PAST PRODUCTION
Through his first 25 career games, Montgomery had yet to break out as he was averaging just over 54 rushing YPG, 3.6 YPC, 15.9 receiving YPG, and 7.2 YPR. In his last six games, he’s averaging an astonishing 99.7 rushing YPG, 5.2 YPC, 4.0 YPR, and 37.7 YPR. His late-season push last season moved him up to the RB4 spot in PPR leagues as he served as the RB1 during the last six weeks of the 2020 season.
Montgomery was the focal point in Chicago’s offense late last season as the team found its way into the final playoff spot (7th seed). Through his first two seasons, he has produced 14 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns. Although those numbers aren’t eye-popping, he is set to break through and push those numbers up in a dramatic fashion, making him an intriguing dynasty prospect for your fantasy team(s).
2021 OUTLOOK
As Chicago looks to figure out the passing game for the first time EVER, HC Matt Nagy has already indicated that Montgomery will have a huge workload for this season. He stated that he wants Montgomery to become the centerpiece for the Bears’ offense. Nagy also stated that “Montgomery is capable of carrying the ball 20 times per game.” In his hot stretch late last season (final six games), he averaged just under that at 19.3 carries per game.
With Tarik Cohen recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in Week 4 of last season, the third-year pro could be heavily involved in the receiving game once again this season. And for those of you that think Damien Williams (2019 Super Bowl hero) will cut into his touches, you might be right. But Montgomery is the best player in Chicago’s offense, outside of Allen Robinson, and he should easily top 300 touches this season.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
With two seasons under his belt, the 24-year-old back is primed to keep his workhorse role in this offense for at least two more seasons. Once his rookie contract expires, it will be tough for him to hold onto that role. You have to remember, he’s one of the hardest runners in the league. He finished third in the league in broken tackles, as a rusher, with 29 during his rookie season. Last year he had 29. He also broke six tackles as a receiver in 2019 and 11 in 2020.
Although he avoided a scary groin injury last offseason, his potential injury risk is a little high. He has yet to run behind an above-average offensive line and going into this season, PFF has the Bears’ O-Line ranked 28th in all of football. The injuries have piled up so much this offseason that they had to go out and sign 39-year-old OT Jason Peters. This is troubling news for an RB that is projected to receive at least 270 carries this season. The volume is there, but the potential risk of injury is troublesome.
The third-year pro’s ADP currently stands as the RB20, according to Sleeper, and he is projected to go 39th overall in most drafts (3.03). This seems relatively low for a player who finished as the RB4 last season, and the RB1 from Weeks 12-17. If you can draft him at his current ADP, you should receive exceptional value for your pick. With a high ceiling for this season, he could turn into one of the best value picks for you in your draft(s). If it were up to me, I would be willing to draft Montgomery in the late second round in any draft format. He has the potential to finish top-10 amongst RBs this season, and his 2020 finish showcases that he has the ability and opportunity to do so.
FILM STUDY
Montgomery is an above-average inside-zone runner. He leans in heavily, showcasing great counterbalance, allowing him to force a ton of broken tackles with his brute strength. He also shows great vision inside the hashes, accelerating hard when holes open up. Although he doesn’t possess great top speed, he can break off for big runs at any moment when given the opportunity.
Chicago doesn’t use him as an outside-zone rusher, as he doesn’t show great skill rushing outside the box. Nearly all of his big plays come from attacking the middle of the field, and that also has to deal with Chicago’s lack of talent at the two OT positions. As a pass-catcher, he’s very gifted, and we saw that even when Tarik Cohen was used predominantly as the pass-catching back in Chicago’s offense. Montgomery shows great hands and exceptional awareness with the ball in open space. If given the opportunity, he could serve as a top-10 dual-threat running back in this league for years to come.
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