Introduction
Now that the 2020 fantasy season has ended, it’s time for one of my favorite parts of the year: the dynasty off-season. This is the time to begin to assess your rosters’ strengths/weaknesses, evaluate draft capital, and gather a general game-plan for the next few months. The purpose of this series is to give you an in-depth look at one player I am buying in dynasty, and one player I am selling. This list will change as the NFL Draft and NFL Free Agent period shake out.
BUY: Aaron Rodgers
The Aaron Rodgers “I’ll make you regret drafting my backup in the first round” tour has turned him into the league leader in touchdown passes, and current front-runner for the NFL MVP. Everyone on the planet knew that the Packers needed to draft a wideout in the 2020 NFL Draft. Shockingly, they decided to trade up four spots in the first round to take QB Jordan Love. Love played a whopping 0% of the Packers’ snaps this season.
Despite the Packers ignoring actual needs in the draft and free agency, Aaron Rodgers would not be denied. He finished 2020 with the 15th highest single-season passing touchdown rate in NFL history. His 9.1% passing touchdown rate shatters Rodgers’ career average of 6.3%. With the help of the most efficient supporting cast in the league (ranked #1 in supporting cast efficiency), Rodgers lead the league in fantasy points per drop-back (0.66) and touchdown passes (48). The one area Rodgers struggled in 2020: interceptable passes (13 on 525 attempts).
The Packers’ play-calling also played a big part in Rodgers’ incredible season. Ranked #3 in deep ball attempts per game and #7 in red zone attempts, the Packers were aggressive on offense in 2020.
The supporting cast for Green Bay was mostly viewed as lackluster prior to the start of the season. An inconsistent Marquez Valdes-Scantling, questions marks at the tight end position, and a predictable focal point of the Packers’ offense that defenses could focus on in Davante Adams. It seemed like Rodgers would struggle to find success. However, Robert Tonyan exploded for three touchdowns in Week 4 en route to an 11 touchdown performance in 2020. MVS also took a small step forward and delivered a couple of big-play touchdowns that helped inflate Rodgers’ numbers.
You also cannot ignore the impact Davante Adams and Aaron Jones had on Rodgers. Finishing as the WR1 in both standard and PPR formats, Adams grabbed 115 receptions and 18 touchdowns. Aaron Jones finished as the RB5 in both standard and PPR formats, scoring 11 touchdowns and nearly 1,500 scrimmage yards.
What Does This Mean for 2021?
I am buying Aaron Rodgers in dynasty formats in 2021. He has shown what kind of season he can have with the current supporting cast. The Packers will need to re-sign key pieces Robert Tonyan and Aaron Jones this offseason. Adding a wideout in the draft or re-signing Allen Lazard will also be a top priority. I am confident that they will do one of the two, if not both. In that case, Aaron Rodgers will head into 2021 with another solid group of skill players around him. Paired with an aggressive coach and a defense that could keep the Packers in close games forces them to continue their aggressive approach. I expect big things for Aaron Rodgers in 2021.
SELL: James Robinson
The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the fantasy football world with the release of Leonard Fournette during training camp. He had just come off a 2019 campaign with 365 touches. Who was going to lead the Jaguars’ backfield in 2020? Most thought Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson would shoulder the load, but undrafted rookie James Robinson started 2020 with back-to-back 16-carry games. The rookie running back out of Illinois State had earned the job in training camp and never looked back. He ended 2020 with 289 touches, 1,414 scrimmage yards, and 10 total touchdowns.
It is no secret the Jaguars wanted to lean on the rookie. He ranked #1 in the NFL in opportunity share (85.2%) with carry counts falling below 16 just four times in 15 games played. Robinson handled 72% of the Jaguars’ team rushing attempts. He finished as the RB7 in both standard and PPR scoring and had elite production when compared to any other waiver wire pickup this season.
Volume is king in fantasy football. James Robinson got the workload of a top fantasy running back option. His 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity (66th in NFL) and 4.9 yards per touch (#32 in NFL) point to a more average ability to create fantasy production without elite volume. My biggest fear with James Robinson is that his workload will regress. I believe the Jaguars will either sign a FA runner or draft one with one of their top four draft picks.
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter 2021 with over $77M in cap space (#1 in the NFL). Some notable Running back free agents in 2021 include Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake, James Conner, and Chris Carson. Combine that with 10 draft picks NFL Draft, and the #1 overall pick. With four of their draft picks being in the first and second round, we can only assume the Jaguars would spend one of those picks on a running back.
What Does This Mean for 2021?
Do not hear what I am not saying. James Robinson is a good running back and deserves a shot to be the starter in Jacksonville. If you choose to hold Robinson for 2021, you are betting that the Jags will skip the loaded 2021 FA RB class, AND skip taking Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, or Chuba Hubbard. The window to sell James Robinson high will close faster as we approach the FA/Draft season. His value will never be higher than right now, strike now while the iron is hot. Do not let Jacksonville sign a veteran or draft a rookie and tank his value while on your dynasty rosters.
Thank you for reading! You can find the rest of my work at DFF and follow me on Twitter @FF_Derrick. Reach out to me anytime with anything fantasy football related! Seize the moment! Say less, do MORE!
