You’re at the bar. You know that the beer you’ve been drinking all night is perfect. Hitting the spot, you aren’t going to wake up with a hangover. You’re cruising. It’s comfortable and you’re in control. Then that friend shows up, and you know in your heart that the shot of Jamo or 1800 isn’t the right path for your night but you do it, and you suffer the consequences.
Fantasy drafts are a lot like a night out at the bar with a bunch of your friends. There are ways that you can go that are going to lead to a fun, happy experience, and there are ways you may go that can lead to pain and suffering. Especially when you consider the early rounds of your draft, one mistake can lead to a solid four months of suffering.
This article labeling players as “busts” doesn’t mean that they are untalented. It doesn’t mean that they’re going to have horrific seasons and finish outside of the Top 50 at their position. It simply means that their price is too high for me at the moment. “Musts” are guys that I’m targeting at or even a bit before their current ADP. It’s important that you don’t draft a guy at a point in the draft where he would’ve made it back to your next pick, but it’s also important that you draft the guys you believe in when you know you’ll get them. The feeling of being sniped in a draft is the aftertaste of your first shot, if you will.
Rashaad Penny, RB Seattle Seahawks (43.9, RB21 – MFL10 ADP):
Gone are the days of the Seahawks ragdolling the competition. Per Chris Raybon, the early game lines for the season have Seattle as favorites in just 3 of their first 15 games. That isn’t the type of “season script” that typically leads to running back production. The offensive line struggles are well-documented too, with Seattle ranking 27th last season, according to Pro Football Focus. The other issue is the presence of Chris Carson. Whether you believe in either of their talents is irrelevant. It appears that Carson will have a role, regardless, if he can stay healthy. He’s gone anywhere from 28th to 66th in drafts over the past couple of weeks. If he falls far enough, I’m willing to take a shot, but it’s a muddy situation. The wide receivers in that part of the draft are much more enticing to me anyway.
LeSean McCoy, RB Buffalo Bills (30.7, RB16 – MFL10 ADP)
I will have exactly zero shares of McCoy regardless of the format in season-long football this year. Over the past two weeks, the 30-year-old RB has been going anywhere from 16 to 58 overall in MFL10s. I don’t see how the Buffalo Bills offense produces the game script that they’ll be able to lean heavily on the run. Vegas has their win total line set at 6.5 and depending on the QB situation that might be an easy under to hit. A subpar offense, aging running back (not named Frank Gore), and then you throw in the potential legal/suspension issues? Hard pass.
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Lamar Miller, RB Houston Texans (55.1, RB26 – MFL10 ADP)
I am all in on Lamar Miller. Given the rushing workload that Miller saw last year, you’d expect to see somewhere around 6-7 TDs. If he sees that positive TD regression this season, I’d imagine you’re looking at anywhere from RB10-RB15. It’s even easier to project a solid workload now because as I’m writing this, Aaron Wilson (who covers the Texans) is tweeting that D’Onta Foreman hasn’t fully recovered from his Achilles injury. It’s rare that you’re able to draft a guy so far under his floor. Since this news came out, his ADP has risen a little bit, but I think you’re still getting him right around his floor.
Allen Hurns, WR Dallas Cowboys (123, WR50 – MFL10 ADP)
Michael Gallup, WR Dallas Cowboys (180, WR66 – MFL10 ADP)
The Dallas Cowboys lost Jason Witten and kicked Dez Bryant to the curb this offseason. That makes quite a few targets available for newcomer Allen Hurns and/or rookie Michael Gallup.
Hurns is heading into his 5th season in the NFL and has been a reliable receiver through the struggles and high times…err time…of the Jacksonville Jaguars. From 2014-2017 with receivers that received 100+ targets, Blake Bortles posted his highest AYA (7.48) when throwing to Hurns. His new QB, Dak Prescott, also happens to dip slightly below average right where Hurns starts to excel on the field. Hurns could be in for a huge year, and even if he isn’t, he’s basically free.
Michael Gallup is making splash plays and the news has been nothing but positive on the kid since training camp started. The third round pick out of Colorado State had an average breakout age but posted a 74th percentile College Dominator rating, per Player Profiler.
Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots (83.4, QB4 – MFL10 ADP)
Dating back to 2002, the first time that Brady came into Week 1 as the starter, he’s had just two finishes outside of the Top 12 in fantasy. He’s been as steady as they come for years and has done it with a rotating cast of characters. Brady had ten games last year with multiple TD passes. He passed for 300 yards on six different occasions. Those spike games where he throws 2 TDs to Rob Gronkowski or a bomb to Chris Hogan are why you sign up for Brady. In MFL10 drafts over the past two weeks, he has gone as late as pick 105. One. Hundred. Five. That’s ridiculous value. If I’m picking on the 7/8 turn and he’s there, I’ll take that all day.
Thank you for reading. You can find me on Twitter @MattJonesTFR.