When dealing with small one-week samples, it is important not to overreact to fantasy production. One blown coverage or short touchdown can instantly make a player’s otherwise pedestrian week look great.
This is where usage trends come in. A player’s usage is a better predictor of what kind of future fantasy production we should expect. You can use this to target Dynasty owners who may be otherwise disenchanted with a low macro fantasy output, while you know the underlying factors are healthy. On the other hand, you can also utilize usage trends to see which players may have a concerning trend relative to their historical valuation that you may want to consider moving.
I am not going to highlight everything. These are just the situations that had a lot of pre-season buzz or surprises to expected usage.
Data courtesy of NFL Pro and PFF
1. Your target share leaders after Week 1 (excluding Mon. night)
57% – Jaxon Smith-Njigba
47% – Zay Flowers
41% – Marquise Brown
41% – Garrett Wilson
38% – CeeDee Lamb
38% – Puka Nacua
36% – Drake London
33% – Deebo Samuel
Seattle is expected to run the ball a ton, but Njigba’s 57% target share is nonetheless absurd. Expect a big year from JSN. Justin Fields is known for heavily favoring certain receivers. This year, it’s clear that it is his former running mate from Ohio State, Garrett Wilson. The biggest surprise in the top 10 target share leaders is certainly Deebo Samuel. He was left for dead by many fantasy owners.
2. Xavier Worthy exited the Chiefs’ game after crossing paths with Travis Kelce. He will be out for an extended period of time with a separated shoulder. This leaves an already thin Chiefs pass-catching group even thinner. Rashee Rice is out for another five weeks, so who stands to gain the most value?
Here is the target distribution after Worthy left the game:
Marquise Brown – 16 (Huge buy as Dynasty community cost of just WR82)
Juju Smith-Schuster – 5
Tyquan Thornton – 4
Travis Kelce – 5
Isiah Pacheco – 3
No one else had more than 1.
With more time to game plan, I would expect rookie 7th-round running back Brashard Smith to be involved in the game plan as well.
3. George Pickens, draft ADP of WR 28, amassed just 4 targets on 32 routes run. This was a 12.5% targets per route run. This ranked 7th on the Cowboys. Pickens is priced as the WR26 by the Dynasty community on Keep Trade Cut. Sell George Pickens.
4. Keenan Allen, draft ADP of WR 58, amassed 10 targets on 28 routes run. This was a 35.7% targets per route run, ranking first on the Chargers. Allen is priced as the WR87 by the Dynasty community on Keep Trade Cut. Buy Keenan Allen.
5. Javonte Williams handled 15 of the Cowboys’ 19 RB rush attempts and finished with the highest rushing EPA on the team. He also ran an impressive 22 pass routes. This is excellent usage for a cheaply acquired asset.
6. The Chiefs deployed a running back by committee in Week 1. This is discouraging news for Isiah Pacjheco managers. He had only 5 rush attempts. More worrisome than this is that he handled only 50% of the team’s rushing attempts by running backs. Despite the negative game script, Pacheco also only ran 19 routes. You would like to see more in a negative game script. This was split evenly with Kareem Hunt. This looks like a backfield you want to steer clear of.
7. Omarion Hampton posted a very impressive 94% RB rush attempt share and 80% snap rate. We do need to bear in mind that Najee Harris was just working his way back into the offense and only received 1 attempt. He was credited with 5 missed tackles forced on 15 attempts. An impressive 33% rate.
8. Chase Brown was an RB1 (Top 12) in the second half of last season in fantasy production. He continued this momentum with elite usage in Week 1. Brown handled 100% of the RB rushing attempts for the Bengals. He also garnered 3 receptions.
9. Kenneth Gainwell was firmly the RB2 for the Steelers, out-rushing Kaleb Johnson 10 to 1. 10 touches actually gives him more stand-alone value than many RB2s if you are desperate for an RB starter. He is widely available in redraft leagues and very cheap in Dynasty.
10. Kendre Miller was once again efficient with his touches (5 for 24 yards) behind Alvin Kamara. If he can ever stay healthy, he has the talent to carve out a significant role.
11. Trey Benson is not just a handcuff. He earned 40% of the RB rush attempts. He eclipsed Conner’s yardage to the tune of 69 to 39 yards. Benson has the highest college career missed tackles forced rate of any prospect over the last 2 years. His time may be now. I’d buy before it gets too high.
12. The Jaguars’ backfield was a mystery coming into the season. After 1 week, here was the usage.
- Etienne 16 rush 143 yards
- Bigsby 5 rush 12 yards
- Tuten 3 rush 11 yards
Tank Bigsby looks like the odd man out here. He didn’t get a rush until the game was over. Etienne commanded a far higher rush % than anticipated. Rookies can take time to earn a bigger role, but Etienne clearly seems to be the man in Jacksonville.
13. TreVeyon Henderson will likely have an unconventional path to fantasy relevance. He only had 5 rushes to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 7. Where Henderson will win weeks is in the pass game. He had 6 receptions in Week 1. This is usage you actually like to see for running backs, as pass game usage provides a more consistent, safe weekly floor for running backs in PPR leagues.
14. Deebo Samuel is alive and well. He finished with 10 targets (7 receptions for 77 yards). He was also utilized in the run game with 1 rush for 19 yards. He is valued as the WR54 by the Dynasty community and is a buy at that price.
15. Dylan Sampson received heavy usage. DISCLAIMER: Quinshon Judkins was inactive after just signing his contract. Expect Judkins back in Week 2. That said, Sampson is likely to handle 3rd down work. Judkins is not an elite pass catcher, and Sampson had 8 receptions in Week 1.
16. Tyler Warren ran 73% of the routes and got a 31% target share (9 targets). This is top 5 tight end usage.
17. Harold Fannin was one of my favorite values in Dynasty rookie drafts this year. I wrote about him at length before the NFL draft in this article. He had a record-setting career at Bowling Green and forced the Browns to give him a sizable role in the offense. He led the Browns in targets with 9, converting those into 7 receptions for 63 yards.
18. The fantasy community was in an uproar as Seattle deployed their new run-heavy attack. That would seemingly be good news for Kenneth Walker owners. Unfortunately, it was Zach Charbonnet who commanded the touches. Buy Zach Charbonnet. He may not be the RB1 all year long, but at his price in that offense, he will return value.
19. CMC had the most elite usage of any running back with 10 targets and 22 rush attempts. Am I buying? No. Am I selling? No. He is the definition of high risk, high reward. Calf strains are often a precursor to a torn Achilles. He still does not seem totally right from last year.
20. Buy Keenan Allen. His 29% target share was 10th overall. He is valued as a 3rd round pick by the Dynasty community right now. His last full year with Justin Herbert was just 2 years ago, when he finished as the WR3 in fantasy points per game.
21. Elic Ayomanor is a sneaky buy right now. His 25% target share was right there with Travis Hunter and Tet McMillan (26%) to round out the top 3 rookies. Denver has arguably the best defense in the NFL, so it did not translate into much fantasy production. Look for that to improve in the coming weeks. He’s pretty cheap at an early 3rd round rookie pick value on Keep Trade Cut.
22. Travis Kelce’s Week 1 usage was horrifying. Despite not having Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice, he was only able to garner a 10.5% target share. This is a major sell window for Kelce if you own any shares. Prospective trade partners may see an opportunity for targets with Worthy and Rice out. If he has any resurgence, it will almost surely be temporary until Rice returns.
23. Miami’s offense is a complete mess. McDaniel is on the hottest of seats. Dynasty owners want no part of Miami. This presents an opportunity. One attractive buy low is Malik Washington. He led Miami in routes run. Washington had the 2nd-highest weighted dominator I’ve recorded in my WR1 model. You can buy him for an early 4th right now, according to Keep Trade Cut.
24. Buy Kayshon Boutte. Boutte led the Patriots in targets and yards in Week 1. He is priced as the WR92, a 4th-round value on Keep Trade Cut.
25. Juwan Johnson had 11 targets in Week 1, 2nd on the Saints to Chris Olave. Curious to see if this was a trend, I looked at the last 4 weeks of 2024 when Rattler started for the Saints. The player who led the Saints in targets over that period was Juwan Johnson. You can buy Juwan Johnson for a 4th-round pick right now.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. All of my articles have one goal in common. That goal is to provide you, our member, with actionable advice that can improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy or Blue Sky @forcefantasy.bsky.social. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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