College Football Factory

CFF Impact: 2018 Coaching Changes

Understanding the impact of coaching changes in college football is one of the most integral pieces of the puzzle to becoming a winning player. It is relevant in the NFL as well, but nowhere near the degree that it is in the college game. For example, in the 2017 season, the New England Patriots threw the ball more than any other team in the league, at 38.3 times per game. The Chicago Bears threw it the least out of any team, at 29.6 times per game. The average NFL team threw the ball 34 times per game. Jeff Fisher managed to make Todd Gurley look like a scrub while Sean McVay brought out the gold in him, and he was a league-winner the following season. Coaching matters. Shifting gears to look at college football, Washington State threw the ball 55.4 times per game last season. That was the most of any team in college football. Army, on the other hand, threw the ball the least out of any team, at 5.2 times per game. The average team threw it 32 times per game. The rushing attempts are equally as divisive. The gulf between the team with the most and least rushing attempts per game represents a gap in more than 40 attempts per game. I’m going to endeavor to identify which coaching changes and their schemes will have the most significant impact on the 2018 CFF season.

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Arkansas Razorbacks:

Bret Bielema is out and Chad Morris is in. Bielema recruited massive players on the offensive line and preferred to play power football. His roots were at Wisconsin and he wanted to play a similar style but it never worked out for him at Arkansas. Chad Morris arrives after fruitful stints at both Clemson and SMU. He runs a balanced attack but this is a definite upgrade in relevance for the quarterback and wide receivers. The Hogs haven’t had a 1,000-yard wide receiver in the past five seasons. Good news, there is the potential for massive production from one, possibly two, receivers each season. Most recently, Courtland Sutton had 49-862-9 (Freshman), 76-1246-10 (Sophomore), and 68-1085-12 (Junior). Last season, Trey Quinn had 114-1236-14. Morris’ offenses have featured a 1,000-yard receiver for each of the past seven seasons. His running backs traditionally carry value as well. Dating back to the 2011 seasons, his top two backs have put up:

Clemson RB (Dual Threat QBs)

2011: 223-1178-11 & 57-343-3

2012: 212-1081-8 & 83-450-5

2013: 189-1025-5 & 48-246-2

2014: 161-769-4 & 66-250-3

SMU RB (Dual Threat QB in 2015, Pro Style QB in 2016 & 2017)

2015: 151-632-10 & 62-326-2

2016: 202-1036-6 & 154-651-4

2017: 182-1075-9 & 131-543-11

The depth chart is murky right now (July 2018) but monitoring the waiver wire and/or taking a shot on their RB (Devwah Whaley or Chase Hayden) or outside WR (La’Michael Pettway, Mike Woods, Chase Harrell) late in drafts this year could be a wise decision.

Florida Gators:

There have been few CFF offenses that have been more disappointing in recent years than Florida’s. The good news is that is likely to change. Dan Mullen’s hiring represents life and potential for this esteemed program. The most exciting part of Mullen’s offense is his quarterback. Going back to his final season at the Swamp, he led an offense that saw Tim Tebow throw for 30 TD and rush for 12 more. He took over a Mississippi State program that was in a state of despair, but it took him several years to get them going. I don’t think the less than ideal state of the Florida program can even be compared to what he had to deal with in Starkville. 2009-2012 were forgettable years for him at QB. In fact, aside from five performances in that span, four from RBs and one from a WR, we can call those lost years, “Fruit of the Croom.” Dak Prescott arrived on the scene in 2013 and only threw for 10 TDs but he ran for 134-829-13 in 11 games. 2014 was even better as he ran for 210-986-14 and threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 27 TDs (13 games). 2015 was more of the same. He threw for 29 TDs, nearly 3,800 yards and ran for 588 yards and 10 TDs (13 games). Nick Fitzgerald ran for nearly 2,500 yards, scored 30 TDs, threw for more than 4,000 yards and 36 TDs in two combined seasons. The quarterback room isn’t currently in great shape but I do think that there will be an opportunity for more relevance than what we saw in the previous Florida regime. Here are a look at how Mullen’s RB1 has fared over the years:

(Att-Yards-TD)

Florida RB

2005: 130-621-7

2006: 143-699-6

2007: 104-580-6

2008: 84-652-4

Mississippi State RB

2009: 257-1391-12

2010: 187-981-20

2011: 193-1189-10

2012: 205-1024-8

2013: 137-542-2

2014: 190-1203-11

2015: 92-413-0

2016: 137-720-4

2017: 236-1107-6

There are some intriguing lines in there and he will have plenty of options to work with in 2018. Much like the running backs, the wide receivers have a wide range of outcomes. Also like the running backs, the Gators will have plenty of talented pass catchers in 2018 and beyond. The player that may provide the most intrigue on the roster this year is former QB turned WR, Kadarius Toney. There is a chance that he could be used in a comparable role to another former Mullen WR, Percy Harvin. In 2007, he had 142-1622-10 from scrimmage and 110-1304-17 from scrimmage the following year. Those would present the most optimistic, best case scenarios for Toney but one worth considering when constructing a roster. Keeping an eye on the statuses of transfer WRs Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes is a worthwhile endeavor. If neither of them can go, the talented Tyrie Cleveland may finally take the step forward that Gator fans have been hoping for.

Houston:

Major Applewhite made an incredible hire (X’s and O’s alone) bringing in Kendal Briles. Briles has a rich history of orchestrating top offenses.

(Comp-Att-Yards-TD-INT, Rushing Att-Yards-TD)

Baylor QB

2012: 286-464-4309-33-13, 139-568-10

2013: 250-403-4200-32-3, 94-209-14

2014: 270-428-3855-29-7, 84-101-6

2015: 194-309-3369-41-8, 85-472-8

2016: 268-474-3652-33-15, 119-480-9

FAU QB

2017: 228-353-2835-19-6, 109-453-10

Baylor RB

2012: 131-1012-7 & 179-889-15 (10 combined catches)

2013: 158-1177-11 & 128-881-8 & 120-509-7 (5 combined catches)

2014: 251-1252-16 & 100-524-6 & 80-383-8 (11 combined catches)

2015: 196-1329-10 & 136-1000-8 & 121-578-9 (15 combined catches)

2016: 185-1048-11 & 138-751-2 & 119-623-3 (7 combined catches)

FAU RB

2017: 301-1920-32 (19-198-1) & 112-740-5 (0-0-0)

(Catches-Yards-TD)

Baylor WR

2012: 97-1832-12 & 53-957-9

2013: 71-1339-13 & 38-867-8 & 47-733-8

2014: 64-1119-11 & 58-1030-8 & 60-830-6

2015: 74-1363-20 & 50-868-6 & 38-758-8

2016: 87-1215-13 & 63-809-8

FAU WR

2017: 56-657-6

The first thing that sticks out to me about the quarterbacks is how well they do as runners. Ten rushing touchdowns is the standard. What’s even more exciting? None of those guys are particularly dynamic athletes. D’Eriq King has a real shot at scoring 15+ times on the ground this year. Briles’ offense supports a 1,000 yard rusher every year. There is the potential that both Terence Williams and Mulbah Car could be fantasy relevant this season. All we have is speculation at this point, and I doubt anything is going to be confirmed by the staff in the coming month. I’m trying to draft King, Car, and Williams in all of my leagues. There is a historical floor of 56-657-6 for the WR1 on his teams. The ceiling is a tasty 97-1832-12. Unfortunately, it’s guesswork at this stage while trying to decipher who the WR1 will be for the Cougars this year. Courtney Lark gets my vote, if I must opine.

Kent State Golden Flashes:

From KentStateSports.com, “Lewis brings an extensive coaching résumé to Kent State and has been one of the fastest-rising coaches in the nation over the last decade. He comes to the Kent State Golden Flashes after serving as the co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach under Dino Babers at Syracuse University. Lewis’ background stretches from his four-year playing career at the University of Wisconsin under Barry Alvarez, to winning the 2015 Mid-American Conference (MAC) Championship as the co-offensive coordinator at Bowling Green State University. That ascension has led Lewis to becoming the youngest Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) head coach in the nation at the age of 31. That distinction was previously held by the University of Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley at age 34.  Lewis has spent his last six seasons alongside head coach Babers at Syracuse (2016-17), Bowling Green (2014-15) and Eastern Illinois University (2012-13).”

The intrigue, for me, is his background with Dino Babers. This offense has been effective in the MAC in the recent past and there is a chance that it will be again in near-ish future. Let’s take a look at what we can expect from his scheme. If you go back and look at Babers’/Lewis’ best offenses, they’ve all had a running back that was fantasy relevant. In two seasons at Eastern Illinois, their backs rushed for 217-1563-15 (14 games), 217-1003-10 (12 games), 232-1153-12 (12 games). The backs are used in the passing game as well as those three caught between 18-31 balls in those seasons. Jump ahead to two seasons at Bowling Green and their lead backs rushed for 223-1324-15 (14 games) and 180-985-12 (12 games). The backs have been disappointing at Syracuse and fantasy irrelevant. Let’s take a look at their quarterbacks:

Eastern Illinois QB

2012: 331-540-3823-31-15, 83-221-2

2013: 375-568-5050-53-9, 70-209-4

Bowling Green QB

2014: 280-483-3173-15-12, 67-136-2

2015: 383-569-4946-46-8, 113-159-4

Syracuse QB

2016: 312-490-3622-23-11, 169-340-8

2017: 316-542-3484-19-16, 179-693-9

This system isn’t limited to top CFF quarterback options. How bout the pass catchers they churn out?

Eastern Illinois WR

2012: 136-1664-12 & 53-888-11

2013: 123-1544-19 & 85-1305-13

Bowling Green WR

2014: 73-1093-7 & 64-758-3

2015: 85-1544-16 & 94-1033-10 & 72-954-6

Syracuse WR

2016: 94-1482-14 & 90-822-6

2017: 105-1347-7 & 89-904-4

Kent State was one of the worst offenses in college football last season, but there is potential with Auburn QB transfer, Woody Barrett, and returning RB, Justin Rankin. I’m going to be keeping an eye on their incoming freshmen WR recruits, Lon’Kevious ‘Keke’ McFadden and Isaiah McKoy.

Marshall Thundering Herd:

Marshall hired Tim Cramsey as their new offensive coordinator. He has coached at a number of different places and has implemented a variety of offensive approaches, based on his personnel. It is my belief that he was hired to bring in the offense that he ran at SHSU. If he elects to go with a vastly different approach, then all bets are off in terms of forecasting CFF relevancy.

Montana State QB

2013: 175-265-2087-8-4, 83-248-4

2014: 171-263-2559-18-6, 169-946-13

2015: 216-344-3025-25-10, 158-797-11

Nevada QB

2016: 209-346-2462-17-9, 102-312-5

Sam Houston State QB

2017: 335-579-5003-45-16, 27–6-3

Montana State RB

2013: 217-1088-18 & 104-609-6 (49 combined catches)

2014: 90-606-4 & 116-496-12 & 97-477-8 (35 combined catches)

2015: 154-831-12

Nevada RB

2016: 260-1336-12 (37-381-3)

Sam Houston State RB

2017: 186-1110-14 & 114-702-3 (38 combined catches)

Montana State WR

2013: 64-969-3

2014: 45-445-0

2015: 42-562-8 & 37-632-9

Nevada WR

2016: 53-686-9

Sam Houston State WR

2017: 72-1648-14 & 78-1206-17 & 76-993-7

In 2018, Cramsey will have the trifecta working for him. He rates to have a quality quarterback, two solid running backs, and several wide receivers that all bring their own unique flavors to the party. QB Alex Thomson and WR Tyre Brady have been pretty popular in drafts that I’ve participated in this summer. The player that hasn’t, but is worth a late round pick, is slot WR, Marcel Williams. This SHSU offense traditionally runs through their slot receiver (See Brown, AJ at Ole Miss 2017) and while Williams is no match for Brady from a physicality standpoint (See Brown, AJ and Metcalf, D.K.), he may be the recipient of a bunch of targets. I can talk myself into several players on this potentially potent offense in 2018.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:

Few teams get to go from terrific offensive mind to terrific offensive mind. That is the case for Mississippi State. Let’s start with Joe Moorhead’s running backs over the years:

Fordham RB

2012: 300-1699-13 (48-313-2)

2013: 307-1561-7 (41-276-2)

2014: 294-1902-23 (19-121-1)

2015: 251-1705-20 (31-383-5)

Penn State RB

2016: 272-1496-18 (28-402-4)

2017: 217-1271-18 (54-632-3)

Here’s a snapshot of the quarterbacks:

Fordham QB

2012: Trash

2013: 353-480-4380-35-7, 154-701-9

2014: 344-528-4536-38-12, 91-161-1

2015: 229-342-3183-32-10, 158-590-1

Penn State QB

2016: 224-387-3614-29-8, 146-365-7

2017: 284-427-3570-28-10 ,144-491-11

The wide receivers:

Fordham WR

2012: 72-1042-7

2013: 93-1646-14 & 89-1094-14 & 85-1154-5

2014: 89-1247-11 & 78-1202-12

2015: 36-466-5 & 34-463-6 (TE led in receptions this year)

Penn State WR

2016: 59-982-11

2017: 53-857-9

Finally, his ridiculously productive tight ends:

Fordham TE

2012: 45-388-0

2013: 66-588-2

2014: 43-386-6

2015: 37-492-7

Penn State TE

2016: 48-679-5

2017: 57-563-9

As you can see, there is a lot of potential with every CFF position group. With the way the roster is currently constructed, I feel most optimistic in the quarterbacks (Nick Fitzgerald & Keytaon Thompson – I recommend handcuffing them if you take Fitzy early) and running backs (Aeris Williams & Kylin Hill –  I recommend handcuffing them in back-to-back picks) with a lot of potential in a few WRs (Stephen Guidry, Austin Williams, Devonta Jason) and a TE. Junior TE Farrod Green has been one of my favorite players on this offense over the past couple of years but he hasn’t had much opportunity. That looks like it’s about to change, making him a great late round option with a massively high ceiling.

Nebraska Cornhuskers:

Nebraska made a big splash with their hire of Scott Frost. Frost engineered one of the most impressive turnarounds of any team in the past few years at UCF. Before that, he was helping Marcus Mariota compile one of the better single seasons for a quarterback of this millenia. Let’s take a quick look at how his offenses have supported every position.

Frost has worked with a couple of excellent college quarterbacks in Mariota and Milton. The 2016 season with Milton was a dud, but his other three seasons as an OC/HC in recent years have been terrific. It’s been awhile since Nebraska had a QB that’s relevant in CFF, that should change over the next few seasons.

Oregon QB

2014: 304-445-4454-42-4, 135-770-15

2015: 229-358-3223-31-10, 93-289-5

UCF QB

2016: 230-418-2493-13-9, 137-283-5

2017: 265-395-4037-37-9, 106-613-8

Royce Freeman was a hoss, eh? If I had to guess, things at Nebraska could look more like committee work as they were at UCF. There currently isn’t a Freeman-type-player on the Huskers’ roster, so I think the backs may not be all that valuable, as 18 rushing TDs on less than 200 carries is nearly impossible to sustain. We want volume with running backs and I’m not sure we will get it early on.

Oregon RB

2014: 252-1365-18 (16-158-1)

2015 283-1836-17 (26-348-2)

UCF RB

2016: 139-495-4 (17-73-0) & 120-463-8 (11-78-1)

2017: 122-790-10 (25-169-1) & 69-235-8 (0-0-0)

I’m a bit more optimistic about the pass-catchers for Nebraska. There is already plenty of talent in their WR room and Frost’s offense has shown it can support one or two wide receivers per season. Morgan, Spielman, and Lindsey all provide some appeal this fall.

Oregon

2014: 74-1003-6

2015 63-804-10 & 32-609-6

UCF

2016: 57-853-5

2017: 59-1171-13 & 46-695-8

I thought after the season that Jordan Akins had in 2017 that there would be a more appealing history of relevant fantasy TEs. There really hasn’t been. Good news, I can’t even name a TE on Nebraska’s roster so I’m probably not going to have to pay the piper.

Oregon

2014: 25-420-6

2015: 16-229-1

UCF

2016: 23-347-2

2017: 32-515-4

I like the hire of Frost. That being said, it may take several years before this offense resembles anything like what he ran at Oregon or UCF’s in 2017. I think that the 2018 version may most closely resemble the 2016 UCF offense. If I were picking a player to target, it would be WR Stanley Morgan, Jr. or QB Adrian Martinez in dynasty formats.

Oregon State Beavers:

I will be brief (J/K I’m rarely brief) here. Oregon State has supported a fantasy relevant running back for the past two seasons. That shouldn’t change in 2018. In 2016, Ryan Nall had 147-951-13 (22-214-2 rec) and he had 165-810-8 (27-240-2 rec). That isn’t great volume but it does represent relevance. The hire of Jonathan Smith and Brian Lindgren have me feeling even more optimistic about what this team can support this season. Let’s take a look at the recent RB histories of both coaches.

Jonathan Smith RB (Washington OC, 2014-2017)

2014: 132-697-9 (15-91-0) & 138-565-1 (9-35-0)

2015: 227-1302-14 (6-19-0)

2016: 237-1373-10 (19-137-1) & 114-852-7 (5-31-0)

2017: 222-1380-21 (19-232-3)

Brian Lindgren RB (SJSU OC 2012, Colorado OC 2013-2017)

2012: 207-1025-11 (28-156-0)

2013: 147-562-3 (8-71-0) & 103-535-6 (11-127-1)

2014: 85-448-4 & 94-403-3 & 81-398-3 & 79-391-0 (61 combined catches)

2015: 140-653-6 (26-211-1)

2016: 244-1252-16 (53-494-1)

2017: 301-1474-14 (23-257-1)

When examining the current state of the OSU roster, I believe that JR Artavis Pierce is in line for 200+ touches. He is a very gifted pass catcher and based on both Smith’s and Lindgren’s histories, he is a valuable late round pick up this season.

The pass catchers also have some exciting potential in this offense. Let’s take another look at how WRs have fared under both of these guys:

Jonathan Smith WR (Washington OC, 2014-2017)

2014: 60-617-4

2015: 58-692-2

2016: 81-1150-17 & 53-822-15

2017: 63-761-7

Brian Lindgren WR (SJSU OC 2012, Colorado OC 2013-2017)

2012: 82-1307-9 & 54-691-11

2013: 83-1343-10 & 55-650-4

2014: 106-1198-12 & 50-486-4

2015: 89-1053-4 & 42-598-4

2016: 56-883-9 & 69-787-5

2017: 62-693-5 & 46-623-4

There are some really attractive lines in there. As far as determining who will be the WR1 this year, that’s pretty simple. Isaiah Hodgins is one of the highest rated recruits in program history. He’s got the size and athleticism to be a red zone threat. He’s also shockingly cheap. This offense doesn’t excite many right now, but I’m rostering Pierce, Hodgins, and Togiai (TE) in as many leagues as I can. The prospective juice is worth the squeeze.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights:

John McNulty makes his triumphant return to Piscataway. He was the former OC in 2007 & 2008. Let’s get into what this offense looked like last team he was the maestro:

Rutgers QB

2007: 203-349-3147-20-13

2008: 243-396-3418-25-13

Rutgers RB

2007: 380-2012-24 (25-239-1) (Ray Rice)

2008: 142-554-5 (6-55-0) & 100-516-6 (0-0-0)

Rutgers WR

2007: 65-1100-7 & 62-1232-8

2008: 87-1371-7 & 40-494-5

Rutgers TE

2007: 23-241-2

2008: 16-227-3

Well, well, well. McNulty represents one of the most appealing hires in the country. The talent level isn’t where it was a decade ago, but there are some appealing pieces with QB Art Sitkowski, WR Bo Melton, and TE Travis Vokolek. Melton is the guy that I’m banking on in this offense and have tried to roster him in the majority of my leagues, especially dynasty formats. He’s nearly free, steps into a system that supports a proven top tier CFF WR, and dominated this spring.

Det. James ‘Jimmy’ McNulty: If Snotboogie always stole the money, why’d you let him play?

Snotboogie’s Friend: Got to. It’s America, man.

Be like Snotboogie.

South Alabama Jaguars:

Joey Jones is out and Steve Campbell is in. On the surface, doesn’t seem like it’s going to have a big CFF impact. Not so fast, my friend! Kenny Edenfield was called in from Troy, where he was their offensive coordinator since 2010. According to TroyTrojans.com, “Troy has ranked in the top 17 in the country in total offense twice during his tenure as the offensive coordinator and in the top 27 in five of his nine seasons on the Troy staff. The Trojans have led the Sun Belt Conference in passing yards in four of the last eight seasons and have ranked 8th, 13th, 16th and 11th nationally. During his time as the offensive coordinator, Troy players have set single-season school records in passing attempts (twice), passing completions, completion percentage, receptions and receptions/game. Trojans players have also posted top three single-season totals in passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing yards per game, receiving yards, total offense and all-purpose yards.” The majority of Edenfield’s quarterbacks were pocket passers. However, Deon Anthony was a dual-threat that got limited work in 2012 & 2013. He managed to put up 78-112-836-9-3 as a passer in 2012 and added 82-390-8. That season, he got the keys to the car for one full game and put up 29-41-245-3-1 passing and added 19-115-2 on the ground. That’ll play. For the first time since he had Anthony on the roster, he will have a true dual-threat quarterback in Cephus Johnson. The redshirt freshman had a terrific spring scrimmage as he went 9-12-126-2-0 and it was a format that didn’t allow him to showcase his running ability. The new staff has remarked they plan to run some option with Johnson. Edenfield’s offenses have seen a receiver that has made 60+ catches in six of the last eight seasons as a coordinator. There weren’t many high volume running backs in his tenure (116, 123, 194, 134, 111, 201, 279, 154 were top carriers’ attempts) but there is value that can be had in a pass catcher and a receiver or two. I’m looking to add QB Cephus Johnson in dynasty formats and Jamarius Way is a WR that I like for the 2018 season.

South Carolina Gamecocks:

Forgive me if I’d said this previously: South Carolina’s offensive hires this off-season have been the most under reported and potentially significant of any teams this year. Bryan McClendon is the new offensive coordinator, but it is the quarterbacks coach whose imprint I’m most excited about on this offense. Dan Werner coordinated the high powered offenses at Ole Miss from 2011-2016. He utilizes RPOs, high tempo, and gets the ball to his playmakers in a variety of ways. I want to highlight his offenses from 2013-2016 because I feel they best represent the talent that’s currently on South Carolina’s roster and the most likely ranges out outcomes.

Ole Miss QB

2013: 306-478-3640-24-10, 191-665-10

2014: 229-381-3194-22-14, 121-199-5

2015: 298-458-4042-31-13, 107-500-10

2016: 277-460-3638-25-11, 122-501-5

Ole Miss RB

2013: 96-564-3 & 112-522-6

2014: 106-586-5

2015: 142-730-5

2016: 164-826-6

Ole Miss WR

2013: 59-938-6 & 72-608-5

2014: 39-696-6 & 48-632-5 & 41-558-6

2015: 82-1153-11 & 37-644-4 & 38-604-7 & 36-503-5

2016: 46-716-6 & 49-543-3

Ole Miss TE

2013: 21-268-3

2014: 38-662-2

2015: 38-464-2

2016: 65-926-8

South Carolina’s 2017 numbers were forgettable. They start the year with an NFL QB and the best WR duo in college football. Now the scheme and tempo will support the talent and I believe that all three of Jake Bentley, Bryan Edwards, and Deebo Samuel will represent solid values in drafts. Bentley, in particular, represents a terrific depth option and is extremely affordable.

Texas A&M Aggies:

There is only one position that I want to focus on with this change. This is how running backs have fared under Jimbo Fisher’s guidance in Tallahassee:

FSU RB

2013: 173-1016-14 & 91-730-11 & 81-563-8 (33 combined catches)

2014: 170-1008-8 (22-203-0) & 150-689-11 (29-265-1)

2015: 229-1691-19 (24-244-1) & 63-314-5 (6-62-0)

2016: 288-1765-19 (33-488-1) & 61-350-4 (4-21-0)

2017: 194-1025-7 (16-116-1) & 132-735-7 (21-171-0)

Those numbers paint a picture that describes a very attractive floor and ceiling. Trayveon Williams should be the 2018 beneficiary and a near lock to get 200+ touches. The schedule is daunting but Williams is likely to shoulder a workhorse load.

UCLA Bruins:

Few teams were worse at running the ball and defending the run than UCLA in recent years. The former will be a problem if that continues in year one under Chip Kelly. I’m going to take a look at how his offenses fared at Oregon from 2007-2012.

Oregon QB

2007: 172-254-2136-20-4, 105-583-9

2008: 136-239-1744-13-5, 127-718-10

2009: 177-305-2147-15-6, 121-668-13

2010: 221-360-2863-30-9, 93-486-5

2011: 211-339-2761-33-7, 56-206-3

2012: 230-336-2677-32-6, 106-752-5

Oregon RB

2007: 280-1722-11 (22-145-2)

2008: 168-1201-13 & 138-1003-17 (10 combined catches)

2009: 230-1546-14 (17-168-0)

2010: 294-1751-21 (17-208-3)

2011: 247-1805-18 (17-210-1) & 152-939-11 (17-184-3) & 55-595-7 (46-605-9)

2012: 279-1767-21 (20-256-2) & 92-701-11 (45-445-5)

Oregon WR

2007: 55-844-8

2008: 50-751-5

2009: 53-696-6

2010: 77-1076-12

2011: 48-599-10

2012: 32-493-7

Oregon TE

2007: 43-453-3

2008: 35-508-3

2009: 42-551-6

2010: 24-418-4

2011: 31-438-6

2012: 25-392-6

There’s enough in each of these samples to get excited about a player from each position grouping. The problem, for now, is deciphering who are the players to roster. The running backs, Soso Jamabo and Bolo Olorunfunmi are the likely candidates to be the primary ball carriers in 2018. They are both so cheap right now that grabbing both of them late in drafts seems like a prudent approach. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the QB to roster in dynasty formats, but his 2018 outlook is murky. The tight end is often a terrific CFF weapon in Kelly’s offenses. However, the problem right now is quality depth. Caleb Wilson showed his ability to be a terrific pass catcher last season but is recovering from a foot injury. Michigan transfer, Devin Asiasi, is the most complete player of the trio and could be an effective red-zone-threat. Lastly, Jordan Wilson has been compared to Zach Ertz who caught 169 balls and scored nine touchdowns in three NFL seasons playing in Kelly’s offense. Monitoring this roster throughout fall camp and remaining vigilant in monitoring the waiver wire opportunities in season with this team are two things I will be doing.

UTEP Miners:

I wish I could tell you much about UTEP’s previous coach, his tendencies, and the identity he created for Miners, but I cannot. The systemic challenges remain the same for this UTEP program but they will hope that the hiring of Dana Dimel will turn the worm. His impact on the rushing stats should be profound. The pass catchers, not named Tyler Lockett, haven’t been of much consequence in CFF. Let’s take a look at how his quarterbacks and running backs have performed:

Kansas State QB

2009: 100-175-1096-4-4, 106-308-3

2010: 171-263-2060-14-7, 110-157-9

2011: 161-281-1918-13-6, 317-1141-27

2012: 197-304-2646-16-9, 207-925-23

2013: 159-260-2469-18-9, 118-312-6

2014: 262-397-3501-22-7, 154-484-9

2015: 131-275-1837-9-10, 180-613-13

2016: 152-264-1755-9-4, 183-1012-12

2017: 155-268-2256-15-8, 234-1103-14

Kansas State RB

2009: 247-1265-11 (25-267-0)

2010: 298-1595-19 (27-171-0)

2011: 200-970-3 (24-188-1)

2012: 189-952-15 (18-98-1)

2013: 198-1048-10 (13-129-1)

2014: 133-540-9 (8-75-1)

2015: 142-696-5 (12-139-0) & 28-86-6 (Winston Dimel)

2016: 115-596-2 & 86-464-3 & 56-442-6 & 30-92-12 (Winston Dimel) (22 combine catches)

2017: 146-819-7 & 19-63-4 (Winston Dimel) (13 combined catches)

This offense must have a dynamic runner at QB to thrive. Good news, Kai Locksley took the road less traveled to land in El Paso. From 247Sports, “Channeling his brother (now tragically deceased), Locksley never did give up Iowa Western’s starting job. He led the Reivers to a 9-1 record as a starter, finishing the season with 2,238 yards passing, 705 rushing and 40 total touchdowns against six interceptions while completing 66.4 percent of his passes. The NJCAA named Locksley its Offensive Player of the Year and a first-team All-American.” Aside from Locksley, there are several talented players in the running back room. The player I noted above, Winston Dimel, is the son of head coach Dana. He played fullback at Kansas State before transferring to UTEP and he is a potential touchdown vulture (77 carries, 22 TDs). Quadraiz Wadley and Joshua Fields are my guesses for who will have the most touches of the running backs with Winston Dimel and Treyvon Hughes potentially handling short-yardage and goal-line work.


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kfrancis

Senior Director of College Fantasy Football. Watch and absorb football year round and apply what I learn to CFF. Fan of the one true dynasty - Roll Tide.

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