Dynasty Football Factory

Situational Buy Low: Jordan Reed

Continuing my look at situational buy lows that began with Kelvin Benjamin, I decided to move on to a high-risk/high-reward tight end. As we progress, you will notice that all of the situations and all of the risks will be different for each player. As hard as it is for these buy lows, we need to try and get the risks out of our heads. I want us to focus on these juicy situations and take advantage of the negatives that surround them.

Why is now the time to buy Jordan Reed?

1. Two words, Alex Smith! Just look at Travis Kelce’s stat lines. Kelce finished as the number one fantasy TE the last two years running (overall scoring). Smith targeted Kelce 100+ times each of the last three seasons. Kelce finished each of the last two seasons with more than 1,000 yards receiving.

When Jordan Reed is on the field, there’s no question that he can achieve similar numbers in Gruden’s offense with Alex Smith throwing the ball. It’s unfortunate Reed hasn’t had more healthy seasons to look at. In 2015 Reed showed a very obtainable stat line playing 14 games. That was his healthiest season to date.

I’m going to call last year a get right year. We have enough historical data to show that the talent is there to provide production when Reed is healthy. In fact, if you take his per game average with all his ups and all his downs in sixteen games he would have finished as TE4 last year just behind Zach Ertz. Reed is still recovering from toe surgery and was never expected at OTAs, but should be good to go for training camp. He’s in great football shape and spending time honing his skills with Chad Johnson.

2. This was a fairly decent class of tight ends with Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Ian Thomas, Dalton Schultz, and Troy Fumagalli. The Redskins, however, chose not to address the position. Washington still has Vernon Davis on the roster, but he is now 34 years old and presumably not in their long-term plans. While Jordan Reed hasn’t been the picture of health, you have to think the Redskins would have addressed the position if they were as concerned as fantasy owners are.

3. Short and sweet, the risks won’t go away but it won’t take much for Reed’s price to go up. If Reed can provide a couple of weeks of solid production and gain fantasy owner’s trust he’ll once again be on everyone’s radar. Though the reasons you’re worried will always exist, have faith now and get in at the lowest possible price. If you’re still skeptical and want out later, you’ll have an opportunity sell high and still see a positive gain in your stock. Jordan Reed’s price has plummeted so far, 10.01 according to FF Calculators ADP, that he’s high reward/low-risk asset based on his cost. He’s a draft day bargain and a great buy-low target.

Jordan Reed is a tremendous athlete, he’s still eager to play football, and he has a quarterback that’s given us great success at the position. Try and take away the risks, after all, that’s why you’re getting such a great deal.

Put me down for 65 receptions, 975 yards, and 8 TDs and to finish the season as a top 5 Tight end.

Thanks for reading. You can find me on Twitter @DFF_Swag.

sswager

Shane Swaget @DFF_Swag Host of Fantasy Football Breakdown podcast! Creator of FLA Census rankings Writer for @DFF_Dynasty, #DynastyFootball #DFFArmy

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