The Fantasy Impact of Andrew Luck Retiring
Saturday night brought the stunning announcement that Andrew Luck has […]
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Dynasty
Dynasty Outlook – D.J. Moore vs Curtis Samuel
Who is the wide receiver to own in dynasty in Carolina? D.J. Moore has the pedigree and metrics with Curtis Samuel not too far behind on those fronts. Samuel Wallace takes a look at the strengths and weaknesses of both players and helps you decide on which player to buy.
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Pettis’s Perplexing Progression
After a scorching hot finish to the 2018 season, the heat carried the Hot Air Balloon that is Dante Pettis’s value high into the sky. However, the month of August has not been kind to the University of Washington product, as he suffers a challenging camp and preseason. As the heat is decreasing and the Hot Air Balloon begins to sink what should you do?
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Divisional Beat: NFC West – Los Angeles Rams
Here is my bird’s eye view of how the teams in the NFC West are looking from a fantasy perspective for the upcoming NFL100 season. I’ll be updating the dynasty outlooks of players throughout the season ahead. But we need a starting reference point to work from, and this is it.Let’s start with the divisional champions, the Los Angeles Rams.
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Wide Receiver Sleepers
One of the most satisfying aspects of dynasty fantasy football is drafting a later-round player and having them before their breakout. In this article, we focus on three sleeper wide receivers you can grab late in your rookie drafts.
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RB Theorem: Otis Armstrong Takes Charge in 1974
The 1973 season saw the NFL’s first 2,000-yard rusher. Orenthal James “O.J.” Simpson whisked his way to history by rolling up 2,003 rushing yards. His Buffalo Bills only needed him to handle the rock 332 times. That was good for an average per attempt of six yards. Those were truly astonishing feats by the man most fans referred to as “The Juice.”
Enter the Broncos 1973 first-round pick (9th overall) Otis Armstrong.
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The Offseason Waiver Wire
This week’s waiver wire article is all heavy on backup running backs. When scouring the waiver wire, you should be looking to add players who are only an injury away from a significant role. Wide receivers don’t typically fit this bill because even when a wide receiver goes down to injury, his targets can be distributed among many other receivers, running backs and tight ends. When a running goes down, his touches are usually not distributed to more than one or two other players. You can hold onto these players and hope that the become outliers. Or you can flip them for late-round picks or FAAB it’s all profit since all it will take to acquire them is the roster space.
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Michael Thomas Extension
Michael Thomas’ contract has been reported for a few days, but the salary cap information for Michael Thomas’ contract extension is publicly available now. If you read some of my other pieces on player contracts like Kyle Rudolph or Tyler Boyd, you know the difference between something dynasty owners should react positively to, or to fade doing so. Generally, when a player makes money as Thomas did, we don’t need to question if the guaranteed money will be substantial enough. However, the first time we don’t follow the process step by step is the first time we will find ourselves burnt by doing so. So let’s dive into his new deal, shall we?
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Dynasty Outlook: Michael Gallup
Take a close look at the following information and try to answer this question: does this sound like an offense that can effectively support a second relevant fantasy wide receiver?
-A QB who has failed to eclipse 4,000 passing yards in a season during his career
-A team that has averaged 26th in the league in pass attempts during the last three seasons
-An RB who is averaging 100+ rushing yards and 130+ yards from scrimmage per game in his career
-A team that has averaged fifth in the league in rushing attempts during the last three seasons
-A recent addition at WR that has posted 1,000+ yards in three of his last four seasons
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Dynasty Strategy: Going All In
In Dynasty Leagues you are either rebuilding, retooling, or going all-in. For some of us, the fun in a dynasty league is rebuilding or retooling our team. Hell, isn’t that the reason you chose the worst-rated team in Madden franchise mode to build them back up from the bottom to get your hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Sometimes the lines can get blurred when you’re in the retooling phase. You’re one or maybe two players away from putting you over the top and one or two away from forcing your hand into a rebuild.I’ve talked about doing the rebuild for your dynasty league. Now let’s talk about going all-in. Although not as “scary” as a full rebuild, there are some things that you need to keep in mind as you push the chips to the center of the table.WHO ELSE IS IN ALL-IN MODE?Everyone is operating on a different timeline. As noted before, you are either rebuilding, retooling, or going all-in. Take an honest assessment of your team and your opponents’ teams. Every player in fantasy should be viewed as a stock, either rising or dropping. If your players are rising then you’re headed for, or on the cusp of, all-in mode.CONGRATULATIONS! You’re almost there.As fun as it is rebuilding a team, we’re ultimately playing to win it all. To rub it in our friend’s face, indulge ourselves in the spoils of a successful season. But how do you put yourself over the top, ensuring a victory over your fellow “all-in comrades”?Simple, get veterans.Rookies are coveted in dynasty leagues. They’re your team’s future, the foundation on which your team will be built on for future seasons’ glories.Here’s a fun stat from last year, because I know we all love stats. Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Herndon were all the highest scoring rookies at their respective positions last year.All of these rookies finished outside of the top 15 in scoring at their position last year, except for Saquon, who passes the eye test and looks to be a fantasy football god in the making and has “Zero to Hero,” from Hercules playing in my head every time I see highlights of him. Baker finished at QB16, Calvin at WR18, and Chris at TE15.
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No Risk It, No Biscuit
Well, that didn’t last long. After only a year into retirement, Bruce Arians is back in the NFL, as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With all the pieces falling into place, the hiring of Arians only made sense.
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Dynasty Outlook: Will Fuller vs Keke Coutee
Over the last few weeks, I’ve seen quite a bit of discussion and debate surrounding the Houston Texan’s wide receiving corps. At the top of the depth chart is arguably the best receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins. There isn’t much room for discussion as to who will command the majority of targets in that offense.
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Dynasty Hot Routes: Tight End Pontifications
The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot button issues that face dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/Sit, Non-PPR (standard scoring), PPR, and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes, tight end edition!
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The Rise of Ridley the Route Runner
If you’re anything like me, there are fewer things in this world more satisfying than watching a wide receiver dismantle a defensive back with a nasty, precise route on his way to scoring a touchdown. You know exactly what I’m talking about, don’t you? You can picture it in your head – the receiver aggressively comes off the line and forces the cornerback into a frantic back peddle. Next, the receiver breaks hard towards the middle of the field…the defender’s hips turn…and suddenly you can feel the six points coming from your couch. The receiver turns upfield and is immediately so open, you wonder if the defender was ever there. The quarterback hits him in stride as he crosses the goal line while the defender is left behind. Simply beautiful.Now, maybe there are a few things in this world that are more satisfying than what I just described, but you have to appreciate the technical effort that goes into making that play happen in only a matter of seconds. One of the best young route runners in the league, and arguably the most exciting rookie wide receiver last year, is Calvin Ridley, and he is quickly making a name for himself in the league.Coming out of college, his Draft Profile Analysis started with the following statements from NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein, “Ridley has game-changing talent complete with blazing speed and rare route-running ability for a college prospect. He ran the full route tree at Alabama, has experience working in a pro-style attack and is a plug-and-play starter on day one.” Prior to him even stepping onto the field for a professional game, he was already known for his incredible route running abilities.Before I dive into the numbers and analysis, if you haven’t yet seen some of Calvin Ridley’s proficient route running, go do that and then come back and finish reading this. Better yet, check out some of my recent tweets and you’re sure to see some Ridley routes in there. I want you to be able to picture the greatness in your mind as I convince you that he is one of the most dominant young wideouts in the game.
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The Offseason Waiver Wire
It may only be August (almost), but it’s never too
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Breakout Third-Year Wide Receivers, Part 2
Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class. I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player). Here is part two of this piece.
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Not Your Average Joe
It has been a while since we’ve witnessed a fantasy running back as polarizing and talented as Joe Mixon. Last I can recall is Demarco Murray, maybe (feel free to offer suggestions, could be a fun discussion topic). Either way, the Joe Mixon takes are HOT. Some believe he can’t crack the top 10 again, and others project him as a candidate to finish the number one fantasy running back. Either one of those things can happen. I mean anything is possible, but what I want to analyze is the notion Mixon can’t be a top-five fantasy running back. This idea has been tossed around the twitter-verse and all over the fantasy community, but there is a strong case he will take the leap this year and elevate his play in 2019. The arrival of former LA Rams QB coach Zac Taylor and the West Coast offense is a major indicator Joe Mixon will be better utilized this year. Taylor played a major role in overseeing and constructing one of the most high powered offenses in the league last year. Sean McVay noted: “he was instrumental our in third-down game-planning.” Placing more emphasis on passing the ball certainly didn’t hurt Todd Gurley’s fantasy production last season. Gurley was the number three fantasy running back with 1,831 total yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns in 14 games. The Bengals new offensive philosophy will have a dual effect, improving Mixon’s rushing and passing production. A breakdown of each aspect reveals how Joe Mixon and Zac Taylor can take his game to the next level. …………………….
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Future WR Stars
Two statistical measurements are quickly growing in popularity among fantasy football analysts – Dominator Rating and Breakout Age. Essentially, these two variables tell us how productive a player was in college at their peak, and how old they were when that (hopefully) high level of production occurred. As I have become more comfortable working these numbers, I began to draw comparisons between established NFL players and incoming rookies with similar Dominator Ratings and Breakout Ages.According to PlayerProfiler, an incoming player with a Dominator Rating greater than 45% and a Breakout Age less than 19 years old is phenomenal. For the sake of this article, I am using a Dominator Rating of greater than 40% and a Breakout Age of younger than 20 years old for my comparative research on wide receivers. To filter out those rookies who produced immediately upon entering the league, I am using 600 yards receiving as a rookie and draft capital inside of Day 2 (Rounds 1-3) as my final cut off variable.Since 2010, there have been nine players who have met the cutoff of having a Dominator Rating of 40% or greater, a Breakout Age of less than 20 years old, who had at least 600 receiving yards their rookie year and were drafted in Rounds 1-3.
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