Kansas City Chiefs
What can you say about this team? Although they initially struggled to put away a depleted Patriots team, they are 4-0. And chances are if you have two of these guys on your team… so are you.
Mahomes is the QB5 on the season averaging 27 PPG. But the consistently high weeks are why he is the QB1 overall. He is a plug-and-play each week starter. His rock Travis Kelce at tight end is TE2 on the season, but we can expect that to change back to him being the TE1 as the season goes on.
At running back it gets more interesting. We thought when Damien Williams opted out of the season that Clyde Edwards-Helaire would be handed the keys to the brand new Ferrari and wouldn’t look back. It hasn’t been that way for him so far. Sitting at RB14 in standard leagues behind Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon & Jerick McKinnon, the capital spent by many, especially in redraft this year, hasn’t paid off yet. We can expect it to change as the season winds on and the positive regression for his goal-line work comes into play, but this shows the danger in attempting to build around rookie running backs.
At wide receiver, we are still waiting for the Mecole Hardman breakout many believed was coming. It may be time to pivot from your Hardman shares where possible to one of the buy-low receivers in this or the 2019 class. With Tyreek Hill (currently WR6 in PPR) signed through to 2023, as well as Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire locked up long term, he may be a player that perennially we are paying starter capital for backup potential.
Las Vegas Raiders
Well, what can we say about the Raiders? Sitting at 2-2 four weeks into the season, they pushed the 4-0 Bills to a one-score game.
Preseason, they cut and traded away most of the competition to what should be their number one weapon in Josh Jacobs. Weeks 1 & 2, I was sold: here we go, Gruden is bringing football back with the 30 touch-per-game RB. Jacobs was on pace for nearly 480 touches on the season after two weeks. Weeks 3 & 4, we have seen a regression to the norm for Jacobs as he has gone back to a 19 touch-per-game back. Still better than most of the RBBCs out there but not the fantasy demon we had hoped for when they traded Lynn Bowden Jr. to the Dolphins a week before the season started.
In the receiving game, we have seen glimpses of what Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards can bring in the future, and with Tyrell Williams out for the year with a torn labrum I think we will continue to see just that — glimpses. Darren Waller is clearly the number one receiver in Las Vegas and with Gruden on his 10-year deal and Waller signed through 2023, we need to ask “is this another Eagles team where the players to own aren’t the receivers?”
I would personally be using this opportunity to buy Ruggs and Edwards. These owners are probably scrambling for help as both WRs were meant to be a couple of the rookies to come in and help those teams on the border of playoff contention straight away. It hasn’t happened. This is your chance to go out and trade your older productive receivers for shiny new toys at a discount. The only other receiver worth a stash might be Hunter Renfrow, who whilst you wouldn’t be confident starting, is stringing some productive games together.
What is there to say about Derek Carr? He still has a job and is actually completing an astronomical 73% of his passes with eight TDs and no interceptions. I mean, this isn’t what we expected when they signed Marcus Mariota but it is what we are getting. Maybe Carr is good and there is a reason he has more career MVP votes than Russell Wilson? But I’d be backing off if you can spare him; sell now as we all know how bad he can be.
Denver Broncos
Well, this isn’t where we expected to see them. The Broncos sit at 1-3 and all of a sudden the talk of a Drew Lock vs. Patrick Mahomes showdown has turned into talking about “will Lock be under center in 2021?” But that is the nature of the NFL (Not for Long), and one of the most high-profile jobs in the world (a quarterback in the NFL) comes with pressure.
Drew is still expected to be out until about Week 8 at which point their season may be done. The Denver IR or OUT list includes their starting QB, their WR1, their two-time Pro Bowl RB, two tight ends, two offensive tackles, and their defense is hit just as bad if not worse.
The QB backup situation in Denver post-Flacco isn’t great and probably needed to be addressed prior to the season. Relying on Brett Rypien to get them through this stretch is probably a decision that Elway regrets.
Melvin Gordon has succeeded to an extent in the absence of his timeshare partner Phillip Lindsay. He sits as a top 12 RB in both PPR and standard scoring but is a hard one to gauge value on. If you’re competing, he is a hold for as long as you can; for anyone else trying to sell for true value at this point is close to impossible. Hold, wait, and try to sell for a 2021 first-round pick Weeks 8 or 9 when teams are more comfortable with there finals berth locked up and looking for depth.
Jerry Jeudy is leading the way and is on pace to grab close to 950 yards in his rookie season even with some less than desirable options under center. The only other receiver to note is Noah Fant, but we can all remember the hype on him coming out. He has had moments this year where he has shown what he could be if he can get that consistency we expect of the George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller tier.
Los Angeles Chargers
If there was a moment in the season that sums it up for the Chargers, it would have to be when the doctor punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung. Wow, this isn’t what we expected from this team.
With Austin Ekeler suffering a “serious hamstring strain”, one of the few bright spots in this offense has now been laid low. Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are producing and will continue to do so, but Allen is very much a declining dynasty asset. If you are 1-2 years away from a championship run, he is a sell for what you can get. Henry is producing, but at the price many of us (myself included) paid for him, he isn’t what we had hoped.
Joshua Kelley could be a handcuff that helps a number of teams stay afloat, and if you own him and aren’t in the hunt could see you reap a healthy profit. Sell for a mid-to-early 2021 second-round pick if you can get it, or if you are feeling brave hold and maybe you can get a first.
Outside of Ekeler, Allen, and Henry, there isn’t much in a skill position to get excited about. Mike Williams has probably used up his final chances with many fantasy owners and is now a cut candidate.
Justin Herbert is probably the surprise barrel of the division and for me has become a buy. Herbert has shown a high completion percentage with some wheels and while the TD to INT ratio is unnerving, he is a rookie QB in the NFL. I would be looking to buy where possible for teams looking to move on from the likes of Ryan Tannehill. There is no guarantee that he starts the rest of the year, but he should be seen as a high upside long term play in the league.
Thanks for reading! Reach out to me on Twitter @markbullishere with any fantasy questions.
