Bold prediction articles are some of my favorite types of content to research before drafts. In preparing for my drafts, I always have specific players I want to target who I believe are values vs. their average draft position. Bold prediction articles highlight these players that analysts make cases for being better than their ADP. Do I expect the bold prediction to come true? No. But directionally, the goal is for that player to outperform their ADP. If the bold part of it comes true, that is just the proverbial cherry on top.
Going on record with these bold takes is not for the faint of heart, as it provides receipts in black and white to be used against you in the future. But our goal at DFF is to offer you actionable content to improve your Dynasty teams, not to protect our egos. So away we go.
Disclaimer: I am not advising you to draft these players at their bold prediction. I am advising you to target them ahead of their listed Dynasty ADP.
At this time next year, Daniel Jones (Current ADP 4.09) will have a higher Dynasty value than Dak Prescott (Current ADP 3.01) by a full round
I have professed my love for Daniel Jones all off-season at the expense of being a true outcast within the Dynasty Football Factory family. If you want the 2000-word version of why I am so high on him, you can read my article on him in my Tale of the Tape article. Here is the Cliffs Notes version.
Jones averaged 18.4 FPPG last year to Prescott’s 17.8. Jones has the lowest ADP of any QB under the age of 27 who averaged more than 18 FPPG last year by a full round. Prescott not only had a lower FPPG than Jones but is also four years older. The surface-level analysis dictates Jones is not only the better value at ADP but should be a consideration straight up vs. Prescott’s Dynasty value.
Much of my confidence in Jones materializes in my confidence in Brian Daboll. This man completely transformed Josh Allen from a dreadful early professional performer into a fantasy unicorn. If Jones has 0 change in his rushing or passing yards for last year, all he would need to do to get to Joe Burrow‘s level of fantasy production last year is repeat his rookie year passing TDs of 24. That gets him to 21.6 fantasy points per game. Burrow had 21.7 last year, which put him fourth overall.
Daniel Jones’s receiver target separation was ranked 54th among QBs who played a snap last year. Enter Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt, Parris Campbell, and a full season of Isaiah Hodgins and Wan’Dale Robinson. Waller alone is a massive upgrade at the tight end position over Daniel Bellinger. He is an athletic freak and a defensive matchup nightmare fuel.
James Cook (ADP 9.06 RB 28) is a top 20 RB in Fantasy PPG in 2023
The biggest question with James Cook has always been whether he can handle a large workload. We track pre-season usage with starters to understand how a team plans to deploy their player usage. James Cook played 87.5% of the snaps with starters in pre-season week two. This signals a workhorse-type role.
Last year, Cook was highly efficient with his touches; he just did not get the volume. Cook’s 5.3 True Yards Per Carry ranked 2nd overall amongst all running backs. His 12.1% Breakaway Run Rate was 1st overall. It is doubtful he is used at the goal-line with Josh Allen, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray all more capable short-yardage backs. However, if he gets passing-down usage, Cook has significant receiving upside to more than offset this.
Tyreek Hill (ADP 3.02 WR 9) becomes the first wide receiver in history to go over 2000 yards a season
Okay, so this one is quite bold to be the first to do anything but hear me out. Mike McDaniel’s scheme, combined with the speed of Hill and Jaylen Waddle, is a lethal combination.
Last year, Tyreek Hill led all qualified wide receivers with 3.25 yards per route run. However, Hill was only the WR27 in total routes run. If he maintained his efficiency, he would need 616 routes to eclipse 2000 yards. By contrast, Justin Jefferson had 671.
Cooper Kupp (ADP 4.02 WR 14) leads all WRs not named Tyreek Hill in Fantasy Points Per Game
Cooper Kupp has led all NFL non-quarterbacks in Fantasy Points Per Game each of the last two seasons. Have people forgotten the point of Dynasty is to win titles by accumulating the most Fantasy points? Yes, he is 30, but it’s roughly the same age as Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs.
Kupp is now seven months out from his high ankle sprain. This is not expected to hinder him for the coming season or affect his future performance. In 2021, Kupp accumulated a massive 191 targets and 1947 yards, singlehandedly carrying fantasy teams to titles. He is an easy choice in the fourth and should be a target for any contending team.
Brock Purdy (ADP 9.04) gains a full three rounds of Dynasty value going before pick 6.04 in 2024
I don’t think there is a single player that can return more value on their investment than Purdy. If he simply repeats what he did last year, this time next year we are talking about a top three-round Dynasty asset easy. After all, as a rookie, all he did was come in and average 18.1 Fantasy Points Per Game in the games he started.
This was good for the QB 9 overall, A-S A R-O-O-K-I-E! That is more than Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence, who each go off in the first two rounds of Dynasty startups. That doesn’t even include his 35-point outburst in the next game in the playoffs.
Kyle Shanahan doesn’t care about draft capital. He has proven this over and over again. He will ride that super cheap rookie contract as far as he can. Plus, the 49ers have perhaps the best group of skill position players in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. They are YAC monsters who can make any quarterback’s stats look great.
Jordan Addison (ADP 5.06 vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ADP 4.01 and Quentin Johnston ADP 5.05) is the rookie WR 1 in 2023 Fantasy PPG, and it’s not particularly close
Adam Thielen was second in the NFL in routes run in 2022 to his teammate Justin Jefferson. Thielen has since jettisoned to Carolina to partner with Bryce Young. Jordan Addison is going to see a ton of volume in his absence.
Addison is an elite prospect with a first-round pedigree. First-rounders are expected to contribute immediately. His 23.5 college career fantasy points per game leads all power-five prospects since 2015. He posted an excellent 2.94 receiving yards per team pass attempt.
Rondale Moore (ADP 14.03 WR 61) improves his Dynasty value a full three rounds in 2024
Rondale Moore missed half the season, but he was very productive in the games he played. He had eight or more targets in five of his seven games (in the eighth, he was injured early).
He had at least five receptions in each of those games. He is still only 23 years old and has had an injury-marred start to his career. Expect him to be a short-area safety valve for whoever starts at QB for the Cardinals.
Moore came into the NFL with a pristine profile. His 18-year-old freshman-year breakout was rare and is highly indicative of future NFL success. He averaged 23.4 fantasy points per game in his college career, which would have ranked second for the 2023 class, just one-tenth behind Jordan Addison. For a player who just turned 23 with second-round draft capital and a spectacular college profile to be available in the fourteenth round of Dynasty startups, it is quite the value.
Darren Waller (ADP 9.03 TE 9) leads all tight ends not named Travis Kelce in Fantasy Points Per Game
The only thing seemingly standing in Waller’s way for a monster season is maintaining his health, which has abandoned him the past two seasons. Prior to that, Waller averaged 17.4 Fantasy PPG and finished as the TE 2 in Fantasy PPG.
Waller was handpicked by this new Giant’s regime and excels at crossing routes, which is Daniel Jones’s bread and butter. Per Next GenStats, “Waller had 50 receptions on crossing routes over that time frame (3rd-most among TE). Daniel Jones targeted crossers at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL last season (16.9%).”
Daniel Jones targeted him an absurd 44% of the time in the pre-season. Few tight ends are the number one option for their team. Those that are (Kelce and Andrews) are the elite of the elite.
Diontae Johnson (ADP 8.08 WR 37) will be a Top 15 WR in Fantasy PPG in 2023
Here is the entire list of players with 140 or more targets each of the last three years:
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
And the 26-year-old WR 37 in Dynasty startup drafts, Diontae Johnson.
Diontae’s peripherals were all similar to past years. The big issue is he set the single-season record for most receptions without a TD. Touchdowns aren’t sticky, and he had 15 over the prior two years, so this will bounce back. He also played with a rookie quarterback, typically a recipe for a down year.
Josh Downs (ADP 11.12 WR 49) leads all Colts wide receivers (Pittman ADP 5.11) in receptions as a rookie
Before you read this synopsis, I feel it is important to declare I am well-known for being a Josh Downs truther. Downs is an amazing talent with incredible college production traditionally indicative of a top fantasy producer.
Downs is as sound analytically as they come. If we were to exclude draft capital, he would be one of only two wide receivers in this class who would rank in the top 5 of last year’s wide receiver class based on his analytical profile in my proprietary WR1 Model, which predicts future fantasy success for wide receivers based on historical data.
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is one of the more predictive metrics for future fantasy success in the NFL. Downs 3.52 best season college mark was the top RYPTPA score in this class. He was a model of consistent excellence throughout his college career, which led to a college career fantasy points per game of 20.8, good for third in the class. Downs was one of only two prospects in the top 10 overall in WR1 rating with a weighted dominator above 35%. He easily eclipsed this with a 38.3% mark.
Jaylen Warren (ADP 15.11 RB 53) outscores Najee Harris (ADP 4.12 RB 11) in Fantasy
Yeah, this is super bold, but if you are going to be a bear, be a grizzly. Warren outperformed Harris in pretty much every metric last year.
2022 Najee Harris vs Jaylen Warren
Rank in () *Player Profiler
Yards created per touch:
Warren 3.82 (5)
Harris 2.13 (45)
EPA:
Warren +26.1 (2)
Harris -51.7 (154)
True yards per carry:
Warren 4.7 (12)
Harris 3.7 (59)
Pre-season usage has signaled a committee backfield with Harris leading the way. Harris should be the goal line back, but look for Warren to make up some ground in the pass game in his quest to overtake Harris in Fantasy.
Other quick hitter predictions
Three of the 2023 rookie tight ends are top 10 in Dynasty in August of 2024.
Sam Howell outscores the top two overall picks, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
Three 2024 rookie picks (Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Brock Bowers) become instant top 5 Dynasty picks at their position.
Marvin Mims (ADP 12.03 WR 51) outscores Quentin Johnston (ADP 5.05 WR 19) in Fantasy PPG.
Elijah Moore (ADP 10.11 WR 45) increases in Dynasty value a full two rounds.
Tank Dell (ADP 15.06 WR 69) is the top WR over the second half of the season for the Houston Texans.
Michael Thomas (ADP 13.08 WR 51) is a top 24 Fantasy WR in Fantasy PPG.
These fourth and fifth-round Dynasty rookie draft picks will increase their ADP two full rounds in 2024: Puka Nacua (ADP 18.08 WR 82), Michael Wilson (ADP 16.05 WR 74), Evan Hull (ADP 18.11 RB 64), Sean Tucker (ADP 18.03 RB 62), Demario Douglas (ADP 24.06, WR 108).
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the annual membership here. It truly is the best value in the dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
