Playoff time is here at last! Did you make it? Sure hope so. Playoffs are the best. It doesn’t matter if you snuck in at 6-7 or ran the table and locked up a first-round bye. From here on out, you win or you go home. That fact is why playoff matchups matter so much. It doesn’t matter if you spent a high-round pick on a guy or if he won you a handful of matchups this year. That was then, this is now. You have to be honest about how that player will perform this week, because this week is the only thing that matters. You have to be in it to win it, so play the guys who will keep you in it.
In addition to some interesting playoff matchups, we’re also running through some of the players that interest us from a dynasty perspective for those of you who are already looking forward to 2021. Best of luck to those of you in the playoffs, and happy offseason trading to you dynasty readers.
Zach’s Playoff Start – Corey Davis
Well, hello 5th-year breakout! Just like we all expected, Corey Davis has emerged as a legit fantasy threat. In 6 of 10 games played this year, Corey Davis has either had 100 receiving yards or a touchdown. Taking away the donut he put up in week 9, Davis has had at least 8.5 points in half-point PPR settings every week. He offers a very high floor and a high ceiling as well. He had a nice matchup in week 14 against Jacksonville. When they last met in week two, Davis had three catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Davis gets the benefit of facing the Lions the following week which has fantasy managers licking their chops. Each of his next two weeks is against a team with a bottom third defense against wide receivers.
With Jonnu Smith fading in the second half of the season, Davis is being used just as often as his counterpart A.J. Brown in this offense. Davis is a sneaky good option for the fantasy playoffs coming off a season-high 11 catches, 182 yards and 1 touchdown against the Browns in week 13.
Will’s Playoff Start – David Montgomery
If you look around at a number of expert rankings for week 14, you’ll see David Montgomery ranked ahead of some huge names. Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott and Kenyan Drake are some of the names that fantasy analysts have behind Montgomery. Kamara and Elliott cost you a top-five pick in the draft. The rest were late firsts or solid second-rounders. But here we are in week 14 and David Montgomery, the personification of “meh,” is the number one running back over the last two weeks and set to be a top-ten back in the first round of the playoffs. That’s what volume and positive matchups do for you.
The Bears’ running back feasted against Green Bay and Detroit and looks set to do the same this week against Houston. The Texans just allowed Jonathan Taylor to average a full seven yards per carry last week, so Montgomery should be locked into your rosters now.
Will’s Playoff Sit – Miles Sanders
I wrote about Sanders a few weeks back as a sell, but even I didn’t expect it to get this bad. He’s now put up single-digit fantasy finishes in three straight games and was limited to ten carries and a single target against the Packers. Those are the same Packers that gave up 103 yards to David Montgomery in week 12. Sanders just isn’t getting the work needed to be a lock in your starting lineup. Jordan Howard is in the mix now. Jalen Hurts will get designed runs. There’s no way we can guarantee even 12 touches for Sanders going forward, which means he’ll need to hit a home run to return value.
Week 14 sees Sanders facing off against the stingy Saints defense. If he couldn’t get it done against the Packers, you should have little faith in him against New Orleans. I know he probably cost you a second-round pick, but you have to look elsewhere if you can.
Zach’s Dynasty Target – Cam Akers
If you can still get him as a slight buy low, Cam Akers is a big target for me. The Rams appear to be ramping up his workload over the last three weeks with 5 carries, 9 carries and last week with 21 carries. Akers has scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks and seems to be building great momentum going into the offseason. While Darrell Henderson had a nice half of the fantasy season, Akers is the future in Los Angeles. While you would like to see more work in the receiving game for Akers, he has been in a three-way timeshare for most of the year. I believe that Akers will be the lead guy coming into the 2021 season and will have a fun offense to work with. A
kers has not had the same type of season that some of the other big name rookie running backs have had but he is rounding into form. Henderson will still be in the mix next year, but I fully believe he will be playing a complementary role to Akers when it all shakes out. He is a guy that I would feel comfortable sending a late 1st for in dynasty leagues.
Will’s Dynasty Target – James Robinson
This year’s rookie running back class was poised to do great things. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins were all first-rounders in rookie drafts who were set to light up the NFL. As it turns out, it’s James Robinson who is about to finish up a top-five running back season in his first year. The difference in preseason value and production is why James Robinson is the most fascinating player in dynasty fantasy football. What is the long-term outlook for a guy who went undrafted and then turned in a league-winning rookie year? Do the Jaguars believe in him enough to keep handing him the rock as much as they did in year one? These are the questions that need to be asked when assessing the dynasty value of Robinson.
I’m willing to roll the dice on Robinson. Too many dynasty owners will knock him due to the fact that he was simply off the radar last year. That’s a mistake. Robinson will finish 2020 as a top-five running back. There is no guarantee that any of the running backs who were drafted in the first round of rookie drafts this offseason ever do what Robinson is doing, but these guys are still being valued higher due to pedigree. I’ll take production over pedigree any day of the week.
Zach’s Dynasty Fade – Tyler Lockett
I was in the camp of this being Tyler Lockett’s last year as the top dog in Seattle, but it seems D.K. Metcalf took an even bigger step than I had anticipated in year two. Lockett is a boom/bust player and will be turning 29 as the season starts in 2021. Lockett has likely won you multiple weeks this season when he had three games this season with 92 yards, 100 yards and 200 yards receiving. He has also likely cost you multiple weeks when he had five games with under 45 yards receiving. He will still be a good fantasy asset next year, but he will be playing on the final year of his contract.
Certainly, the Seahawks could resign him, but if he goes to another team and has to learn a new offense in 2022 at the age of 30, he will be in a difficult place for fantasy production. If you can net a 1st for Lockett or a younger player on the upswing, I would make that deal now. Metcalf is the top dog in Seattle and will be for a long time. I think we have seen the best of Lockett and I would be looking to move on from him this offseason.
Go get ‘em! Will (@Dynastywalrus) and Zach (@DFF_Ztrain) would love to hear from you on Twitter to discuss buys, sells, and anything else fantasy!
