The Injury
In Week 1, superstar Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas suffered a “high ankle injury.” While details have come out slowly, the Saints now expect Thomas potentially to miss multiple weeks, and they could place him on injured reserve. If Thomas goes to IR, he will miss three games.
At the very least, Thomas will almost certainly miss the Saints’ Monday night game against the Raiders. Whether he plays or not, you likely can’t rely on him because he will be a game-time decision on Monday night. If you have Thomas, I would hope he sits out and doesn’t try to play through it. Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara had the same injury in 2019 and came back too quickly. You don’t want Thomas to do the same and miss the rest of 2020.
Thomas in Redraft
In redraft leagues, you don’t have any choice. You spent a first-round pick on Thomas, and now you have to hold onto him. Don’t bother trying to trade him because you won’t get any appropriate value. Slide Thomas into an IR spot, assuming your league has one, and do your best to replace him. I’m not going to lie to you here. If Thomas misses multiple games, it’s a death blow to your team. But, unfortunately, it’s part of the game.
Thomas in Dynasty
Similar to redraft formats, there’s nothing you can do with Thomas in dynasty leagues right now. This injury will not be a long-term concern, and I expect Thomas to return to full strength at some point later in the NFL season. Therefore, you cannot sell low on the #1 dynasty wide receiver and take a massive value loss. Just hold onto him for now and wait for more information.
Saints’ Offense in Redraft
Emmanuel Sanders is the most significant beneficiary of Thomas’ absence, as he will step into the Saints’ WR1 role while Thomas is out. He’ll be a solid WR3 during that period. I also believe that Jared Cook might see a few more targets. I didn’t love Cook throughout the offseason, but he’s a no-doubt TE1 until Thomas returns.
I don’t expect Thomas’ injury to affect the Saints’ other offensive weapons too strongly outside of Sanders and Cook. Alvin Kamara is a stud RB1, and nothing changes for him. However, I do expect the Saints to rely a bit more on their running game without Thomas. Therefore, Latavius Murray could present FLEX value more often than before Thomas went down.
I wouldn’t bother to claim Tre’Quan Smith in most redraft leagues. If Thomas were out for the season, I might look Smith’s way, but Thomas will certainly return by Week 7 at the latest. Smith failed for two seasons as the Saints’ WR2 behind Thomas, so I doubt he suddenly succeeds now.
Dynasty Moves
While there isn’t much to do in redraft leagues, this injury presents an excellent window to make some transactions in dynasty leagues. Now is the time to sell-high on Sanders. Sanders turned 33 years old in March, and you might finally be able to acquire a second-round pick in exchange for Sanders. I would capitalize on the recent news and move on from Sanders.
Like Sanders, I would use this opportunity to get rid of Smith. I don’t like him as a prospect, and he’s done nothing throughout his career. Smith only had 18 receptions on 25 targets in 2019, after recording 28 catches as a rookie. The only reason Smith has any dynasty intrigue is that he’s caught 10 touchdowns on 47 receptions.
Smith’s touchdown efficiency likely comes from having Drew Brees as his quarterback. Brees will almost certainly retire after the 2020 season, so Smith will have a new quarterback in 2021. Smith, therefore, has little to no long-term dynasty value. I’d be happy to sell Smith for a future third-round pick.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
