1QB Dynasty Startup First Round: Part 1

Intro

With the dynasty offseason in full swing, I wanted to give everyone a quick look into my dynasty startup first-round. I know the top players aren’t usually controversial, but I believe it’s essential to understand why particular players carry such a high dynasty value. Also, I won’t include any 2021 rookie players or picks. I don’t see a Saquon Barkley-type prospect that could crack the first round of startups this year, at least not without a perfect landing spot and draft capital. 

I’ll cover the first six players in this article and then the second group of six in a follow-up piece. I want to give each player enough space, and I don’t want to squeeze all 12 into one article. With that said, let’s jump into the list!

The Top 12

Christian McCaffrey

I think we all know that McCaffrey was a huge disappointment this season due to various injuries. McCaffrey only played in three games, although he totaled 59 carries, 225 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns in those contests. He also caught 17 of 19 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey averaged 30.1 PPR points/game, far more than any other running back, albeit on a limited sample size.

In 2019, McCaffrey broke fantasy football, averaging 29.5 PPR points per game. For context, Dalvin Cook finished second that season with 20.9 in that category. McCaffrey only turns 25 years old in June, and the Panthers cannot escape from his contract until at least 2023. Also, he played in all 16 games in each of his first three seasons. Given his game-breaking upside, I still rate CMC as my dynasty 1.01.

Jonathan Taylor

I recently covered Jonathan Taylor in a dynasty rookie profile, so I won’t completely rehash that article here. However, I want to point out a few relevant points from that piece. Taylor finished with 1,169 rushing yards in 2020, third in the NFL. Even though some people remember Taylor struggling during the season, he completed a solid overall year, especially for a rookie.

Before the 2020 NFL Draft, most people considered Taylor their top running back in the rookie class. He received a strong landing spot in Indianapolis, and he had the rookie year we wanted to see. I also loved that Taylor proved himself as a pass-catcher, catching 36 of 39 targets for 299 yards and a touchdown. Taylor recently turned 22 years old, so he has a long shelf life ahead of him. He’s a solid choice at 1.02.

Justin Jefferson

Similar to Taylor, I covered Jefferson in a recent dynasty rookie profile. I won’t just rewrite that article, but I want to emphasize a couple of salient points on Jefferson. He had 1,400 yards as a rookie! No, that’s not a typo, folks, and think for a second about what that means. I love players like A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, but neither has ever recorded 1,400 yards in a season. Neither of those players even broke 1,100 yards as a rookie, let alone 1,400.

Jefferson doesn’t even turn 22 years old until June. Imagine if he starts to grow into the NFL with a real offseason and if he begins to develop further and refine his game. Unlike previously hyped young receivers, Jefferson has been a WR1 in his only season, and he has no warts or projection in his profile. I am 100% comfortable with Jefferson as my dynasty WR1, and I think this ranking becomes a consensus before too long.

Saquon Barkley

I seem to have enjoyed writing about top assets recently, as I also wrote a dynasty profile on Saquon Barkley a few weeks ago. As a Giants’ fan, I have a special investment in Barkley’s success, although I won’t let that fandom bias me in any way. Unfortunately, Barkley’s last two seasons have suffered from injuries. In 2019, he struggled through a high-ankle sprain, and in 2020, he tore his ACL in Week 2.

It is entirely understandable if dynasty owners have some fears surrounding Barkley’s injuries. I believe that Barkley is the most talented and complete running back in the league, and he finished in a dead heat for the RB1 overall with Todd Gurley in his 2018 rookie season. I hope that Barkley returns to form, especially since he only turns 24 in February. If Barkley returns to training camp fully healthy, I might even move Barkley back to #2 overall behind only McCaffrey. He has that much upside and talent.

D.K. Metcalf

I haven’t discussed Metcalf and his value in detail recently, so let’s dive a bit deeper into his career thus far. The Seahawks selected Metcalf with the 64th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. They expected Metcalf to complement incumbent top receiver Tyler Lockett as part of a dynamic receiving duo for Russell Wilson.

However, Metcalf did more than that. He recorded 58 receptions on 100 targets for 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Lockett did outproduce him, but most dynasty owners saw that Metcalf would be the Seahawks’ eventual top receiver. Then, Metcalf took a second-year leap, putting up 83 receptions, 1,303 yards, and 10 touchdowns in his second season.

Metcalf recently turned 23 in December, so he has a full career ahead of him. I know that Russell Wilson struggled a bit down the stretch, and Metcalf also had some down numbers in the second half of the season. But, I can’t ignore Metcalf’s physical traits and statistical progression. Plus, Wilson is an excellent quarterback, and he will find a way to deliver Metcalf the ball. I’m happy with Metcalf as my dynasty WR2, especially since he’s played all 32 possible games thus far in his career.

A.J. Brown

I see Brown as a similar dynasty asset to Metcalf. Both players were second-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, although Brown went a few spots earlier at 51st overall. Brown also broke out as a rookie, forming a great connection with Ryan Tannehill. With a second-half surge, Brown put up 52 catches on 84 targets for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns.

Then, Brown also progressed in his second season. In only 14 games, Brown improved to 70 receptions, 1,075 yards, and 11 touchdowns, even though he only had 106 targets. Brown is also 23 years old, and he turns 24 in June, making him a few months older than Metcalf. Both Brown and Metcalf also play in run-first offenses, adding to the two players’ similarities.

However, I give the slight edge to Metcalf over Brown for a couple of reasons. Metcalf saw more target volume in both of his seasons, and he’s remained completely healthy. In contrast, Brown seems to disappear from the Titans’ game plan from time to time, and he struggled with a few injuries during the 2020 season. It’s just splitting hairs, though, and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who preferred Brown over Metcalf.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.