Intro
As usual, I’m trying a different type of article this week. I will go through each of the early slate games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. If I get a chance, I might look at the rest of the games in another article, but I wanted to start with only the first set. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!
Giants vs. Washington Football Team
Giants
For the Giants, I’m most excited to examine quarterback Daniel Jones in this game. To put it simply, Jones has played horribly in 2020, and he needs to show something against Washington’s poor defense. If Jones puts up another stinker in this game, I’m going to start to have extreme doubts that he will be the Giants’ unquestioned starting quarterback in 2021.
Washington
I’m most interested in whether Washington will finally use rookie Antonio Gibson as a workhorse back. They’ve moved away from two-down grinder Peyton Barber, but they’re still splitting the backfield between Gibson and J.D. McKissic. I would love to see Gibson have a real breakout game against the weak Giants’ defense, and I’ll be watching closely to see if he can do just that.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Patriots
As usual, the Patriots’ backfield split is the main storyline. Sony Michel is on both the injured reserve and the COVID-19 reserve list, so he will miss significant time. I expect James White to play his usual pass-catching role, but I want to see the carry distribution between Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead. Harris saw 17 carries for 100 yards in Week 4, although Burkhead also had 11 carries for 45 yards. I would love to see Harris with increased touches, but you never know here.
Broncos
I’m curious to see how Drew Lock looks in his return from a shoulder injury. He won’t have Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, or KJ Hamler in Week 6, and Courtland Sutton is on injured reserve with an ACL tear. Therefore, Lock will need to make do with Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Phillip Lindsay as his primary weapons. I’m not confident in Lock, but I’m hoping he proves me wrong. He needs to play well down the stretch to clinch this starting job in 2021.
Titans vs. Texans
Titans
I want to see how the Titans handle their backfield, as they recently placed third-round rookie Darrynton Evans on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. They have Jeremy McNichols as a backup and pass-catcher, but I would love to see Derrick Henry get more involved in the passing game. I’m looking for Henry to have a monster game here, although his snap share is what I’m specifically interested in seeing.
Texans
For the Texans, I want to know what to think about Brandin Cooks. After Week 1, Cooks has seen 83% or more of offensive snaps in the following four games. However, he’s had two strong games and two weak games, with a goose egg in Week 4. Cooks had a massive Week 5 after the Texans fired head coach Bill O’Brien, so I want to know if that was the start of an upward trend or a mirage.
Colts vs. Bengals
Colts
I would finally love to see the Colts unleash Jonathan Taylor as a workhorse back. For some reason, the Colts continue to involve Jordan Wilkins on the ground, giving him 5.6 carries/game. However, Wilkins is questionable for Week 6 with a calf injury, which might open the door for Taylor to see a full workload. Taylor has disappointed after Marlon Mack’s Achilles tear in Week 1, but this could be his massive breakout game.
Bengals
With the Bengals, I’m most interested in rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and his progression in Year 1. He had a rough game in Week 5 against the Ravens’ monster defense, where he looked like a rookie on the field. While the Colts are also a strong defense, they aren’t on the same level as the Ravens. Hopefully, Burrow can find some chemistry with rookie Tee Higgins and slot receiver Tyler Boyd and stop trying to throw to washed-up veteran A.J. Green.
Vikings vs. Falcons
Vikings
Of course, this game represents Alexander Mattison’s first chance to realize his handcuff value behind Dalvin Cook. Last season, Cook missed two games at the end of the season, but Mattison was also injured at the same time, allowing Mike Boone to take the starter’s role. Last week, Mattison excelled in Cook’s place, taking 20 carries for 112 yards while adding three receptions for 24 yards. But, I’m curious how the Vikings deploy Mattison this week, given that they game planned with Mattison as the starter.
Falcons
The Falcons are 0-5, and they already fired their head coach and general manager. Julio Jones is off the injury report for this game, but I think we all know what Jones represents at this point in dynasty leagues. However, I need to see whether Matt Ryan is going to be the Falcons’ long-term quarterback. I believe he will turn it around with Jones back in the lineup, but if he doesn’t, he could be elsewhere in 2021. Ryan is essentially playing to save his starting job in Atlanta, as the Falcons will select Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields if they can, sending Ryan to another team.
Eagles vs. Ravens
Eagles
I want to closely follow wide receiver Travis Fulgham, who broke out for 10 receptions, 152 yards, and a touchdown last week. The Eagles still won’t have Alshon Jeffery or DeSean Jackson in this game, which could mean that Fulgham sees a significant role once again. However, I’d never heard of Fulgham before last week, so his big game could have been a fluke. We’ll find out this week, although the Ravens are a tough matchup.
Ravens
Every week, I’m focused on the Ravens’ backfield, expressly when they turn to rookie J.K. Dobbins as their starter. Dobbins is third on the Ravens in carries with 16, compared to 45 for Mark Ingram and 34 for Gus Edwards. Dobbins does lead the backfield in targets and receptions, so he’s at least the third-down back. The issue here is that both Ingram and Edwards are also playing well. Dobbins is more explosive, but there’s no reason for Ingram or Edwards to see the bench. Keep an eye on the snap and carry counts here each week, though.
Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers
Of course, all eyes are on rookie Chase Claypool, who exploded for a massive game in Week 5. He had seven receptions for 110 yards and three touchdowns, and he had three carries for six yards and a touchdown. Diontae Johnson will miss this game due to injury, leaving Claypool as a locked-in outside starter opposite James Washington, with JuJu Smith-Schuster in the slot. If Claypool has another strong performance, I might have to reevaluate this receiving corps. At this moment, I still have Smith-Schuster, Johnson, then Claypool in my dynasty rankings, but that order could change very quickly.
Browns
There isn’t too much I’m particularly watching on the Browns. Baker Mayfield will play this game through an unclear rib or shoulder injury, so I guess I’m curious how he handles that adversity. Hopefully, he plays well anyway, but I’m not expecting a strong performance against the Steelers. If he proves me wrong, I might have to begin to consider Mayfield as a reliable long-term quarterback asset, at least in superflex leagues. He’ll likely never have fantasy QB1 upside, though.
Panthers vs. Bears
Panthers
Don’t look now, but the Panthers are 3-2, having won all three of their games since Christian McCaffrey’s high ankle sprain. However, my eyes are on the receiving corps, precisely the target split between Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Anderson has far more targets, receptions, and yards on the season than Moore, but Moore still carries more dynasty value. If Moore continues to play behind Anderson, I’ll continue lowering Moore down my dynasty rankings. Perhaps Moore isn’t a true WR1 in the NFL, and he shouldn’t carry dynasty WR1 value.
Bears
I’m fully locked-in on David Montgomery in this game. Like 2019, Montgomery has shown no efficiency on the ground, averaging 3.9 YPC. He has played a far more significant role as a receiver, although the Bears did lose scatback Tarik Cohen to a torn ACL. If Montgomery cannot succeed against the Panthers’ putrid rushing defense, I might have to accept that he’s not that talented. This game will be very telling for Montgomery’s long-term dynasty value.
Jaguars vs. Lions
Jaguars
The Jaguars might have won Week 1 versus the Colts, but they’ve lost the last four games, leaving them at 1-4. Quarterback Gardner Minshew is auditioning for this starting job moving forward, as the Jaguars would love to select a top quarterback from the 2021 class. If Minshew can’t win at home versus the Lions, I would start to bet on the Jaguars having a different starter shortly. Minshew’s job is on the line in each game at this point.
Lions
Coming out of their bye, I want to see if the Lions finally decide to involve D’Andre Swift more as a rusher. Swift has 13 receptions on 16 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown, although many fantasy owners remember his terrible dropped touchdown a few weeks ago. However, Swift only has 12 carries in four games, behind both Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson. Swift is by far the most talented running back here so, hopefully, head coach Matt Patricia decides to do the right thing and get Swift on the field. Unfortunately, given Patricia’s track record, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
