PAST PRODUCTION
Austin Ekeler: Los Angeles Charger and defier of the odds. The UDFA out of Western State blew the top off every fantasy analyst’s big board last year by finishing as the RB4. Oh, and he shared the load with Melvin Gordon from weeks 5 onward. He was electrifying every step of the way finishing second among running backs in both catches and receiving yards, plus finishing number one in yards per touch. Ekeler makes his living in PPR leagues due to his ability in the passing game, both as a reliable check-down and a threat out of the backfield where he played 30% of his snaps. How good is he as a receiver? Since 2017, Ekeler is the number one receiving back in the NFL ranked by PFF at 94.2. Numbers two and three on that list? Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Enough said.
2020 OUTLOOK
Austin Ekeler is poised to garner a workload similar to weeks 1-4 last year when Melvin Gordon held out. Melvin Gordon had 162 carries and 55 targets last year. I don’t believe Ekeler will inherit all of that (although 157 targets for a running back in a season would be a sight to behold). Justin Jackson has proven to be a reliable backup and the Chargers drafted Joshua Kelley in the fourth round, but putting either of those backs on the level of Melvin Gordon is baseless. Before either of them start taking away meaningful touches from Ekeler, they’ll have to prove it.
His pace last year in weeks 1-4 extrapolate to 224 carries (only 103 total last year) and 100 targets (108 last year!!). 324 opportunities is a huge ceiling. One that I don’t believe he will get to, but I also don’t believe he needs to be a top-five running back. Ekeler proved it last year with his efficiency. As long as he maintains his passing work, any drop in efficiency has a chance to be erased by his uptick in opportunities in the running game. Here’s a quick reminder of what weeks 1-4 looked like in case he performs at his ceiling: 39, 23, 15, and 29 points. Just for fun, this PPG extrapolates out to 424 points which is 4 points more than Christian McCaffrey’s current season projection on sleeper.app and 119 more points than Saquon Barkley’s current projection.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
The biggest headaches with talented running backs are their contract situations (Dalvin Cook holdout), but Ekeler has just provided fantasy owners with Advil by signing a 4-year deal this offseason. With a contract locked up, a competitive team, and no running back with top-three round draft capital on the team, Ekeler is locked and loaded. He is one of the biggest values in dynasty leagues right now with a third-round ADP. Already proved ceiling is top five, has a bigger workload, top pass-catching running back in the league, there is nothing I do not like about Austin Ekeler.
What do you think about Austin Ekeler this year? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on twitter to let me know! Be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Dynasty Rankings and always be one step ahead of the competition!
