Bold prediction articles are some of my favorite types of content to research before drafts. In preparing for my drafts, I always have specific players I want to target who I believe are values vs. their average draft position. Bold prediction articles highlight these players that analysts make cases for being better than their ADP. Do I expect the bold prediction to come true? No. But directionally, the goal is for that player to outperform their ADP. If the bold part of it comes true, that is just the proverbial cherry on top.
Going on record with these bold takes is not for the faint of heart, as it provides receipts in black and white to be used against you in the future. But our goal at DFF is to offer you actionable content to improve your Dynasty teams, not to protect our egos. So away we go.
Disclaimer: I am not advising you to draft these players at their bold prediction. I am advising you to target them ahead of their listed Dynasty ADP.
Before we start, here were some of my better calls from my 2023 Bold Predictions article:
James Cook (ADP 9.06 RB28) is a top 20 RB in Fantasy PPG in 2023
The biggest question with James Cook has always been whether he can handle a large workload. We track pre-season usage with starters to understand how a team plans to deploy their player usage. James Cook played 87.5% of the snaps with starters in pre-season week two. This signals a workhorse-type role.
Last year, Cook was highly efficient with his touches; he just did not get the volume. Cook’s 5.3 True Yards Per Carry ranked 2nd overall amongst all running backs. His 12.1% Breakaway Run Rate was 1st overall. It is doubtful he is used at the goal line with Josh Allen, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray, who are all more capable short-yardage backs. However, if he gets passing-down usage, Cook has significant receiving upside to more than offset this.
Result: Cook finished 2023 as the RB19 in fantasy ppg, besting his ADP by 9 spots
Brock Purdy (ADP 9.04) gains a full three rounds of Dynasty value going before pick 6.04 in 2024
I don’t think there is a single player that can return more value on their investment than Purdy. If he simply repeats what he did last year, this time next year, we are talking about a top three-round Dynasty asset easy. After all, as a rookie, all he did was come in and average 18.1 Fantasy Points Per Game in the games he started.
This was good for the QB9 overall, A-S A R-O-O-K-I-E! That is more than Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence, who each go off in the first two rounds of Dynasty startups. That doesn’t even include his 35-point outburst in the next game in the playoffs.
Kyle Shanahan doesn’t care about draft capital. He has proven this over and over again. He will ride that super cheap rookie contract as far as he can. Plus, the 49ers have perhaps the best group of skill position players in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. They are YAC monsters who can make any quarterback’s stats look great.
Result: Brock Purdy now has an ADP of 3.07. This was like taking candy from a baby.
These fourth and fifth-round Dynasty rookie draft picks will increase their ADP two full rounds in 2024:
Puka Nacua (ADP 18.08 WR 82), Michael Wilson (ADP 16.05 WR 74), Evan Hull (ADP 18.11 RB 64), Sean Tucker (ADP 18.03 RB 62), Demario Douglas (ADP 24.06, WR 108).
Result: Some misses here, but Puka Nacua was a MASSIVE win, finishing as the WR6 overall. Demario Douglas also became fantasy-relevant after being undrafted in most Dynasty rookie drafts
Jaylen Warren (ADP 15.11 RB53) outscores Najee Harris (ADP 4.12 RB11) in Fantasy
Yeah, this is super bold, but if you are going to be a bear, be a grizzly. Warren outperformed Harris in pretty much every metric last year.
2022 Najee Harris vs Jaylen Warren
Rank in () *Player Profiler
Yards created per touch:
Warren: 3.82 (5)
Harris: 2.13 (45)
EPA:
Warren: +26.1 (2)
Harris:-51.7 (154)
True yards per carry:
Warren: 4.7 (12)
Harris: 3.7 (59)
Pre-season usage has signaled a committee backfield with Harris leading the way. Harris should be the goal line back, but look for Warren to make up some ground in the passing game in his quest to overtake Harris in Fantasy.
Result: This was a WOW result. There were a full 11 rounds of ADP difference in this bold prediction, so the hope here was to be directionally correct, fade Najee, and put Warren on the sleeper list. But it actually happened. Warren finished as the RB 30, and Harris finished as the RB 32 in fantasy points.
Now, onto 2024:
Bucky Irving (ADP 199) is the leading rusher for Tampa Bay over Rachaad White (ADP 35) in the second half of the season
Irving is a decisive one-cut runner who was very efficient in college. His .362 missed tackles forced per attempt ranked third in the class, 90.8 PFF rush grade ranked fourth, and yards after contact ranked fifth.
Per Scott Barrett, “Last season, among the 23 running backs that carried the ball at least 200 times, Rachaad White ranked dead last in yards after contact per carry (2.24), missed tackles forced per carry (0.14), *and* rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.41).”
White remains a force in the passing game, and I see him transitioning to a pass-down-only role later in the season.
Amon Ra St. Brown is the WR1 overall in Fantasy
The day after Amon Ra St. Brown was drafted, I posted this on Twitter:
Today I follow that up with another bold prediction for the Sun God. This prediction that he finishes as the WR1 is backed up by his WR10 and WR4 fantasy points per game finishes in the last two years. But it has a lot to do with questions abound for other top wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill was historically efficient last year, but Father Time remains undefeated. Hill is 30 years old and has already suffered a minor thumb injury in training camp. For someone who relies heavily on his athletic ability, that is sure to dissipate as he ages.
I think Justin Jefferson will be just fine, but Sam Darnold is a far cry from Kirk Cousins. Jefferson still has a high floor, but his ceiling is now capped.
CeeDee Lamb is the odds-on favorite to be the WR1 after his historic 2023 and doesn’t have many red flags. I am drafting him above Amon, but only him.
Ja’Marr Chase has been steadfast in his holdout, showing up for camp for just one day before reverting to not practicing as soon as this week.
Garrett Wilson and Drake London are speculative, and Brandon Aiyuk is still holding out.
Alvin Kamara (ADP RB 17) finishes as an RB1 (Top 12) in Fantasy PPG
When are fantasy managers going to learn not to doubt Alvin Kamara? Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are both excellent deep threats. Unfortunately, Derek Carr is no longer a deep-ball thrower.
So, who is going to catch the short and intermediate routes? The answer almost has to be Alvin Kamara. Honestly, I don’t care how Kamara is a rusher, even though it seems the volume will be there with Dennis Allen’s seeming disdain for Kendre Miller.
Kamara was the RB3 in Fantasy PPG last year, and there is no reason he should be drafted at RB17. Kamara has 5 top 5 FPPG finishes in the last 7 years. He represents great value at an ADP of RB17.
Dalton Kincaid and Brock Bowers are the top 2 Dynasty tight ends at years end, leapfrogging Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride
For Kincaid, this is a bet on Josh Allen’s talent. The Bills wide receiver room is below average, and someone needs to soak up those targets and yards. That player will be Dalton Kincaid, who I predict will lead the Bills in receiving yards this year. He is in line for a massive year and is my bet to finish TE1 overall in Fantasy PPG.
Brock Bowers is nothing less than the greatest tight end prospect of all time. He immediately burst onto the scene at a premier football program in college and proved himself an alpha as a freshman. That simply doesn’t happen as a tight end. He followed that up with historic production his remaining years at Georgia. His QB situation is not great, but the Raiders will fix that next year, and as we saw with Drake London and Garrett Wilson this year, the market will respond.
Brock Bowers Dynasty value is in a no-lose situation. If he doesn’t produce, the market blames his QB (See London/Wilson). If he does produce, “he did it with said QB”.
Rashee Rice destroys his Fantasy Pros ADP of WR33 and finishes as a top 20 WR in Fantasy PPG
Rice is the easiest wide receiver pick at his current ADP in redraft leagues. Early in rankings season, it was assumed he would receive some sort of suspension for the 2024 season due to his off-season transgressions. Now, that has all been mostly debunked, and any suspension will almost certainly occur after his trial and be in 2025.
However, the rankings never recovered. This is a player who finished as the WR28 in his rookie season. From Week 11 on, he was the WR14 in fantasy points per game.
Jayden Reed outperforms his Fantasy Pros ADP of WR36 by at least 10 spots
Jayden Reed was another rookie who took some time to be fully indoctrinated into the game plan. This is common for rookies.
However, from Week 10 to Week 18, Reed was the WR10 in fantasy points per game. As the slot receiver, he has the most defined role in the Packer offense. Watson, Wicks, and Doubs are battling for the other roles.
This is also a bet on Jordan Love’s talent, who crushed in his first year starting and got a massive extension as a result.
Malik Nabers breaks the rookie record for targets
Puka Nacua set the rookie record for targets last year with 160, breaking Anquan Boldin’s 20-year-old mark of 150. I predict Malik Nabers will break that record again this year.
Nabers is 1 of only 7 wide receivers to ever score higher than 100 in my WR1 rookie prospect analytical model. The other 6 are Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Ja’Marr Chase, and Larry Fitzgerald. The WR1 analytical model is fantastic at predicting elite wide receiver talent. Nabers scored higher than everyone’s top prospect, Marvin Harrison Jr. I predict Nabers will outperform MHJ this year and beyond.
All 3 Miami Dolphin Running backs finish higher in Fantasy PPG than their Fantasy Pros ADP
De’Von Achane (ADP RB11) broke rushing efficiency charts last year and is now slated to get heavy work in the receiving game for Miami. If he gets the volume, he can challenge everyone’s consensus top 3 running backs: McCaffrey, Hall, and Robinson.
Raheem Mostert (ADP RB25), meanwhile, still seems in line to get a lot of rushing work and red zone carries. He finished last year as the RB4 overall in Fantasy PPG.
If either Achane or Mostert goes down, Jaylen Wright (ADP RB46) will step in. Wright is a burner like Achane and Mostert and can fill either role, making him an ideal handcuff for them.
My annual picks for 3rd round or late Dynasty rookie draft picks to become relevant in fantasy:
Bucky Irving: (Rookie draft ADP33 overall)
See above for the bull case on Bucky Irving.
Tyrone Tracy: (Rookie draft ADP41 overall)
Tracy is a WR turned RB who had eye-popping advanced metrics, ranking in the top 5 in this RB class in missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after contact, and explosive run rate.
Jalen McMillan (Rookie draft ADP32 overall)
McMillan was the forgotten man from the amazing WR group at the U of Washington. Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze got the better NFL draft capital. When he was healthy, he produced at every bit the clip Polk did, though. He also wowed at training camp.
Luke McCaffrey: (Rookie draft ADP34 overall)
Like Tracy, McCaffrey switched positions in college. He started as a quarterback and then converted to wide receiver. The result was that he finished with the highest fantasy points per game started at WR of any player in this entire rookie class, including Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the annual membership here. It truly is the best value in the dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
