Week 6 Fanduel WR Budget Plays

In this weekly article, @LowOwnedWR brings you his budget plays for the FanDuel main slate, using AirYards Data from airyards.com. 

AirYards are the total number of yards the ball travels through the air before being caught or incomplete. It is awesome for seeing the volume pass catchers are getting. Hypothetical example being Kamara has 3 catches for 23 yards but if you look into the AirYards.com stats you would see he had 7 targets and 79 air yards. So you know he underperformed with his volume. If you divide the total yards by total air yards you would get his RACR which would be .29 (meaning he caught 29% of his air yards.) You can use this data to find regression (positive or negative) coming for players. Meaning you can use this to find your non-stud WRs which is a valuable thing to be able to do in DFS.

Here are a few guys who stuck out to me this week.

(using FD salaries) (aDOT = average depth of target)

John Brown (BAL) ($6300): Brown had the most air yards this week with 209, but he is also the leader in air yards for the season with 871. He is not a locked and loaded play in lineups but  I do not think it is wise to completely fade the WR who has seen the most opportunities (air yards wise). Baltimore plays Tennessee this week and the implied total is 42 so he should be relatively low owned.

Donte Moncrief (JAX) ($5700): Moncrief has 3 fewer targets and 1 less air yard than Antonio Brown has had in the last two weeks. In Week 5 Moncrief saw 15 targets, which was the most for any wide receiver, he had an aDOT of 12.4 and a total of 186 air yards. His 20 targets the last two weeks account for 21% of the team’s total targets. In Week 5 he only caught 41% of his air yards and even with the 15 targets he only finished as WR26. Jags draw Dallas and their #15th ranked pass D according to DVOA (https://www.footballoutsiders.com)

Chester Rogers (IND) ($5700): Rogers saw 11 targets which were 19% of the total targets for IND. With Hilton, Ebron, and Doyle all possibly missing this week that leaves 40% of the Colts teams targets not on the field. Rogers would be in line for a big volume day if they all miss and even if only 1 of the 3 are out Rogers still should still see an increase in volume.

Mohamed Sanu (ATL) ($5800): ATL/TB has the highest implied total on the main slate this week so Sanu is in a great spot, especially since most will probably play Julio and Ridley. Sanu did most of his damage with yards after the carry last week, but throughout the season he has 16% of ATL targets and he has a 90 RACR, so when he gets the volume he has been efficient with it.

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) ($5800): Now last week was not his week, he only saw 5 targets and 51 air yards and finished 0/0/0. Throughout the season Quincy has 27% of the Jets targets and this week he gets a weak Indianapolis defense at home and coming off a bad week. Recency bias should kick in meaning he won’t be heavily played. I like him the most out of everyone on this list.

camciletti

Writer for @DFF_Dynasty, DFS content. I play FanDuel. You can find me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR. #DFFArmy

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