The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook.
In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Putting Hunter Renfrow on this list of players was hard at first. But, try to alter your perspective of what a breakout wide receiver is for your dynasty team. It’s not always the breakout of someone who goes from nothing to a league-leading wide receiver. It can also be the potential of a wide receiver turning into a consistently reliable option with a safe floor, to offer your team a baseline at the position. Renfrow fits the flex role with ease. He is always offering the same amount of fantasy production from week to week. With the occasional touchdown mixed in to occasionally boost your team to victory. To fully accept the possibility of Renfrow being a “Breakout” you have to dive into his stats from his rookie season. And then look at how his situation has changed drastically from this time last year.
Last year Renfrow played in thirteen games, only started in four, and was injured three games out of the season. Throughout the thirteen games, he played the accumulated 71 targets and 49 receptions with 604 yards and four TDs. If given another three games at that pace, he would’ve finished amongst the likes of Metcalf and McLaurin in targets and receptions. The obvious caveat is that he doesn’t have as great of an efficiency per target or per reception as Metcalf or McLaurin. And he will be a volume-dependent receiver going forward. If we look at Renfrow as the PPR-dependent, low-touchdown-total, and low-yards-per-reception receiver that we assume he will be, then I think most will miss on the value he has to offer your team. Look at Jarvis Landry for an example of what could be with Renfrow’s second season.
Landry went from under 800 yards to over 1,100 yards in his second season simply due to his involvement in the offense increasing. Landry has never been a high-touchdown-total receiver and has never been considered an elite wide receiver by any means. But, his fantasy production is consistently undervalued year after year. Trading for Renfrow should be relatively easy. Do so and you will have consistent WR2/WR3 production for years to come.
Renfrow was a primary option on a team that had no one to go to after Antonio Brown‘s departure. The Raiders were left with Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller as the main options in the passing offense. Renfrow was drafted in the fifth round to fill the slot role for Jon Gruden’s offense. Keelan Doss was being featured in Hard Knocks as a potential wide receiver option for the team going forward. This was due to their lack of options at the position at that time. Fast-forward to this offseason and the Raiders have added to the position, allowing Renfrow to breathe in the passing game. Rather than being a part of an offense that struggles across the board.
The additions of Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs in the receiving room will open up the middle of the field for Renfrow to operate as intended. Being just shy of 70% catch rate put Renfrow tied for 7th highest with plenty of other NFL talent around the league, in just his first NFL season. Consider adding Renfrow for cheap to your dynasty roster so you don’t have to stress over your flex position. Depth wins championships and you can add depth to your fantasy roster for pretty cheap with Hunter Renfrow.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Considered a big-play-dependent type of receiver, with his production typically coming through chunk plays in an offense that is run-first, might make you believe Marquise Brown may not be able to pick up where he left off his rookie season. Yet, considering the offense with Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and incoming rookie J.K. Dobbins heading the number one rushing attack from a year ago (the next closest team had almost 1000 less rushing yards), it only allows for Hollywood to continue to thrive in getting behind defenses while they’re focused on the ground attack. The Ravens have shown they are willing to adapt to their player’s best strengths. Not only does Hollywood beat defenses deep with speed, but he also has shown a knack for finding the end zone.
When defenses honed in on Andrews and Jackson, it would only leave Brown open to exploit them with his incredible speed and ability to find space on routes. We should expect to see more of the same moving forward.
In most cases, boom or bust receivers are exactly what their title indicates. They either explode for a big game that wins you the week or leave you a goose egg in the scoring column which simply frustrates fantasy owners for the entire season. Most big-play wide receivers fall under this consideration since they need the long touchdown to make their fantasy scores matter. Of these wide receivers, I believe we could label one as the face of the group. DeSean Jackson is the epitome of a deep threat wide receiver that causes defense headaches. Because all it takes is one play by him for them to lose the game.
In most cases, wide receivers never fully become what DeSean Jackson has during his time in the league. But, Marquise Brown may be the exception given that he has a similar skill set and role in his offense. Jackson broke a thousand yards in his second season and had 9 touchdowns. It isn’t out of the question that if Marquise Brown can start all 16 games, as opposed to the 11 that he started in 2019, he will be able to top a thousand yards with ease. Or near that, since he is the highest draft capital wideout on the team.
Mark Andrews is the number one option in the passing attack at Tight End. But, outside of that, there are a lot of question marks in the receiving committee for Baltimore: two second-year wideouts in Boykin and Brown, a veteran Willie Snead, and a pair of rookies in Duvernay and Proche. This team will most certainly lean on the run to move the offense again. Yet, their coach defends Lamar as a pocket passer. I’m sure he will want to prove that the future of the franchise at the position can do it all. Expect the offense to regress in rushing totals, and balance out in the passing department, leaving more targets for Marquise Brown.
Only receiving 71 targets in 2019, and turning it into 46 catches for 584 yards and seven TDs leaves a lot of room for Brown to be considered a breakout in the NFL. It will be a big leap for sure. But, this offense will force defenses to focus on the rushing attack. As long as Brown is healthy, he will continue to outrun the defenses for big plays while being ignored.
Conclusion
As the NFL turns towards dynamic offenses that feature aerial attacks of all kinds, we will more than likely see wideouts breaking out earlier than the season before. It used to be that wideouts were not as important as a running back that could handle a heavy workload. Now it is quite obvious a dynamic receiver is worth more than a volume monster halfback. 2nd-year wideouts this season will prove the theory that the NFL is changing rapidly. At this rate, I don’t even feel bold telling you to get out in front of it or that it is happening. But, do your best to grab some of these young wide receiver talents for your dynasty rosters before it is too late. It won’t be long before they’re the players we’re comparing incoming rookies or emerging talents to.
Join me in Part 3 of this series, where I look at A.J. Brown and Darius Slayton. You can read Part 1 of the series (D.K. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin) here.
Feel free to follow me @DFF_MattBull and leave any comments or questions about your team.
