The Contract
Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans have come to an agreement that will keep the bruising running back in town for years to come. First reported by Ian Rapaport, the deal got done just an hour before the 4:00 P.M EST deadline for teams to sign franchise-tagged players to long term deals. While the exact details have yet to be disclosed, we know via Adam Schefter that the deal is a 4-year, $50 million contract with $25.5 million guaranteed. This moves him up a spot from the fifth highest-paid running back by average annual value (AAV) in 2020 to the fourth, leapfrogging David Johnson. More importantly for Henry, it moves him up to fourth in total value, just behind Le’Veon Bell at $52.5 million. With the workhorse back staying in Tennessee, what does this mean for the Titans offense?
The Effect
We can expect to see more of the same style of play from the Titans as we did once the also recently extended Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota; give Derrick Henry the ball and watch out. This smash-mouth style of play led the Titans to the AFC Championship Game against the eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs. On the back of Henry, they made easy work of perennial contender New England and dominated the league favorite Ravens. With Henry getting fed the rock over and over, it opened up the rest of the game for the Titans, allowing rookie A.J. Brown to explode for a 52/1,051/8 line during the regular season. The attention Henry garnered simply made everything easier on the rest of the offense, especially Tannehill who had the best stretch of his career, leading the NFL in passer rating at 117.5. While I am not sure Tannehill can keep up incredible QB play in 2020, he has been successful whenever getting help on the ground. While in Miami, Tannehill had a 100-yard rusher in 13 of his 88 starts. He went 11-2. During his run in Tennessee last year, Ryan got a 100-yard rushing performance seven times (including playoffs). He won all seven games. You can expect head coach Mike Vrabel to continue to force teams to stop Henry. While the efficiency of the passing game might come down to earth, the volume for Derrick is going nowhere.
The Future
Seeing as the contract has $25.5 million guaranteed, we can expect Henry to be in Tennessee at least through the 2020 and 2021 seasons. A rule of thumb I like to preach in dynasty is not to look too far out with your squads. For the most part, I believe you should only be looking about two to three years out when looking at a player’s value. Some owners obsess over youth and try to win six years from now and never focus on now. The assurance of Henry staying in Tennessee on top dollar money should make any owner incredibly delighted. You have a lock RB1 for the next two years, and possibly beyond. At 26 years of age, it’s not unreasonable to expect a player of Henry’s caliber and physical makeup to be able to continue his brutal style of play for the length of this four-year contract. All in all, this is a huge win for the Titans and all your fantasy assets on the team. As long as Henry is eating, we should see players like A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Corey Davis receive little attention or soft coverages. Being able to move the ball consistently means more plays, more quality targets, more red zone opportunities, and more touchdown opportunities. The only losers in this deal, are the opposing teams that unfortunately will have to try and tackle him.
Thanks for reading, what do you think of the Henry extension? Let me know on Twitter @dushanes_ if you want to discuss!
All Salary Cap data derived from Overthecap.com
