PAST PRODUCTION
As a rookie, Calvin Ridley finished as the WR22 in PPR scoring with 13 points per game. Ridley took a step forward averaging 15 PPR points per game as a sophomore. This would have made him finish as the WR18 if not for an abdominal injury. His 16 game pace before the injury was 240 PPR points and the lead touchdown scorer for the Falcons. Calvin Ridley is among an elite list of eight players that have eclipsed 800 receiving yards and 7 TDs in their first two seasons since 2000. In 2019, Ridley had a production premium of +25.6, the sixth-best among NFL wide receivers per Player Profiler. Additionally, Calvin Ridley was the only receiver in the Falcons offense to have above a 55% success rate in all four of the Falcons’ most used personnel groupings.
2020 OUTLOOK
Calvin Ridley is currently projected as Mike Clay’s WR15 this season. Clay’s projection allocates 115 targets to Ridley, equal to his 16 game pace from 2019. From the 2018 to 2019 season, Ridley improved his per-play efficiency from a 50% success rate (50th) to 59% which was 6th in the NFL among players with 60+ targets. The Falcons have the highest number of vacated targets from 2019 with 258. Most of which come from the departures of Austin Hooper, Mohamed Sanu, and Devonta Freeman.
The Falcons added Gurley and Hurst in the offseason. These vacated targets will likely be spread evenly between Jones, Ridley, Gurley and Hurst. No player targeted receivers more than Ryan (420) in 2019 and with no key addition at receiver for 2020 expect either the superior talent in Ridley to escalate to a 1A role to Jones, or the inferior talent in Gage to escalate to a consistent third option in the passing game.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
What’s the outlook for the next 3-5 years? Ridley is still on his rookie contract, the Falcons have him guaranteed through 2023. Ryan and Jones also signed through 2024 with their guaranteed money running through 2023. Jones is 31-years old, expect Ridley to elevate to the WR1 option as Jones ages.
Ridley missed three games over his first two seasons. Due to his smaller frame at 189 lbs. expect Ridley to deal with minor injuries throughout his career. Ridley has not suffered a major injury at the collegiate or NFL level. Ridley is currently being drafted in the 4.06 slot per Fantasy Football calculator. This slots Ridley in as WR21, whereas previously noted Ridley is projected for a WR15 season this year. He also is still two years from reaching his age apex. Ridley is a screaming buy with long term upside as a potential fantasy WR1.
Currently, the Falcons are allocating 41% more of their cap room on the offense than the defense, though it is notable that the Falcons defense exceeded expectations after relieving Dan Quinn of his DC responsibilities. The Falcons decreased their opponents’ passer rating from 115 to 76 and their TD to INT ratio from 19.2 to 10.9 from the first half of the season to the second. Dirk Koetter returned to the Falcons OC position last season, a position which he held from 2012-2014. In those seasons Matt Ryan ranked first, second, second, and sixth in pass attempts per game.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
