Dynasty

Dynasty Outlook: NFC North Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Outlook series where I discuss a buy low, sell high and deep sleeper for each NFL team. Today we will start off with the NFC North. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant players in this division. Let’s take a deeper dive into the values on these fantasy players![exceltable id=’47826′]Chicago BearsBuy Low: Mitch TrubiskyIn the month of June, Trubisky had an ADP of 148.7 and is the 18th quarterback taken off the board, while he finished last year as QB14. He threw for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while rushing for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns in 14 games. He was in his first year under Head Coach, Matt Nagy, and I look to see him have a breakout third season. The current QB14 taken in startup drafts is Jameis Winston with an ADP of 133.7, which is about a round before Trubisky. Of the top 20 quarterbacks in 2018, only two played in 13 games (Baker, QB17 and Mitch, QB14), one played in 14 games (Cam, QB10) and the other 17 played in all 15 fantasy football season games. If Mitch doesn’t miss those two games and keeps his 19.4 PPG, he would have finished inside the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks last season.

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Using VBD to Determine Your Chances of Contention

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Sometimes in dynasty fantasy football, it can be hard to know if your roster is worthy of a championship run or not. There are stacked teams, but this is a high variance game that we so love, so even the stacked teams find ways not to win sometimes. Today I’ll show you how to quantifiably show you are in the ballpark of contention for either a playoff spot or a championship run.

How do we do that, Mike? Well, if you’ve read my stuff before, you know I love using VBD (Value Based Drafting) for a variety of subjects. If you haven’t read some of it before, I’ve previously shown you how to game your league format using the concept, as well as quantifying how much tight-end-premium scoring really matters. A lot can be learned from comparing players to “replacement level”. That’s the very basic definition of VBD if you’re unfamiliar with the concept.

Alright already, let’s get into it then! First off, VBD is built off projections. So you will have to find your favorite set of, hopefully fairly granular projections, and get them into a player database. Once you have this, you can apply your league’s scoring format to the season-long projections for every player to determine just how many points each player projects to score, specifically for your league. For this article, I’m using my good buddy @FF_TomB ‘s season-long projections. It’s honestly better than anything I could have gotten put together this year, not having done so before. Plus he let me in to see how the “sausage is made” so to speak and I wholeheartedly approve of his methodology. I also held a contest on Twitter to decide whose league to break down. My fellow “815” guy @JasonTran guessed my favorite Chicago Bear of all time correctly.

If you don’t know who Peanut Tillman is, look him up. He’s a genuinely cool person outside of the sport too. But…that’s not why you clicked the link to this article!

Scoring / Starting Requirements

Here are the scoring and starting requirements for Jason’s league:

As you can see here, it’s a relatively normal starting lineup for an offense only Superflex league. Flex heavy lineups allow for some cool roster construction techniques compared to more rigid starting lineup settings. A few things to note about their scoring that’s different from many leagues.

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RB Theorem: Benny Friedman’s 40

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Author Note: Recently, I received an email from stathead (a mailer from the great sports statistics website sports-reference.com). The email detailed the NFL statistical leaders of the 1920s. I took notice that Benny Friedman threw a league-leading 40 touchdown passes during the decade. From my past research, I knew that was a lot for the

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Preseason Top 10 2020 prospects: Wide Receivers 6-10

Devy, Dynasty / By /

The word for a while has been all about how crazy talented the skill position groups are for the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. I was skeptical of it at first glance. It wasn’t until I settled in to watch these players that I realized that it could be a historic class. The headliner group is the wide receiver group. In both fantasy and real football, wide receivers are becoming more and more valuable due to the increase in passing efficiency and new offenses of the era.I was impressed by the 2019 class because it not only had a definite superstar candidate in DK Metcalf, but it also had depth. Last year’s class was an insanely deep group of talented wide receivers. There were 28 total wide receivers drafted with about 23 undrafted players I gave a draftable grade to. It was a phenomenally deep class of players.The 2020 group beats it. I don’t mean simply beat, I mean outclassed in a 2003 Oklahoma-Texas A&M style blowout. Not only does this class have superstar talents, it has *several*. It was so difficult to narrow down the list to just ten players for this article, and several others could have made their case for it. To properly narrow down this list and give each player their due justice, I had to split this thing in half.Here is my WRs from 10-6:10. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma StateOklahoma State has a history of producing NFL caliber wide receivers in recent history, with guys like Dez Bryant, Justin Blackmon, and James Washington being taken high in their respective drafts. Tylan Wallace will join that list soon. Wallace is an explosive athlete and a phenom in contested catch situations with great body control.He’ll need to cut down on his drop numbers, but his QB Taylor Cornelius didn’t deliver him an accurate ball most of the time. Being an Oklahoma State product, his routes are fairly limited, but there are traits for him to build off of to become successful in this area.Pro Comp: Paul Richardson, Washington RedskinsBest Fit: New Orleans SaintsThe Saints wide receivers are Michael Thomas and a bunch of guys. Ted Ginn is effective but aging, and we’re still waiting for signs of life from former 3rd rounder Tre’Quan Smith. Tylan Wallace would be a great fit in Sean Payton’s offense as a deep threat as a Z or even in the slot. With Thomas dominating and altering the defense, Tylan’s explosiveness and contested catch ability would be a mismatch.

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Melvin Gordon Hold-out Reaction

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With the Los Angeles Chargers a little over two weeks away from opening training camp, news broke today that absent a new contract extension, star running back Melvin Gordon does not plan to be there. Adam Schefter reported the news via Twitter this morning. Now Melvin Gordon owners everywhere are forced to hold their breath and cross their fingers that we aren’t on the verge of another Le’Veon Bell situation.

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Why DeAndre Hopkins should be the 1.01 in Dynasty Startups

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Ask anyone in the dynasty community and most will say Saquon Barkley(NYG- RB), Christian McCaffrey (CAR – RB), Alvin Kamara (NO – RB) or Ezekiel Elliot (DAL – RB) are going in the top four in dynasty startup drafts. There is an argument for all four to go 1.01.  If your league is 2 QB or superflex, then Patrick Mahomes (KC – QB) is another player that will be in consideration for the 1.01. All of these players are great choices and I am not telling you to pass on these guys if you are in love with them. One thing I noticed when looking at the most recent Dynasty Football Factory ADP is that there are zero wide receivers going in the top three in single quarterback startup dynasty drafts. Hopkins has the current best ADP for dynasty startups with 3.5. Why are receivers being passed on? I am here to tell you why you should draft a WR as your top asset.  More specifically, I will discuss why DeAndre Hopkins (HOU – WR) should be your 1.01 in dynasty startup drafts!

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Second Year Wide Receivers to Buy Before It’s Too Late!

Dynasty / By /

With most dynasty rookie drafts wrapped up and training camps still a few weeks away, June is a great time to start evaluating your dynasty roster for 2019 and beyond. With that in mind, below is a deep dive on three wideouts I’m actively looking to target this summer. All three are guys who could easily outperform the cost of the acquisition this preseason, and perhaps start paying off as early as 2019. 

Robert Foster – Buffalo Bills
Latest Dynasty Football Factory ADP: 136 Overall, WR59
My Dynasty Valuation: 119 Overall, WR44

Signed as an undrafted rookie free agent……….

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Diamonds in the Rough: NFC West Rookie Edition

Dynasty / By /

And here we are. We’ve traversed our way through every division in the AFC and NFC finding those late round players that can make a difference in your league in not only their rookie year but for years to come. Our final stop leads us to the NFC West.A friendly reminder as we dive deep into our selection that we’re focusing on rookies that were drafted in the fourth round or later. There are some gems to be had in this article so let’s get our pick axes and hard hats as we dive in head first for our last edition of Diamonds in the Rough.Hakeem Butler, Arizona Cardinals, WRButler seemed a lock to be a second round pick but fell all the way to the top of the fourth round. I’m selfishly happy that he fell here because it makes my job a lot easier on who to select from the Arizona Cardinals prospects. At 6’5” 227 lbs, Butler is an opposing figure and will be a load for most cornerbacks that he will be matched up with.He’s a big play receiver, leading his entire draft class in receiving yards of passes that traveled 20-plus yards or more and having eight touchdowns of 40-plus yards over the past two seasons. His size and length will work in his favor in 50-50 ball situations. ……..

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Dynasty Hot Routes: RB Depth Charting

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Who is your long shot juggernaut (or someone currently listed third on an NFL teams depth chart) RB for 2019?Joshua Johnson @DFF_ CogLet’s really roll the proverbial dice here! Give me Samaje Perine because why not, he is practically free. If you own Derrius Guice or especially Adrian Peterson throw a fourth-round pick at the Perine owner right now! He is probably thinking about cutting him anyway. With both Peterson and Guice’s injury history, it’s ludicrous to think Perine won’t see close to 100 touches………………………………

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Kyle Rudolph Contract Extension

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Kyle RudolphIt’s important that we note the contract he had before. For those who don’t spend a lot of time on Spotrac, he had a $7.625m cap hit with zero dead cap (money still counting towards the team’s cap for the year). Virtually any time a player has zero dead cap in a year, he represents a cut candidate, or what some people may call a “cap casualty”. This fact was especially exacerbated by the fact that the Vikings were up against the salary cap for the year with very little room for flexibility. It’s not uncommon for teams to look at having $7.625m more cap space as being more valuable than a player. In this case, the Vikings found a way to have their cake and eat it too, while also giving Rudolph some short term guarantees………..

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