Dynasty Football Factory

A Look at the Lines: Thanksgiving Edition

Each week for the last few seasons, we’ve taken a look at the Las Vegas lines for the NFL games and given out our top picks and broke down how those lines could impact the fantasy landscape. We decided to do something a little different this week with Thanksgiving on the horizon. With three games begging for action, this is one of the best gambling days of the year. Spencer Scoled and myself took a look at the Turkey Day games and made our picks for each game, both sides, and totals. So, enjoy your food, family, friends, and football. Hopefully, our picks will help you make some sound gambling decisions too.

 

Spencer Scoled

Chicago Bears -4.0 @ Detroit Lions 45.0

Bears keep rolling against a Lions team that seems to be struggling on both sides of the ball recently. With Kerryon Johnson out, I find it hard to believe much happens on offense. The Bears defense could have their way against this team.
The Bears took it to the Lions a couple of weeks ago, hanging 34 points on them. However, Darius Slay didn’t play that game. With that said, I expect it to be lower scoring and lopsided.

Washington Redskins 40.5 @ Dallas Cowboys -7.0

I don’t love the line, but Washington has so many injuries, and Dallas’ defense looks solid. When a quarterback subs in for an injured starter, more often than not, they seem to come crashing down back to Earth. I think  Colt McCoy is better than what people think, but I can see the Dallas defense being a nightmare for him.
The Redskins have been decent on defense as well and the Cowboys haven’t been lighting the world on fire with their offense. I like the under.

Atlanta Falcons 60.0 @ New Orleans Saints -13.0

It’s a huge spread against a quarterback who is playing lights out, but they just haven’t been scoring consistently enough to warrant covering this spread. New Orleans has been keeping its foot to the floor in every game, averaging 43.5 points in their last 4 games. Brees is playing at an incredible level, and Michael Thomas can do no wrong (Plus Tre’Quan breakout last week!).
The Saints should be able to hang another 43+ on this Falcons defense. Matt Ryan and company should do more than enough to push this total over.
 
Bears -4
Bears/Lions Under 45.0
Cowboys -7.0
Cowboys/Redskins Under 40.5
Saints -13.0
Falcons/Saints Over 60.0

 

John Di Bari

Chicago Bears 45 @ Detroit Lions +4

Everything tells me that I should take the Bears here, so I’m going with the Lions. Every few years, there is a team I just cannot get a read on, and I pick wrong every single time. The Lions are emerging as that team for me. I’ve been wrong each time I’ve bet them, so if I like the Bears, that tingles my spidey-senses and reminds me to go against my initial instinct. I see the Bears winning, but not by 4. I would also normally go with the over here too, but I see it being a little more run-heavy than most would expect- resulting in the clock being milked all game and time running out before either team can do a ton of damage offensively.

Washington Redskins 40.5 @ Dallas Cowboys -7.0

I liked the Cowboys to disappoint right up until Alex Smith broke his leg. I don’t see any way the Colt McCoy-led Redskins stay close in this game with the Cowboys’ momentum riding high in recent weeks. I lean towards the over here too. At only 40.5, all we would need is a single defensive score to tip the odds in our favor. I think there is a real chance that we see decent offensive numbers from the Cowboys with a defensive score mixed in, pushing us over the over total.

Atlanta Falcons 60.0 @ New Orleans Saints -13.0

13 points is a lot, but the Saints offense is particularly good at one of the Falcons’ biggest weaknesses; Pass-catching running backs. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram should run (and receive) wild in this contest. I suspect the Saints jump out to an early lead and the Falcons struggle trying to stay in this game. As a result, I think it comes in just under the total of 60. It’s going to be close and a nail-biter for under bettors, but I feel like that’s the right side in this one.
Lions +4
Bears/Lions Under 45.0
Cowboys -7.0
Cowboys/Redskins Over 40.5
Saints -13.0
Falcons/Saints under 60.0

 

 

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jdibari

Chicagoan living in Las Vegas. Fantasy Football writer & Director of In-Season Analysis for Dynasty Football Factory, blogger for USFantasy and contributor to TheFakeHockey. Member FSWA.

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