The College Football regular season has come to an end this week, and we are here to show you all of the breakout players that you need to be aware of both for devy leagues and in standard dynasty leagues. In devy, you will likely be able to acquire these players in your offseason drafts, and in dynasty leagues, be sure to keep your first-round picks in these players eligible years close to the vest.
Running Backs
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin, 2024 Eligible
The 6’2″ and 240 lbs. converted linebacker has achieved what no player has ever accomplished. Allen has a true breakout age of 17 years old, as he has completely taken over Wisconsin’s backfield after an injury to Chez Mellusi. However, injury or not, Allen was by far the most impressive player in the Wisconsin offense. The three-star linebacker reclassified from the class of 2022 into the 2021 class and hasn’t looked back.
Braelon Allen at age 17 and Derrick Henry at age 17
Analytically, Allen is a darling. He posted 1,109 rushing yards at an average of 7.1 yards per rush. Allen also found the endzone 12 times on his 157 rush attempts. He did not excel as a pass-catcher, logging only six catches for 37 yards and no scores. He handled the rock on 20% of Wisconsin’s offensive plays but found a way to make up 25% of their total yardage and 34% of their offensive touchdowns. This equates to a 27% adjusted dominator rating well above the 15% running back threshold. He also averaged 1.72 adjusted yards per team play which falls just short of the 2.0 yards threshold that we see elite NFL running backs, although he does have three more years of eligibility to surpass that threshold.
On film, Allen showed a nearly elite strength and speed, but the 17-year-old does not yet have the vision and decision-making to be an NFL-ready running back. This is something that we expect coming from a 17-year-old converted linebacker. Allen follows Melvin Gordon and Jonathan Taylor as the next great Wisconsin running back. In devy leagues, he likely won’t make it out of the first round in devy depleted drafts and should be drafted in the first three rounds of all startups.
Devon Achane, Texas A&M, 2023 Eligible
The track star had an excellent sophomore season and broke out despite playing alongside Isaiah Spiller, the RB1 in the 2022 NFL Draft class. The 5’9″ and 185 lbs. dynamo is electric. He rushed for 910 yards and nine touchdowns on just 130 carries. Achane also was a capable pass-catcher, racking up 261 yards and one touchdown on 24 catches. Overall he finished the year with 1,171 yards from scrimmage and 10 scores.
Analytically, he was a stud getting touches on 20% of Texas A&M’s offensive plays while accounting for 25% of the team yardage and 28% of the offensive touchdowns. This is good for a 25% adjusted dominator rating, which makes him eligible for a second-year out of high school breakout. He also posted an impressive 1.75 adjusted yards per team play and made up 10% of the team’s receiving production.
Achane is a player who is likely already owned in deep devy and Campus to Canton leagues but will be available in more shallow devy leagues. Choosing between Achane and Allen will be difficult as Allen translates to a better rusher in the NFL, but Achane offers receiving upside that is unmatched by Allen. The decision will likely come down to a team analysis for optimizing your championship window as Achane is available to enter the NFL a year earlier, but these two prospects can be considered in similar tiers.
The full list of Power Five running backs who achieved a first or second-year breakout are Braelon Allen, TreVeyon Henderson, Devon Achane, Sean Tucker, Deuce Vaughn, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Tank Bigsby. All of these players except Tucker were covered in the past two years of Devy Breakout articles.
Five Two Year Running Back Breakouts To Be Aware Of
DeWayne McBride, UAB, 2023 Eligible
He rushed for 1,185 yards and 12 touchdowns. Suitable for a 26% adjusted dominator and 1.98 adjusted yards per team play.
Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina, 2023 Eligible
He rushed for 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns. He also caught 22 passes for 257 yards and one touchdown. Good for a 26% adjusted dominator and 1.77 adjusted yards per team play.
Alton McCaskill, Houston, 2024 Eligible
He rushed for 844 yards and five touchdowns. He also caught 16 passes for 97 yards and one touchdown. Good for a 26% adjusted dominator and 1.54 adjusted yards per team play.
Frank Gore Jr., Southern Mississippi, 2024 Eligible
The son of the legendary running back rushed for 801 yards and five touchdowns. He also caught 20 passes for 155 yards. Good for a 28% adjusted dominator and 1.41 adjusted yards per team play.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs, North Carolina, 2023 Eligible
The former four-star receiver was rarely utilized as a freshman due to the presence of Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome at wide receiver, and the team depended on the two-headed backfield of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams for offensive production. In 2021 the offense transitioned to Downs, and he took full control of the opportunity racking up 1,273 yards and eight touchdowns on 98 catches. He accounted for 40% of the receiving yardage and 31% of the receiving scoring. More impressively, his receiving made up 20% of the team’s offensive production. He averaged 3.24 yards per team pass attempt and 1.70 adjusted yards per team play. Downs is on the smaller side at just 5’10” and 180 lbs. but he projects to be a productive slot wide receiver in the NFL.
Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh, 2023 Eligible
Pittsburgh has been a breeding ground for breakout receivers, dating from Tyler Boyd back to Larry Fitzgerald, and Jordan Addison is the next in line. The 6’0″ and 175 lbs. spark plug had an amazing sophomore season racking up 1,353 yards and 17 touchdowns on 85 catches. He accounted for 31% of the team’s receiving yards and 41% of the receiving scores. Good for 22% of the overall yardage and 28% of the offensive scoring. He averaged 2.78 yards per team pass attempt and 1.84 adjusted yards per team play.
Xavier Worthy, Texas, 2024 Eligible
Covered as an October breakout, Worthy finished the season with 63 catches for 998 yards and 12 touchdowns. His adjusted dominator rating of 20% is incredibly impressive for a true freshman. He also averaged 2.25 yards per team pass attempt and 1.55 adjusted yards per team play.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State, 2023 Eligible
Smith-Njigba took over the Ohio State receiver room, which includes two potential first-round picks in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft, making this the most impressive breakout on this list. He racked up 1,259 yards and six touchdowns in his sophomore season. Smith-Njigba accounted for 28% of Ohio State’s receiving yardage and 15% of the receiving scoring. He also made up 19% of the team’s total yards and 9% of the offensive scores. He averaged 2.81 yards per team pass attempt and 1.62 adjusted yards per team play. The former five-star and top-30 recruit is now in the conversation for 2023 WR1.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers, Georgia, 2024 Eligible
The true freshman took the Bulldogs offense by storm in 2021 as he racked up 652 yards and 10 touchdowns on 37 catches. He also added 55 yards and one score on the ground on just three carries. He accounted for 22% of the team’s passing yardage and 33% of the receiving scoring. His adjusted dominator rating of 24% is unreal for a true freshman tight end. He averaged 2.15 yards per team pass attempt and 1.23 adjusted yards per team play. Bowers joins 2023 eligible Michael Mayer as the only tight ends worth rostering in devy leagues.
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