The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook.
In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks got a steal with the D.K. Metcalf pick in last year’s draft. The ninth wideout selected in the class, but arguably more talented than the rest. His rookie year was quite the entrance into the league. He was a hundred yards shy of breaking a thousand yards in his first campaign. Metcalf came into the NFL emitting the stigma that he was only a raw talent able to stretch the field on deep routes, lacking skill in the route tree. Regressing from 21.9 yards per reception to 15.5 shows that he was used as a field stretcher but that he slowly started to develop his skills across the field. This counters what non-believers said when the Seahawks drafted him 64th overall. Having only 58 receptions on 100 targets, he didn’t necessarily maximize his potential. With further time in the offense, he should demonstrate continued development.
Coming out of college, playerprofiler.com compared Metcalf to Andre Johnson. If such comparison sticks, monstrous progression can be anticipated in upcoming seasons. Johnson had a long career where he surpassed 1,000 yards seven times in his 12 seasons with the Texans. If Metcalf’s production is anything similar to Johnson’s, then it’ll be a beneficial move having him on your team for fantasy.
The hope is that D.K Metcalf will expand his role in the offense and solidify the number one role while surpassing Tyler Lockett. I am optimistic for a breakout campaign. And optimistic about the probability of Metcalf crossing the thousand-yard threshold that most fantasy players look for in a solid WR2. However, I do not expect him to become the focal point of this offense this season by any means. That doesn’t mean the breakout isn’t possible. But the Seahawks, under Pete Carroll, have never been a consistent passing team. And Lockett is currently the number one passing option on this team.
However, with the ever-evolving NFL moving toward aerial attacks for offenses, the number two options on several teams are becoming more fantasy relevant. In time, Metcalf can surpass Lockett because he offers a familiar, deep-threat skillset. However, he combines this with a bigger-bodied frame made for possession style catches and game-breaking yards.
As Metcalf develops, he will become the target to acquire from this offense. An easy comparison is Michael Gallup‘s 2019 season. Gallup was not the focal point of a run-first offense in his second year in the league. But, he was still able to post 1,100 yards and six TDs. If D.K. could have added 200 yards to his rookie stat line, we would be looking at him in the same light as we are A.J. Brown this offseason. Posting 11.6 fantasy points per game last year, with a statistical catch rate of 70.7%, and placing 16th in yards per target, it only seems like things are pointing up for Metcalf to continue excelling in the downfield, contested-catch type of plays.
Seattle will continue to use Metcalf in the same fashion as last year since their offense operates better with a big-bodied deep threat to stretch the field. And they do not have anyone else that does that better than Metcalf. This doesn’t mean you should just expect more of the same from the twenty-two-year-old receiver. On the contrary, I am safely expecting his catch rate to increase from 58% to the 65% range. We can also expect the Seahawks to slowly continue his development much like last year. With that, his production will rise to a high-end WR2 for dynasty owners. During the two games played during the playoffs, Metcalf posted a 78.6% catch rate with 11 receptions. He racked up 219 yards and one TD and set the playoff record for yards from a rookie.
Try and acquire Metcalf before you are unable to add him to your roster. You can expect more of his postseason production to continue into his sophomore season.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin is another wide receiver with 58 receptions, 919 yards, and seven TDs – much like the aforementioned D.K. Metcalf. McLaurin is a smaller wideout at 6’0″ tall 208 lbs. He also played in two fewer games than Metcalf. But, he was still able to post a similar stat line. This proves he was worth a bit more in fantasy points per game. We can only expect similar results from McLaurin moving into his second year. Along with more of a guarantee in target share, seeing as he is the sure WR1 on his team at this time. Washington made that clear by adding complementary pieces to the passing attack rather than any formidable target hog to threaten Terry’s role. Free Agency and the draft passed, and Washington decided they had bigger issues in other areas of their football team that they had to address.
McLaurin burst onto the scene with three touchdowns in three games to start his rookie season. NFL defenses were forced to adjust to the rookie, who had flown under the radar because of his 10% college target share at Ohio State, where he was surrounded by other options. It was clear Washington made a steal by taking him as the 12th wideout in the class when five games into the season his RoS pace would have put him over 1,300 yards and with 16 TDs. McLaurin made his best effort to reach a thousand yards in his rookie campaign. He crossed the hundred-yard mark on three different occasions, with a 62.4 % catch rate. However, injuries hampered him from playing in three games throughout the season. Additionally, defenses started to naturally focus on his breakout talent.
Going into his second season, on an offense that will be trailing more often than not, we can expect McLaurin to continue the success he found in his first season. Moving forward, he will be working with Scott Turner, the new offensive coordinator. In Turner’s 9 NFL seasons in various coaching positions, he was able to help Josh Gordon move from 805 yards to over 1,600 yards. If McLaurin receives as much volume as Gordon did, we can expect a similar rise in production. This would make McLaurin a WR1 for years to come in dynasty value.
A comparison for McLaurin going into his second season that should excite owners is T.Y. Hilton‘s second season where he broke out. Hilton went from 50 receptions to 82 in his second season, taking the number one role from an injured Reggie Wayne. I think we all could expect Terry to take a similar step forward, seeing as he doesn’t have a future Hall of Famer in his way. Moving from 58 Receptions to 85 is feasible. With an uptick in targets looming because of a lack of other weapons around, we can expect McLaurin to make a huge jump for fantasy rosters. His connection with Dwayne Haskins from college showed. But, even with Case Keenum, he was able to be fantasy relevant.
No matter which quarterback was trying to move the offense for Washington, McLaurin was a fantasy relevant wide receiver. Regardless of who was passing him the ball.
Conclusion
As the NFL turns towards dynamic offenses that feature aerial attacks of all kinds, we will more than likely see wideouts breaking out earlier than the season before. It used to be that wideouts were not as important as a running back that could handle a heavy workload. Now it is quite obvious a dynamic receiver is worth more than a volume monster halfback. 2nd-year wideouts this season will prove the theory that the NFL is changing rapidly. At this rate, I don’t even feel bold telling you to get out in front of it or that it is happening. But, do your best to grab some of these young wide receiver talents for your dynasty rosters before it is too late. It won’t be long before they’re the players we’re comparing incoming rookies or emerging talents to.
Join me later for Part 2 of this series, where I look at Hunter Renfrow and Marquise Brown.
Feel free to follow me @DFF_MattBull and leave any comments or questions about your team.
