DFF Draft Coverage: DeVonta Smith to the Eagles

DeVonta Smith | Alabama 6’0”   166 lbs.   11/14/1998 (Age 22)

DeVonta Smith was drafted 10th overall by the Philadelphia Eagles, becoming the third wide receiver in the 2021 NFL Draft.

College Production

In his four years at Alabama, Smith accumulated 235 receptions for 46 total TDs and nearly 4000 yards (3965). He was extremely productive in college and surpassed even Ja’Marr Chase’s impressive 2019 season this past year. Even with two first-rounders on the team in 2019, Smith was able to post a 1000-yard season, giving him a breakout age of 20.8. He had a college dominator of 51.3%, good enough to place him in the 96th percentile. Add that to a target share of 34.6% which put him in the 95th percentile. His catch rate over the last two seasons was nearly 80% (79.1, 79.6). DeVonta Smith was a beast in college, and he has the  production to back it up.

While I’m sure he’ll be labeled “slant boy” by some, Smith is an excellent route runner. He had success running a variety of routes in college. He uses a quick release to get off of coverage and is best when he gets the ball in his hands quickly. Smith’s long strides and football IQ create enough separation for him to work.

Athletic Testing

Smith has yet to test at either of the Alabama Pro Days, leaving us with nothing but measurements of 6’0” and 166 lbs. numbers that translate to a BMI of 22.5. In some analytics circles, that’s going to get him labeled as a bust, but his college production more than moves him out of that bucket for me. While BMI is often brought up and linked to injury, the fact of the matter is there is no correlation between the two at all. With a success rate of 78.9% against press coverage, clearly Smith’s size did not hold him back. In order for Smith to be a success story in the NFL, he’ll have to be an outlier when it comes to his size. Luckily, I think he is.

Draft Analysis

Smith was selected with the 10th pick by the Eagles after they traded with the Cowboys to move up two spots. The Eagles likely made this move worried Smith would go at 11th to the Giants.

While the Eagles have been the kiss of death for many a wide receiver over the last few years, Smith should be able to immediately work his way onto the field. He will likely be the possession receiver for Jalen Hurts, a QB he caught only a handful of passes from during their time together at Alabama. Outside of Jalen Te

Fantasy Insights

Recently, JJ Zachariason covered what goes into a 1st round WR bust. While Smith checks one box as a late-declare, he absolutely smashes any worry because of his consistent college production. Smith should jump into a role that sees a decent volume, and he could potentially become a target hog within his offense. His YAC ability will also give him a nice floor for fantasy going forward. While Smith doesn’t immediately jump into the conversation of top-24 WRs, he is close.

Smith should come off the board as the 2nd or 3rd WR in rookie drafts depending on how you feel about Rashod Batemon. I expect to see him going as high as 4th in non-Superflex leagues. While Smith doesn’t have the size or explosive qualities of Ja’Marr Chase, I think he has a reasonable floor and could be a consistent WR8-15 for years to come. With his age, college production, and draft capital, Smith should be a WR that retains his value and actually has the ability to surpass it moving forward.

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