Is Blake Jarwin the next breakout fantasy tight end? I know plenty of fantasy owners who would like to know the answer to that question. You can never truly know if a young player will become a consistent fantasy producer but we can look to a few indicators that help us project Jarwin’s future outlook.
CONTRACT & OPPORTUNITY
First, and most importantly, Jarwin just received a three-year $23 million deal as the Dallas Cowboys and Jason Witten parted ways for what appears to be the last time. The new deal solidifies the 25-year-old out of Oklahoma State as the sure-fire starter at the tight end position in Dallas for the next few seasons.
One of the main factors contributing to tight end fantasy success is opportunity and this contract ensures Jarwin should receive the chances he needs to be successful. He played over 50% of the offensive snaps only one time in 2019, something that’s nearly impossible with Witten’s departure and the new contract in the books.
PAST PRODUCTION
Jason Witten returned as the starting tight end for the Cowboys in 2019 and was fairly successful, but Jarwin still managed to find a way to get on the field and prove to be a valuable asset. So much so that Dallas rewarded him with a huge contract. Witten finished as the fantasy TE11 in 2019 with 63 receptions for 529 yards and five touchdowns while Jarwin finished with 31 receptions for 365 yards and three touchdowns. If Jarwin had received 80+ targets as Witten did, he would have likely finished with a stat line that looked something closer to 60 receptions for 700+ yards and six touchdowns.
Witten received double the targets Jarwin was afforded but it’s notable to point out their differences in yards per target. The kind of targets each player received wasn’t the same. Witten averaged 6.4 yards per target while Jarwin averaged 8.9. He was targeted much further down the field, giving him more opportunities to make big plays. Jarwin also averaged 2.5 more yards after the catch per reception. That is a major contrast and will allow the Cowboys to utilize Jarwin in more versatile ways.
The tight end position demanded a 21.87% target share between Witten (14.64%) and Jarwin (7.23%) in 2019, more than Amari Cooper (20.81%) and Michael Gallup’s target (18.87%) share. Jarwin is in line for a massive increase in volume and has proven to be successful even while playing the second fiddle. If Witten finished as the TE11, imagine what Jarwin can do with that kind of workload all to himself.
We can also look for some insight from the Cowboys former quarterbacks coach Jon Kitna. Kitna said, “the sky is the limit with Jarwin, he has a chance to be as good as Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce”.
Clearly, those are lofty expectations for any prospect but encouraging comments from a reliable source close to the situation. Jarwin’s past production and reputation vault him into the top tight end breakout candidates in 2020.
TOARS
Target and output adjusted receiving success (TOARS) is a metric that helps us to detect players who produce when utilized often. It looks at how successful a receiver is based on a combination of their success rate and passer rating delivered to their quarterback. TOARS also considers the number of times a player is targeted. Jarwin provided the fifth-highest passer ratings to his quarterback among tight end with at least 30 targets in 2019.
Blake Jarwin ranked 22nd in overall TOARS rating and had a target and output adjusted receiving success rate of 3.90, one spot below Jonnu Smith, another popular young fantasy tight end prospect. He posted a successful play rating of 56% on just 41 targets. He’s already a proven weapon as the backup tight end and is about to see a significant increase in workload and target share with Witten out of the picture.
DYNASTY NOTE
The window to buy Jarwin at a value has likely passed in most dynasty leagues. He could still be low-profile enough to purchase at a discount but he’s quickly approaching the Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith price point. I’ve seen players like Gesicki moved for mid to late second-round picks and I would certainly pay that to secure a player like Jarwin on a long-term contract.
Blake Jarwin is an intriguing prospect due to guaranteed opportunity based on situation and contract, a proven history of success given the circumstances, and impressive success rates on limited targets.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
