I love when I can draw inspiration for an article from one of DFF’s followers. One such follower recently replied with this comment in response to our “Dynasty Would You Rather” series on X (formerly known as Twitter). The original post asked who you value higher in Dynasty: Drake London or A.J. Brown.
This was the reply:
*Click image to view full tweet*
The origin of the original question was derived from their values on Keep Trade Cut, which is a consensus community derived Dynasty value for players. Below is a snapshot showing the ranks and adjacent player values for London and Brown.
As you can see from the chart above, A.J. Brown is currently valued as the WR8 overall by the Dynasty community. London checks in at WR10 overall.
Why are these players so closely valued by the Dynasty community?
It comes down to narratives, facts and projections.
Narratives
We have people out in these Twitter streets touting how Drake London was such a huge winner in free agency with the signing of Kirk Cousins. The narrative continues that Desmond Ridder was one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. Compounding this among the Drake London bulls are the Arthur Smith haters. For those on X in the season you will already know that it was an “Arthur Smith is destroying my fantasy team” fest the entire year.
None of these are necessarily incorrect narratives. But they are narratives, nonetheless. The point here is narratives drive community value.
As a result, per Keep Trade Cut, Drake London’s community Dynasty value has risen from WR23 to WR10 in the last three months.
Meanwhile, on Broad Street, there are narratives that Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are feuding. The Eagles ended last season in a horrible funk, largely because they went away from A.J. Brown in those later weeks.
Facts
What do we know for facts in this Brown vs. London Dynasty valuation?
Let’s begin by looking at the Player Profiler chart for each.
London has checked in at WR42 and WR43 the last two years in Fantasy Points Per Game. Let me repeat that. London has checked in as the WR42 and WR43 the last two years in Fantasy Points Per Game.
Yikes.
And what was his Dynasty value again? WR10.
Now let’s do A.J. Brown.
Brown has finished as the WR8 each of the last two seasons. This aligns perfectly with where the Dynasty community has valued him.
Projections
Age is a definite legitimate factor in any Dynasty valuation. Drake London turns 23 years old on July 24th. A.J. Brown turns 27 on June 30th.
Two of the wide receivers who finished above Brown in fantasy points per game last year were Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen, both of whom are over 30 years old.
I am not counting all the wide receivers older than Drake London who finished above him in fantasy points per game because there are too many.
London is four years younger than A.J. Brown, however, so he gains a solid bit of value from this.
So, what about the accuracy? Ridder was not great at all. Per Player Profiler, his catchable target rate was 71.4%—42nd among QBs.
Now, how did that directly affect Drake London?
London ended with a 73.4% catchable target, 36th overall among wide receivers. This is not great, but it is not world-ending, especially for a player who is supposed to be one of the best contested catchers in the NFL.
This 73.4% catchable target rate was better than A.J. Brown’s 72.8% catchable target rate.
How about the “Arthur Smith kills Fantasy wide receivers” narrative? Well, despite having one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, the Falcons had 530 pass attempts. This was only slightly less than the 563 the Philadelphia Eagles had.
Summary
So, what does this all mean? How do I use this information for my Dynasty roster?
Far too often, I have seen Dynasty managers try to build teams by optimizing their Dynasty value.
“The goal in Dynasty is to score the most fantasy points and win titles. The goal is not to build the roster with the most Dynasty value.”
You have been hearing all off-season long across every news outlet that Drake London is the biggest free agent winner. So, naturally, the tendency when you hear this is to try to buy Drake London stock. This is no different than the stock market.
But now, Drake London is valued as the WR10. When financial stocks get to their peak, analysts downgrade their rating from buy to hold, or hold to sell.
That is where we are with Drake London right now.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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