Jonathan Taylor. The consensus ranking by most experts for Anthony Richardson in 2024 has typically been in the QB5 or QB6 range, and KeepTradeCut (KTC) has him currently valued as QB8. But going into this season, he’s my top-ranked Dynasty Fantasy Football quarterback. I know it’s a small sample size, and he’s going into only his second professional season, but Richardson has all the tools and potential to dream. Nicknamed “AR-15”, Richardson, now 22 years old, was drafted fourth overall in the 2023 draft by the Indianapolis Colts. His rookie season was very promising until it was cut short by a shoulder injury in Week 5.
I believe the dual-threat star is on the verge of a breakout season. He might be the most athletic quarterback ever, and his rare mix of physical attributes, mental toughness, dedication to the game, weapons around him, and head coach Shane Steichen as his play-caller all have him set to become a dominant force this upcoming season.
* The statistics in this article were pulled from Sports Reference, KeepTradeCut (KTC), and Sleeper.
2023 Season Review
Richardson’s season was off to a flying start until his injury in Week 5. But in this short sample size, he showed flashes of what the future holds. Within Dynasty Fantasy Football, a quarterback’s upside is based on their ability to be a true dual-threat option, and this is where Richardson excels. In the three full games he played, his lowest rushing output was 35 yards in Week 2 against the Houston Texans. He had two top-five finishes (Full-PPR), as he finished as QB4 in Week 1, his first career game, with 21.92 fantasy points (Full-PPR) and QB2 in Week 4 with 30.60 fantasy points (Full-PPR). In his four starts, even with his injury in his last game, Richardson averaged 18.67 (Full-PPR) fantasy points per game. This was tied for QB13 overall from a PPG perspective. Based on this small sample size, it’s evident that this is a special player, and his ceiling is through the roof.
In 2023, the Colts showed what this offense could be going forward. They ran the RPO at the highest rate in the league at 18%, playing into Richardson’s biggest strength: running the ball. If he had been able to stay healthy, he was on pace to lead all quarterbacks in rush yards (925 yards), rushing touchdowns (26), attempts (170), and designed runs (111). Richardson had four rushing touchdowns in his first three professional games. Coach Steichen knows how to use scrambling quarterbacks, and Richardson will continue to be a menace at or near the goal line alongside running back Jonathan Taylor.
QB1 in 2024?
Going into his second season, the sky is the limit for Richardson. His biggest concern is health-related, but he can’t yet be labeled as injury-prone. He’s only been hurt one year and it’s not recurring yet as it’s difficult to predict injuries. But assuming he’s healthy, his 2024 season should only be stronger as he works to cement himself as one of the league’s top Dynasty Fantasy Football quarterbacks. The Colts beefed up their offense around him. With a healthy Taylor at running back, the Colts’ wide receiver room is deep, consisting of Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and a second-round pick (52nd overall), Adonai Mitchell. In addition, they also have a potential red zone star in tight end Jelani Woods, a 6’7″ beast who has the team excited as he looks healthy and ready for a breakout year.
So the question is: Does Richardson have a chance to be the QB1 overall in 2024? I don’t see why not. He’s a rare quarterback, and his rushing upside plays a significant factor in his fantasy success. Since 2014, all quarterbacks who finished as the overall QB1 were in the top ten in rushing yards, which only solidifies my case with Richardson.
Richardson has tight competition amongst the NFL’s other quarterbacks with the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson to finish as QB1. But you can make a case that Allen might regress without Stefon Diggs because of uncertainty around his wide receivers. Hurts has a new offense to learn without Jason Kelce as his center, and Saquon Barkley may steal some goal-line work. Even with their added weapons, Patrick Mahomes’ wide receiver corps has some uncertainty, with a Rashee Rice suspension looming and their superstar tight end entering his age-35 season. Lastly, Lamar Jackson might regress by running the ball less with Derrick Henry on board.
If he can stay healthy, Richardson can easily solidify his case as QB1 this upcoming season, as it’s easy to project him to have well over 500 rushing yards. And since 2014, half of those QB1 yearly finishers had over 500 rushing yards and finished in the top five in quarterback rushing yards. It’s eye-popping that in 2023, Richardson had the same number of top 5 finishes as CJ Stroud despite playing 11 fewer games. Sure, his 2023 season was a small sample size, but it’s all the data we have to work with. Additionally, one thing that’s encouraging to hear from the Colts is that he’s reportedly added weight and is now sitting at 255 pounds, which is 11 pounds heavier than his NFL Draft weight of 244 pounds.
I can go through a list of statistics that have me drooling over Richardson’s ability, but one of the most critical factors is his pairing with Shane Steichen. Steichen is one of the league’s best play-callers and the offensive mind who helped Jalen Hurts reach the Super Bowl in 2022 and finish as league MVP runner-up to Patrick Mahomes. Richardson is a remarkable athlete, and he’s the closest thing we have in the league to Lamar Jackson, who’s a two-time MVP (2019 & 2023). I don’t think it’s too early to compare him to some of the historically great rushing quarterbacks like Michael Vick.
Dynasty Value
As I previously mentioned, Richardson’s current value is Dynasty QB8 on KeepTradeCut (KTC), and in my opinion, this is way too low. Richardson still has a lot of time to learn and gain experience, and he’s far from reaching his prime. He’s already an excellent runner, so if he improves his passing (reports say he looks more polished), there’s no reason to think he won’t be at least a top-three Dynasty Fantasy Football quarterback, if not higher. With his running, it’s easy to project Richardson to score the most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks this season. If he stays healthy this season and lives up to his potential, he’ll increase his value to the point where he could be a top-five overall Dynasty asset by the end of this upcoming season.
Conclusion
Richardson’s incredible rushing ability makes him a fantasy cheat code and a potential league winner at the quarterback position in 2024 and beyond if he can do one thing: stay healthy. He checks all the boxes when you look for a potential QB1 candidate: Young talent, potent offense, athleticism, rushing quarterback, and talented play-caller. A QB1 overall finish is a very real possibility for him in 2024. All of my chips are in on Richardson being the QB1 in 2024, so add him to your Dynasty Fantasy Football rosters now to turn your team into a league-winner.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you gained some valuable information. If you have any questions or you’d like additional insight and analysis, please follow me on Twitter/X at @MonicasHubby. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
