Every week I am going to do a “Buy/Sell/Hold” for the upcoming rookie class and will eventually transfer into all NFL players. I am categorizing these players based on recent trends or lack thereof trends of each player, enjoy.
Buy: Justin Jefferson WR LSU
Not enough people are talking about this wide receiver out of LSU. Coming off of a record-breaking season, you would think that everyone would be talking about Justin Jefferson as they are talking about some of the top guys in this class.
The reason I think Jefferson isn’t being talked about enough is that he is an overall “good” prospect. When the hype starts for these prospects, everyone looks to find one trait that sticks out, good or bad, for each prospect, and in Jefferson’s case, there is none. When evaluating wide receiver prospects, I look at a couple of things: Breakout Age, Market Share, and the ability to create space on routes. As you can see with the two graphics above, Jefferson broke out at the age of 19.21 years old and held market share percentages in all three categories (Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving Touchdowns) above 25%. Keep in mind that he also did this with Ja’Marr Chase, Thad Moss, Clyde Edwards Helaire, and Terrance Marshall Jr. competing for targets.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHQLugqDGLA[/embedyt]
There is a ton of film you can watch on Jefferson, and each play shows off his amazing playmaking talent. If you can get him in cheap in a devy league, now is the time to do so.
Sell: Denzel Mims WR Baylor
I do not doubt Mims’s talent as a wide receiver at the next level. I am just questioning the recent hype he has been getting due to his performance at the Senior Bowl. Let us start off by taking a look at the wide receivers to come out of Baylor in the last 10 years: Jalen Hurd, Corey Coleman, Tevin Reese, Terrance Williams, Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright, and David Gettis. As you can see, this is not the greatest of lists. Although this list isn’t directly related to Mims talent, this list is to give some pause when evaluating Baylor wide receivers based on Market Share, Breakout Age, and College Dominator.
When looking at his career stats at Baylor, you can see that there was a little drop off in 2018, but in the big picture, he was consistent in terms of overall stats. Yes, I take all stats into account when evaluating players, but when the school they come from has a history of bad hit rates in the NFL it gives me pause.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r_9ZBwmjMc[/embedyt]
The clips shown above, via Brad Kelly’s YouTube channel, are from the Senior Bowl practices. In those clips are each individual 1-on-1 practice reps for Mims, and as you can see, nothing really jumps off the screen. Like I mentioned earlier, I do not doubt Mims’s talent. I am just selling at what the market values him at right now. Another underlying factor that came with the Senior Bowl this past week was the lack of cornerback talent. Out of all the defensive backs there, only three were in the Pro Football Focus top 100 big board, and one of those players is a safety. Will Mims be able to get open on NFL talent? I guess we will find out.
Hold: James Proche, SMU
Although this is the hold category, I think James Proche classifies as a DO NOT SELL player for me. Coming in as one of the older prospects in this wide receiver class, people may throw Proche out of the picture when it comes to building their dynasty team. This is not the case for me, for I love this undervalued playmaker even more so at the cost he is at now.
As we can see, Proche was very productive in college and held fantastic market share percentages in all three categories. What separates Proche, who comes from a small school, from the other small school players is the market share he held with Courtland Sutton, Trey Quinn, and Reggie Roberson competing for the ball every play at a given point in his career.
For example, in the 2017 season, Proche was the third option for this team as Trey Quinn, and Courtland Sutton both achieved 1,000+ yard seasons, yet Proche was still able to put up 816 yards with a market share of 22.1%. Many analysts in the industry state that if you can’t hold a significant market share against other NFL talents in college, then there is no way you will be able to in the NFL. As mentioned before, due to Proche coming in at 23 years old, his ADP in rookie drafts will be low, and I am jumping all over drafting him in what should be the 3rd round.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCUxwa7q1m4[/embedyt]
Shown in the video above is Proche’s game against Tulsa this past season. In this game, he put up a stat line of 11-153-2. Proche shows tremendous concentration and focus on every route and proves why he was a production machine at SMU. Proche is going to be a late-round steal in the NFL Draft, and he will most definitely produce for your dynasty roster.
Are you buying, selling or holding these wide receivers? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @kacer_lukas.
