best in the class. He has high-level elusiveness that could translate to schemed opportunities in the open field.
He’s landing in one of the best long-term spots in the draft for Dynasty value. It’s uncertain how much more time Derrick Henry has left in Tennessee. The Titans could use this year to determine exactly how much of a workload Spears can handle. At this point of a draft, you can’t ask for a better dart throw.
1.01 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
We have known for a long time who the 1.01 would be in rookie drafts for a while. Now we officially know where he will be playing. While the Falcons are not the sexiest landing spot I still love it. Arthur Smith has shown that if he has an elite guy he will use him a bunch like he did in Tennessee with Derrick Henry. I can also see a bunch of check downs in garbage time as we did in Saquon Barkley’s rookie season. If you are in the biggest of rebuilds right now then I would still say to take Bijan here and then attempt to trade him closer to the season. Either for a rookie you like and some 2024 capital or use Bijan Plus to get a better long-term asset. To me, the tier gap feels too much to ignore even if you are not in the market for a running back.
1.02 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017⚙️
This is going to be hotly debated on Twitter for the next few months. Should Anthony Richardson be the 1.02/QB one in the class? My answer is yes. Pre-Draft I was just like everyone else with many concerns about Richardson’s throwing and therefore his safety in the NFL. He was a high-risk/high-reward asset. But now the math has changed. We have more information and we should be using it. The Colts investing a top-five pick into AR means two things, the first is that they believe in him to be a successful NFL quarterback. The second is that he now has great value insulation even if he does not play well immediately. So, AR now has not only the highest upside of the class, but also a very safe NFL floor, and a high fantasy floor. He has a great range of outcomes and should be the QB1 in all leagues.
1.03 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Paul Patterson – @paul_dff
Jahmyr Gibbs is a top-five Dynasty RB. He’s an early first-round pick with 4.36 wheels and the best-receiving profile we’ve seen since Christian McCaffrey. And this high-powered Lions offense with check-down king Jared Goff at the helm is a perfect fit for Gibbs’ skillset. He has a 100-target upside as soon as this season.
Check out my full breakdown of Gibbs here.
1.04 – Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
I think Gibbs at 1.03 over Bryce Young is madness in a Superflex league but Paul is here to prove me wrong. I’m happy to have the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft fall to me here at four. The landing spot isn’t the best but also isn’t the worst. I love what I see from Young in terms of processing and pocket awareness. He doesn’t have much missing between the ears. Here is to hoping size concerns are way overblown.
1.05 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
My love for JSN is well publicized. He is far and away my top wide receiver in this class and I love the predictability and value retention at the receiver position for Dynasty. They are foundational pieces for my Dynasty teams.
I have often stated that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 3.25 receiving yards per team pass attempt as a sophomore playing alongside older superstar NFL players Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave is the single most impressive predictive analytic metric I have ever seen. JSN is as blue-chip a player as you will come across in a Dynasty rookie draft.
His first year may be less than expected with Metcalf and Lockett alongside but Lockett is likely out next year when JSN can truly break out.
1.06 – C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Tim Riley – @FF_Reez
It’s nothing short of criminal to allow a player as talented as Stroud to fall this far in rookie drafts. My number-ranked quarterback pre-draft, C.J. Stroud, took a slight dip after the Texans traded away future assets to select DE Will Anderson. An excellent football move, but they gave up future draft picks that could’ve been used to solidify the offense further. Although he lacks the ceiling to be a truly elite fantasy QB, Stroud should be locked in as a fringe top-12 quarterback for the foreseeable future. This pick is a steal and a move I’ll make whenever it falls to me.
1.07 – Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
The first six picks have become complete chalk at this stage. At 1.07, I would prefer to move back more than anything from a strategy perspective. See if you can get a mid-second and a 2024 first or move back to the end of the 1st for a 2024 second. If you cannot manage to make a deal, I think that Addison is the pick here. While I’m hardly a huge Jordan Addison truther, I think he is the preferred choice to Quentin Johnston or Zay Flowers. This also feels too high for any of the running backs for me.
1.08 – Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017⚙️
Quentin Johnston is actually my WR2 and my rookie 1.07 so it is nice to get him here. I think Addison and Johnston are similar in terms of value though and have a hard time choosing between them. My main tiebreaker for them is the absolute upside. I think Johnston has a profile that could allow him to become a top-five Dynasty WR, similar to Ja’Marr Chase or A.J. Brown. Now, don’t read those names and think I am comparing Johnston to them, because he isn’t. I just think his WR archetype is more similar to guys that can reach the pinnacle of Dynasty success than Addison’s is.
1.09 – Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Paul Patterson – @paul_dff
Zay Flowers is my WR4 in this rookie class, a tier behind Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston. He has some warts in his analytical profile that the other two do not, and I think his landing spot is the worst of the three from a pass-volume perspective. That being said, I think he’s worthy of the 1.09 as an NFL first-rounder that is beloved by the film community.
1.10 – Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
What has Pete Carrol done to us??? He can’t keep getting away with this, can he? The Seahawks take another stud running back in the second round of the NFL Draft just a year after spending the same capital on Kenneth Walker. I am a massive fan of Charbonnet but this landing spot crushes any consistent chance he can become a workhorse back. The most we can lean on is he will likely be used in the passing game and maintain stand-alone value from that perspective and serve as one of the better “handcuffs” in the league. You either go with Michael Mayer or Charbonnet in this range in my opinion.
1.11 – Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
The last part of the first round is a truly dreadful spot to be in. The first eight players are fairly consensus between Bijan, AR, Bryce, Gibbs, JSN, Stroud, Addison, and Quentin Johnston. In actual leagues, I will be doing everything I can to either trade into the top 6 or trade back and acquire assets.
As this is a tight end premium league I am going to go with Michael Mayer who has been the top tight end in this class since he was a freshman. Kincaid was picked a few spots earlier but he trails Mayer in every key predictive metric for fantasy except draft capital.
Mayer ranks first in the class for receiving yards per team pass attempt (2.66), college career fantasy points per game (13.8), weighted dominator (37.3%), dominator breakout year (Sophomore) and he is an early declare.
1.12 – Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Tim Riley – @FF_Reez
Not my highest-graded prospect, but in Superflex Formats, it’s hard to put a price on a starting QB. Levis may not start immediately, but I can guarantee he’ll get his shot sometime in the next year or two. The Titans needed a future quarterback, so there is a clear path to opportunity. He’s a creator in the pocket with a rocket launcher for an arm. The unpredictability of the QB position makes Levis a worthy dart throw at 1.12.
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