Chris Herndon: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Past Production

Here are Chris Herndon’s full NFL stats.

The Jets selected Herndon out of Miami in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. At the time, the Jets had recently selected Sam Darnold as their new franchise quarterback. Darnold had relatively few reliable weapons, especially at tight end.

Therefore, Herndon jumped into the offense as a starter almost from the beginning of his rookie year. Head coach Todd Bowles employed a base 11 personnel offense, with Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse as their three receivers. However, Herndon played a critical role as one of their underneath targets, finishing behind the three receivers in targets as the fourth target on the team.

Herndon likely saw more action due to Bilal Powell’s injury struggles. Powell had served as the Jets’ third-down back for years, but he missed nine games in 2018. Therefore, Herndon stepped into that target vacuum, and he impressed. Most rookie tight ends provide no fantasy value whatsoever. Considering that Herndon was a fourth-round pick, I was extremely impressed with his rookie year. I ranked Herndon as a low-end dynasty TE1 after 2018.

Unfortunately, everything went wrong for Herndon in 2019. First, the Jets replaced Bowles with Adam Gase, who is one of the worst head coaches in NFL history. While some might blame Gase for all the Jets’ struggles, Herndon managed to wreck his own season without Gase’s help.

Herndon first served a four-game suspension to begin the 2019 season for violations of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. Once he returned, he almost immediately suffered a hamstring injury, forcing him to miss additional time. Herndon managed to get back on the field for one game, but he then injured his ribs. The rib injury forced him onto the injured reserve list, and 2019 became a lost season.

2020 Performance and Outlook

Going into 2020, the Jets wanted to revive Herndon’s role in the offense, especially since they continued to lack alternative weapons. Through four games, Herndon is third on the team in targets behind Jamison Crowder and Chris Hogan, but the Jets’ offense has been abysmal. Herndon only has volume, and it’s from the worst offense in the NFL.

Therefore, Herndon has zero 2020 value in fantasy leagues. With the COVID-19 pandemic, I don’t expect the Jets to fire Gase mid-season and attempt to integrate a new coaching staff. That’s going to be almost impossible given the protocols and rules. So, Herndon is worthless to fantasy owners looking for any reliable production.

Dynasty Analysis

However, I haven’t entirely quit on Herndon in dynasty leagues. He turns 25 years old in February 2021, which is when a tight end enters his prime. By then, the Jets will have likely fired Gase, and they may have a top-3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. If the Jets add Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields to their roster, Herndon’s value would immediately spike.

Right now, I think you can acquire Herndon for a third-round rookie pick and perhaps two thirds in TE premium leagues. I would love to make that move because Herndon is a talented player wasting away on a putrid offense with a horrific coaching staff. Talent trumps all in dynasty leagues, so take advantage of this buying opportunity and add Herndon to your dynasty rosters.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.