At Dynasty Football Factory, we have a motto: “Building Dynasty Champions Since 2015.” So now you have gotten your team into a position to make a run at a title. What’s next? Your league-mates are likely mortgaging their future, acquiring aging veterans for a run at a title this year. Is that the best strategy?
We can’t all have a bounty of draft picks available for trade. So, how do we get a Louis Vuitton impact on a Dollar Store budget? This mini-series is intended to highlight players with favorable matchups for your Fantasy playoffs in Week 15, 16, and 17 that you may be able to afford. This is an unspoken edge you can get on your league-mates as, more often than not, contenders will just be looking to acquire old players with a lofty fantasy point per game. Hopefully, you are not in a Dynasty league with a trade deadline. If you are, you should get that fixed with your commissioner for future years.
I subscribe more to the philosophy of giving yourself more kicks at the league championship can. In that sense, I am less likely than others to mortgage my future for one run at a title. Per studies, the best Fantasy teams still only have about a 40% chance to win a title if they make the playoffs, and that assumes they get a bye. Without a bye, even the best teams still only have about a 25% chance of winning.
I will be using Keep Trade Cut for the value of these players. Individual player metrics will be obtained from Player Profiler, while Team Fantasy Points Against Statistics will be taken from Yahoo. To establish parameters, these will all be players you can get for less than a first-round pick.
Each article will highlight one of the standard Fantasy positions: quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and tight end. We will begin with running back.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett
Age: 31
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 13.2 (WR 28)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.8 (WR 24)
Target Share: 22.8 (WR 26)
Yards Per Route Run: 1.69 (WR 48)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: WR 49
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2874
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Late 2nd to Early 3rd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Philadelphia (1)
Week 16: Tennessee (6)
Week 17: Pittsburgh (10)
Summary:
Lockett has an impressive streak of five straight WR 2 or better (Top 24) Fantasy points per game seasons. He currently sits at WR28 on the season. He has been a victim of sub-par QB play, added target competition, and a tough pass defense schedule to date. The last part of this finally lightens up for the playoffs with an incredible slate of games for a Fantasy wide receiver. This also holds true for D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but since they both will cost first-round Dynasty draft capital, they likely aren’t acquirable on a tight budget.
Deebo Samuel
Age: 27
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 12.1 (WR 34)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.9 (WR 50)
Target Share: 20.1 (WR 42)
Yards Per Route Run: 2.22 (WR 21)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: WR 27
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 4289
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Early 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Arizona (12)
Week 16: Baltimore (26)
Week 17: Washington (3)
Summary:
San Francisco has a delicious matchup for most fantasy leagues’ championship week, Week 17 vs. the Washington Commanders. Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all players who could go off that week. Deebo is the cheapest, as he has had a bit of a down year, averaging only 12.1 FPPG. Deebo is just two years removed from being the WR 3 overall in FPPG averaging 21.2. He has suffered through injuries this year but is healthy now.
Jayden Reed
Age: 23
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 11.7 (WR37)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.5 (WR 54)
Target Share: 15.5% (WR 59)
Yards Per Route Run: 1.83 (WR 36)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: WR 33
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3773
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Tampa Bay (4)
Week 16: Carolina (28)
Week 17: Minnesota (8)
Summary:
Jayden Reed has caught fire of late with three straight games of 15 fantasy points or more. Green Bay faces two top 10 teams in Fantasy Points Against for the wide receiver position in the Fantasy playoffs: Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Reed was a 2nd round pick this past draft, so Green Bay has high expectations for him. Draft capital typically translates to usage, which Reed is starting to see more of. He just matched his highest target total of the season last week with 8.
Jerry Jeudy
Age: 24
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 13.2 (WR 28)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.9 (WR 51)
Target Share: 20.7% (WR 38)
Yards Per Route Run: 1.61 (WR 52)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: WR 45
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3149
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Detroit (13)
Week 16: New England (11)
Week 17: Los Angeles Chargers (2)
Summary:
Jerry Jeudy is the cheapest he has ever been right now. Will he ever be an elite WR 1 type? No. But he is amazingly still only 24 years old and just finished as the WR 19 overall in FPPG last year. Courtland Sutton has taken some of the shine off Jeudy this year, but Jeudy still boasts a lofty 33% air yards share. Sutton has simply been the benefit of touchdown luck, ranking 2nd in the league with eight. This is sure to regress.
Since Week 5, the Broncos have faced a gauntlet of tremendous pass defenses. In Yahoo Fantasy Points against Rank by Position, the teams are:
New York Jets (32)
Kansas City (29)
Green Bay (27)
Kansas City (29)
Buffalo (25)
Minnesota (8)
Cleveland (30)
Now compare that gauntlet to their weeks 15 to 17:
Detroit (13)
New England (11)
Los Angeles Chargers (2)
The beauty of investing in Jeudy now is it’s for the present and the future.
Rashid Shaheed
Age: 25
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 10.9 (WR 44)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.0 (WR 57)
Target Share: 13.8% (WR 64)
Yards Per Route Run: 1.74 (WR 41)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: WR 52
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2778
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: New York Giants (5)
Week 16: Los Angeles Rams (20)
Week 17: Tampa Bay (4)
Summary:
Rashid Shaheed has been waiting to break out for a year now. He showed his efficiency last year in limited usage with a 2.70 yards per route run, ranking fifth overall among wide receivers. The key here is target hog Michael Thomas just went on injured reserve. In the first game without Thomas, Shaheed drew a season-high nine targets. Like Jeudy, Shaheed is still young at just 25 years of age, so this purchase would not simply be a short-term patch.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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